View Full Version : Variable Staking Plan for Target Sum. Betting.

02-12-2014, 03:39 PM
This is a completely new venture for me and I invite anyone to join me, watch me and laugh, or watch me and wish you'd joined in earlier.

There will be no Bank to start. We will generate our own personal BANK.

The BANK will be generated by the success of the bets placed.
Any advised stakes will be the stakes that I use on any given day.
Stakes may remain constant until the BANK reaches a figure that requires a stake increase as we will roughly use 5% of the BANK as our staking plan.
Of course we will require patience, accept our losses and remove from the BANK our original stakes so that asap we will be playing with the bookies money.

As there will be fewer selections, made less often, it will require a discipline to keep your eventual BANK separate from your other monies. This will also be a trial of my own personal discipline as well. ;)

For anyone unfamiliar with betting, feel free to ask any questions at any time and of course any gambling you do is your own personal responsib

03-12-2014, 09:10 AM
For Wednesday Dec 3rd,


Several possibilities but not a stand-out option.
There will be selections on the other thread though for todays racing.

03-12-2014, 03:46 PM
Sorry claiton

1. How do you place your first bet with no starting bank - you obviously aren't placing these bets for real.
2. Why bother?

Whatever your need to do this just get on with it! There must be something better you can do with your time that will be more rewarding - both financially and spiritually at a guess!

03-12-2014, 06:36 PM
Hello again sabden, I don't consider an initial bet as being a bank unless I'm only using a percentage of my bank. A bank has to be a fund that is constant and available. For this process I hope to build to a bank from scratch. If you want to split hairs, you are probably correct.

Spiritually I am a lost cause my friend but thank-you for your best wishes yet again. I know they must be your very best wishes, you being such a spiritual person.

Maybe you'd like to share some of your spiritual timetable with us, a daily blog to help us all feel better about ourselves. ;D

04-12-2014, 11:36 AM
For anyone and that includes you sabden, I am going for a questionable first selection but any choice is a 'gamble'.

This horse has changed stables since her last run 21 days ago when she was beaten 3 and 3/4 lengths into 4th which was a little below her best and yet her starting price of 16/1 suggests there was no great stable confidence behind him on the day when she was ridden by 5 pound claimer Rachael Kneller.

She is now with Jamie Osborne who has booked the services of Adam Kirby who is a very talented jockey who performs well on the all-weather tracks. The horse has won 4 times at 5f from 14 runs, all victories on the all-weather, from 7 runs. Stable is in good form so I am hoping that with a change of surroundings and with Kirby aboard she may be ready for her 5th win or at least a place.

So the selection is,

Stake 5ew

Total 10

Price taken 11/2 best odds guaranteed at Paddy Power. Good luck everyone.

04-12-2014, 04:13 PM
However Baytown kestrel runs there will be another bet tomorrow and again it will be 5ew.

04-12-2014, 05:24 PM
The message will be on by 10-00 tomorrow.

Bet will be at Lingfield.

05-12-2014, 11:07 AM
Apologies for the late message.

Todays bet is,

2-40 Lin Novellen Lad 5ew

I have 85/40 'bog' (best odds guaranteed)

Best current high street odds are,

9/4 'bog'

Betfred + Ladbrokes. Good luck everyone.

05-12-2014, 11:16 AM
Timeform selection for the race.
Won C+D 06/12/2013
2nd last time, beaten 1/2 length.
On the flat 40 runs, 6 wins.
All weather 20 runs, 3 wins.
Course and distance, 7 runs, 2 wins.

NOVELLEN LAD is a 9yr old bay gelding trained by WJ MUSSON and ridden today by R Winston who has ridden him to 2 previous wins, 1 of them here.

Timeform comments,

Shaped very well when 2nd over C+D 3 weeks ago faring best of those held up and looks ready to cash in on a very attractive handicap rating. Was successful from 9 pounds higher a year ago. Has a good chance on form.

05-12-2014, 06:24 PM
Novellen Lad, maybe the horse wasn't showing his best and was never going to win, however the jockey broke well but allowed the horse to check and filter back so eventually had to thread his way through the field. He did make some late progress to finish a fairly close up 5th. If he had laid handy he would certainly have been involved in the finish but I'm not sure he would have won.

There will be no bet tomorrow although I have narrowed the Becher Chase down to four and as several firms are offering 5 places. I was tempted to back them all to show a profit, but I'll try and find better value than that.

Enjoy your weekend.

06-12-2014, 10:07 AM
I have burnt the midnight oil on this one and have decided that there is a horse that stands out on several aspects and I am now going to place a bet that hopefully will get us up and running.

3-00 San GODS OWN

Stake 5ew
Total stake 10

Although we are currently 20 down we bet with the same mindset each time.

Good luck everyone.

06-12-2014, 10:28 AM
Do you do this full time?

I never get how anyone can predict a horse race when there are so many variables.

I'm yet to see any real consistent profit from any of these types of posts on here. You will get the odd win but it seems it doesn't take a lot to wipe out these with losses.

06-12-2014, 10:49 AM
No, I don't do this full-time but I am devoting more time to it than I used to do clarethomer.

06-12-2014, 10:50 AM
For information purposes I have placed my bet with Corals and have 9/2 (bog)

06-12-2014, 08:38 PM
Picking plenty of winners but yet to get started on this endeavour.
Patience required at the moment, mainly by myself. Very frustrating but things will get better soon.

07-12-2014, 11:33 AM
No selection today ;D

08-12-2014, 06:57 AM
No selection today either.

08-12-2014, 06:56 PM
Tuesday 9th December,

Sou 2-00 I'M SUPER TOO

Stake 5ew 4/1 bog @ Corals

08-12-2014, 08:59 PM
Is anybody even in on this with you?

09-12-2014, 03:47 AM
Im watching with interest.

09-12-2014, 04:26 PM
4 consecutive LOSERS but I'm working hard to correct this and will be amazed if my next selection doesn't do much better. (Could hardly do worse). Might be trying too hard.

Tomorrow, Wed 10th Dec,

3-00 Lin MATRAASH 5ew 4/1 Bet365 bog. I'm expecting a better price to be on offer once the other firms 'price up'.
Hoping for 5/1 or 11/2.

10-12-2014, 02:22 PM
Poor run to make it 5 consecutive losers. Guess I'll just have to be patient or write off the experiment, but I don't want to do that just yet. I can be a stubborn bugger at times. :?

11-12-2014, 06:13 AM
No selection for today, Thurs 11th Dec.

11-12-2014, 06:54 PM
No selection for Friday 12th December.

13-12-2014, 10:42 AM
2 selections today,


Both bog.

Both 5ew

Stake 20

13-12-2014, 07:06 PM
At last. That is a relief.

5 previous losers + 2 selections today means a total stake so far of 7 bets, all at 5ew, a total of 70.

VERY FIRST BLADE 7/1 bog 1/4 odds, Rtn 53-75.
SPES NOSTRA 6/1 bog. SP 8/1, Rtn 13-00

Stakes, so far 70.00
Returns so far 66-75

Currently losing 0.25

Looking better.

14-12-2014, 07:22 AM
Try doing the sums again ;D

15-12-2014, 08:44 AM

Thanks Westmids.

Should read,

LOSS of 3-25.

No selection today.

Having a few days in London from tomorrow until Friday, Christmas shopping, returning on Friday. Earliest selections will be Saturday.

Good luck everyone.

20-12-2014, 11:20 AM
Great time in London but now back to the serious attempt to make money.

1 selection today,

Asc 3-30 HELLO GEORGE 14/1 ew bog

14/1 freely available.

Bet 365, skybet and Ladbrokes all 5 places and bog.
good luck everyone.

21-12-2014, 09:22 AM
Currently standing at a loss of 13-25.

Todays selection,

12-20 Th TWO IN A ROW, Corals 16/1 bog


21-12-2014, 10:19 PM
Another 10 down the drain. I'll happily take your cash if you want to keep giving it away.?

21-12-2014, 10:26 PM
As good a lesson in gambling as you're likely to see.

Claiton is, at least, being (as far as I can see) honest with his losses here. That is to be admired.

Save your money folks.

22-12-2014, 07:22 AM
Current loss 23-25.

Patience is the keyword here.

Todays selection,

5-10 w PERCYS PRINCESS 5ew @ 4/1 Betfair bog.

4/1 is generally available at the moment.
Have to say I was expecting a better price so Maybe the 'best odds guaranteed' will come into play here.

22-12-2014, 07:37 AM
20 days and you are still at a position of loss.

You are not being unlucky but just a victim of trying to predict the result of an outcome which cannot be predicted with consistency and/or accuracy.

I bet I could make more money today through a placing money against a sporting event without any risk

22-12-2014, 04:49 PM
Well Clarethomer, I have now just about moved into PROFIT.

Stake today 10
Return 35

Profit 25
Total Stake






Work in progress.;D

22-12-2014, 06:16 PM
Well done on the winner. I will be around 50 profit with some matched betting that I did yesterday and will have followed up on by close of play today. It's a whole nicer feeling knowing you have won before the game has kicked off

23-12-2014, 10:26 AM
My dad's bigger than your dad.

Well done you, clarethomer.

So you are just talking about another form of gambling. Well good luck to you in your gambling of choice.

Like a lot of things in life, it's just a matter of opinion, not a matter of fact.

At least Rowls was giving a very sensible post about not gambling at all which I fully endorse by the way. But I choose to have a gamble, a regular gamble and I'm trying to prove to myself, in a public way, that it is possible to make gambling pay.

It is not for everyone, and anyone can lose heavily over a short or long period.

But I am attempting two different ways of showing that with some self-imposed rules/guidelines it can be fun and not too dangerous on the pocket. Nothing more than that.

I wouldn't criticise either your lifestyle or your method of gambling, so why you choose to, well I'm not really sure.
If you want people to believe that you have a better way then why not 'put up or shut up', to coin an old but still popular

23-12-2014, 11:47 AM
Right, back to the subject in hand.

1 selection on 27th Sat, Welsh Grand National. David Pipe saddles Amigo but the Pipe's do not have a good record in the race, so that puts me off.
Mountainous, last year's winner, trained by Richard Lee. If winning this year, Lee will have trained 3 winners of the race in 4 years.

So my selection is HAWKES POINT @ 14/1 with Betfair, 1/4 odds first 4, trained by Paul Nicholls who has a good record in the race, is a course winner and has had a prep race at Chepstow this season.

The same fact also applies to the two previously mentioned horses.

23-12-2014, 12:17 PM
Wasn't meant to come across in the way you have clearly taken it.

Matched betting is risk free providing you can read odds and understand how to back and lay.

Yesterday, I backed Chelsea to win, I also laid them to win. I took a 1.39 loss - however I received a risk free bet in play which at half time I backed over 3.5 goals and then laid the same. If there was less than 3.5 goals, my bet would be refunded and if they did, I had laid so that I would profit either way.

Absolutely no gamble involved because I covered all bases.

My point about guaranteeing more was that I already knew what I would win - your methods seem to so down to luck - you cannot predict a jockey or horse falling etc. You will win every now and then- you will go through periods of good and bad streaks. If you want consistent profits- this is not ideal and to be fair I don't intend to preach to you but as with many of these threads, you will get to a point where you will realise your bets are probably no mor

23-12-2014, 12:51 PM
I think what Clarethomer is referring to is the bet 365 offer of a free risk free bet in play to the same value as any pre match bet. I guaranteed a profit on the Liverpool v Man Utd, Liverpool v Arsenal and Stoke v Chelsea by covering all match results and getting cash back on the in play bet if it loses. It's an offer designed by bet365 to get people into the habit of in play betting and I doubt they will keep it much longer. On the other hand I have banked 600 following your tips (when I have time in the last 2 months. One bet i backed at 14-1 where the sp was 4-1, so the sp's don't tell the full story. Keep it up Claiton,it's much appreciated!!:D

24-12-2014, 09:20 AM
Ok, first of all I must apologise clarethomer. Now that you have explained more fully it seems much less of a snipe. As I say we all have our own preferences and each to their own. But if I was betting in play or using matched bets it would be much more difficult to relay to others. I do bet in play occasionally on televised football but probably only 4 or 5 times a season.

I prefer betting in play on match-play golf and limited overs cricket when the odds changes are usually massive over-reactions. But again I am then fully focused on that game to the extent that I wouldn't want to post as that would be a distraction.
I confess to not using matched bets.

Dejavu, thanks for your comments. I will certainly be continuing as I enjoy the daily skirmishes and continuing challenge.
Also I like to keep things nice and simple so that anyone can enjoy just watching or having a flutter themselves.

On this particular thread I like to think that inexperienced backers might enjoy a slow and ste

24-12-2014, 09:35 AM
Boxing Day, no selection.

2 horses at Wolverhampton are currently expected to be value odds, but I can't get myself confident enough that they will give a good account of themselves as they are in and out performers.

So the next bet will be as selected for the Welsh Grand National and posted earlier. Here's hoping that in 2015 we will be betting with the bookies money.

27-12-2014, 08:50 AM
Resuming the quest for the Holy Grail.

2-55 Leo GROODY HILL 5ew @9/1 Ladbrokes bog
8/1 generally.

Good luck everyone.

28-12-2014, 09:59 AM
2 for today.

12-50 Leop TTEBBOB 10/1 @ B'Fred, Lad, Coral.

3-20 Ling KAKAPUKA 9/1 @ P Power, W Hill.

2 5ew singles

28-12-2014, 10:05 AM
Record to date,

Stakes 120-00
Return 101-75

Running LOSS of 18-25.

29-12-2014, 09:13 AM
2 losers,

Losing 38-25.

No selection today.

30-12-2014, 06:32 AM
1 selection,

4-00 T BARAMINE 5ew 15/2 bog skybet

7/1 bet365
13/2 William Hill

Others 6/1 or SP

30-12-2014, 06:28 PM
BAR A MINE ran in snatches, must have been a very difficult ride. Not sure if he is un-genuine or just had an off-day. Won't be looking to see when he next runs.

Current LOSS of 48-25.

Must do better.