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View Full Version : O/T Brexit film - a (long but thoughtful) response...



harpo88
03-06-2016, 04:36 PM
Just watched the Brexit film on recommendation from another poster, and took some notes for my own interest that got very long in the end but here goes:

Firstly it goes without saying that it’s all selectively edited and unscientific, but that’s true of the comments on both sides of the debate. Secondly as a note I was and still am for remain. My views before watching were that arguments about trade deals and economics are quite unprecise and we’ve little way of knowing what’s most likely to happen, though I suppose you have to go on weight of opinion if you want to judge it on those lines. But it seems to me that the more popular argument for leave is about ‘taking control back’.

On this: I think the possibilities of 'taking control back' with Brexit are being massively oversold. The influence that we as citizens have on how the UK is run is little better than the EU. ‘Democracy’ needs to be seen as more than just a right to vote – it’s a right to take part in all parts of the p

gm_gm
03-06-2016, 04:40 PM
Its clear from your comments you didn't understand the context being from an already entrenched position, secondly your grasp of economics is a hindrance when trying understand the arguments...theres nothing wrong with that, it just means that if you look deep into a complex puzzle without expertise or understanding you wont be able to reconcile it.

a123
03-06-2016, 04:52 PM
I love this assertion by the remain camp that all health & safety legislation and workers rights come from the EU and the nasty Tories will set about repealing it all on 24th June 2016 if we vote to leave.

It is absolute total and utter garbage, it simply will not happen as it would be political suicide for any party to even contemplate it.

The difference is the EU could do it and we would have F all influence on it as we have no direct link to be able to vote out those making the legislation.

gm_gm
03-06-2016, 04:55 PM
I love this assertion by the remain camp that all health & safety legislation and workers rights come from the EU and the nasty Tories will set about repealing it all on 24th June 2016 if we vote to leave.

It is absolute total and utter garbage, it simply will not happen as it would be political suicide for any party to even contemplate it.

The difference is the EU could do it and we would have F all influence on it as we have no direct link to be able to vote out those making the legislation.

Our influence is negative, we have had 72 measure appeals and guess how many we have won?

NONE

harpo88
03-06-2016, 05:18 PM
I wouldn't say entrenched gm, I'm always open to having my mind changed, just that this didn't do it for me. I found the parts about the fishing industry and trade deals interesting and illuminating, and will go and read about them more before I make any conclusions based on this one piece.

My grasp of economics is not completely hopeless (it was a third of my degree and have retained an interest since if that doesn't make me sound like too much of a tosspiece) but there weren't any actual numbers in this. You're right that it's complex and there are so many unknowns, which is why I'm more likely to be swayed by the balance of opinion on the economics case - I understand that's in favour of remain. But because it's quite split on that, and I don't think whether stay or leave we'll either be in the land of milk and honey or in total ruin, it's not the main factor for me. Also economic arguments can't be totally objective, otherwise there wouldn't be an argument.

And a123, I'm not

jolly_roger
03-06-2016, 05:21 PM
Deutschland Deutschland über alles

gm_gm
03-06-2016, 05:43 PM
Harpo88 listen to professor minfords commons select committee interview it's enlightening. He doesn't engage fully around the complexity levers but he does explain that having no trade agreements is beneficial.

Effectively, the EU exists to enforce the power of corporate entities to through EU policies drives up prices, creates a dominance of big companies and suppresses smaller companies.

How much tax did Shell pay last year?

jolly_roger
03-06-2016, 06:04 PM
Look, there's something simple here, if in the UK you make a quality product that's attractively priced then member countries of the EU will buy it even if we aren't part of the EU.

Does the EU refuse to buy goods from the USA, China, India or Canada?

Of course not.

We don't need the expensive club membership of the EU.

a123
03-06-2016, 06:18 PM
Harpo88 I'm not saying that you personally have said that we will go back to the dark ages.

However listening to the ones heading up the remain campaign we will go back to the 19th century, back to putting urchins up chimneys, the workhouse, rickets, whooping cough, diphtheria and be getting ready for the 3rd world war.

Trade would cease with Europe over night and we would be cast adrift with massive tariffs, I'm sure the German car industry won't miss the £16bn of Audi's, BMW's, Mercedes, VW's they export to the UK every year for one example, it works both ways you know.

It absolute b@ll@cks and I for one am sick of being treated like an idiot who can be scared into voting for something that is rotten to the core and that I am not capable to absorb the facts around the debate and make an informed decision.

jolly_roger
03-06-2016, 06:21 PM
Trade WILL NOT stop overnight, they aren't that stupid.

Losing sales in the UK is the last thing the VW Audi group wants at the moment.

millmoormagic
03-06-2016, 06:22 PM
Look, there's something simple here, if in the UK you make a quality product that's attractively priced then member countries of the EU will buy it even if we aren't part of the EU.

Does the EU refuse to buy goods from the USA, China, India or Canada?

Of course not.

We don't need the expensive club membership of the EU.

All very good, what about the extra tariffs placed on those quality products, which will make them un-attractively priced, the company making them will probably then use the newly passed legislation to get rid of a few more of it's workers to drive down their costs, drop the wages of those stll in work, all allowed of course, because the gov't has repealed many of the decent workers rights gained over the years.....just sayng.. ;D

a123
03-06-2016, 06:25 PM
JR I'm speaking from the Remain camp's scare mongering position.

The Germans will still sell us cars, the French will still sell us wine, we import more goods from Europe than we export to them, it would be the classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

a123
03-06-2016, 06:31 PM
Look, there's something simple here, if in the UK you make a quality product that's attractively priced then member countries of the EU will buy it even if we aren't part of the EU.

Does the EU refuse to buy goods from the USA, China, India or Canada?

Of course not.

We don't need the expensive club membership of the EU.

All very good, what about the extra tariffs placed on those quality products, which will make them un-attractively priced, the company making them will probably then use the newly passed legislation to get rid of a few more of it's workers to drive down their costs, drop the wages of those stll in work, all allowed of course, because the gov't has repealed many of the decent workers rights gained over the years.....just sayng.. ;D [/quote]

Simple it works both ways we do exactly the same with the goods they want to export to the UK which will have the sam

harpo88
03-06-2016, 06:37 PM
Cheers gm, interesting that and I take the point, but as Minford admits himself, it's not certain that the completely free market he's saying should happen will happen. As I said whether we stay or leave I don't think either action will have us all flush with cash or all destitute on the street. You'd expect there to be a compromise and trade wise we'll be ok. Also not certain that there won't be some sort of repercussions - things like elections coming up next year in several EU countries might well have an impact on what sort of arrangements, trade or otherwise, we end up with as they won't want to be seen as a soft touch to their own citizens. All I'm saying is it's not hard and fast, despite 88% of 600 economists in a recent poll saying there'd be long term damage to our GDP if we leave - we all know they can get it wrong.

And I'm not sure that the EU is the only polity that encourages or allows the dominance of big companies by one means or another. Similarly, we'll have to wo

millmoormagic
03-06-2016, 06:39 PM
Complete nonsense? i don't think so, given the track record of the current gov't who are trying every angle to get around EU employment law currently, and who want to get rid of the EU working time directive, and would do if we vote leave...

brassgnat
03-06-2016, 06:40 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

I would vote out, but not for the reasons the main figures in BREXIT say.
A

harpo88
03-06-2016, 06:40 PM
JR I'm speaking from the Remain camp's scare mongering position.

The Germans will still sell us cars, the French will still sell us wine, we import more goods from Europe than we export to them, it would be the classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Think most people will agree the campaign's been pretty horrible in a number of ways and the exaggerated claims on both sides reflect badly on politicians. I'm trying to find other sources of information and you get far more nuance talking to real people rather than listening to the official campaigns.

a123
03-06-2016, 06:49 PM
Complete nonsense? i don't think so, given the track record of the current gov't who are trying every angle to get around EU employment law currently, and who want to get rid of the EU working time directive, and would do if we vote leave...

Workers already have an opt out of the working time directive if they choose to use it.

The same government who have brought in the living wage and upped the starting point of income tax rates to help the low paid, why would they do this if they want to drive the workers into the ground?

millmoormagic
03-06-2016, 06:57 PM
Have you experienced the opt out of the working time directive?, basically, sign this or find another job, and it's this type of opt out that this gov't has championed, because that's what they do. A sfor what this gov't has done for the working man, well that's really laughable to be honest, this gov't has presided over the rapid and disgraceful rise in poverty in this country, working people struggling to put food on the table and food banks popping up all over the place to feed them, you must have blinkers on to be honest.

gm_gm
03-06-2016, 07:01 PM
[quote="harpo88"]Cheers gm, interesting that and I take the point, but as Minford admits himself, it's not certain that the completely free market he's saying should happen will happen. As I said whether we stay or leave I don't think either action will have us all flush with cash or all destitute on the street. You'd expect there to be a compromise and trade wise we'll be ok. Also not certain that there won't be some sort of repercussions - things like elections coming up next year in several EU countries might well have an impact on what sort of arrangements, trade or otherwise, we end up with as they won't want to be seen as a soft touch to their own citizens. All I'm saying is it's not hard and fast, despite 88% of 600 economists in a recent poll saying there'd be long term damage to our GDP if we leave - we all know they can get it wrong.

And I'm not sure that the EU is the only polity that encourages or allows the dominance of big companies by one mea

harpo88
03-06-2016, 07:33 PM
I don't doubt your sincerity, honesty and good nature gm but on both sides there are pragmatic, idealistic and self-interested considerations.

jolly_roger
03-06-2016, 08:09 PM
Complete nonsense? i don't think so, given the track record of the current gov't who are trying every angle to get around EU employment law currently, and who want to get rid of the EU working time directive, and would do if we vote leave...

There's no need to get around employment law it's being undermined anyway as employers take on cheap foreign labour using the excuse that "home grown Brits" won't do it. Take on hoards of Romanians

millmoormagic
03-06-2016, 08:17 PM
Cheap foreign labour on the same money as anyone else who wants it, and cheap labour doesn't undermine employment law, employers do as you've just alluded to...

walter10
04-06-2016, 07:34 AM
Cheers gm, interesting that and I take the point, but as Minford admits himself, it's not certain that the completely free market he's saying should happen will happen. As I said whether we stay or leave I


Having said that...will be glad on June 24th when this is over, England are heading towards the Euros title and we can look forward to Stubbs' playoff push - UTM!

Harpo 91% of GDP falls outside the EU this is expanding year on year, the countries outside the EU would trade ,with us in more favorable circumstances if we were not in it.

I take your point about no guarantees, but that works both ways, EU article 50 allows us to negotiate a withdrawal there are no set in stone barriers...the remain campaign is based on self interest and protectionism, I firmly believe we would be FAR better off outside the EU....I have investment interests inside the EU which are not inconsiderable but w

jolly_roger
04-06-2016, 08:21 AM
Cheap foreign labour on the same money as anyone else who wants it, and cheap labour doesn't undermine employment law, employers do as you've just alluded to...

Ok reduce the number of foreigners and employers would have to improve wages to attract labour.

That would be a bad thing?

Jimmy Lallacs
04-06-2016, 06:59 PM
Good discussion on this thread.
I think the the consensus would agree around a reformed EU reverting to its original stated principles of free market.
( Not the underhand federalist ideas slyly understood by Jean Monnet and Edward Heath).
If we vote with the Remainiacs, we are on a long irreversible path towards political union, (if in doubt google the five presidents report).
If we vote for independence, I think that within the two years we will renegotiate our position and we will have the support of like minded democrats in France, Germany and the Czech Repubolic also wanting to free themselves from the anti-democratic straitjacket which the EU commissioners have gradualy imposed on free nations.
I really do believe that for the third time in 100 years the UK can save the whole of Europe from a corporatocracy that no one has voted in and in no way can vote out.

Timbertop
04-06-2016, 07:24 PM
We are much better than being reduced to Germany's lapdogs. Vote leave.

millmoormagic
04-06-2016, 10:38 PM
Cheap foreign labour on the same money as anyone else who wants it, and cheap labour doesn't undermine employment law, employers do as you've just alluded to...

Ok reduce the number of foreigners and employers would have to improve wages to attract labour.

That would be a bad thing?

[/quote]

Ultimately yes, because these same employers, who have relied on cheap labour, would not be able to compete and go to the wall, you see, that's the way in a 'free market' isn't it. Then it would be the immigrants fault, in your eyes, for the company going down, wouldn't it??

jolly_roger
04-06-2016, 11:20 PM
EU free trade, countries not wanting to trade with us?

Buy a new home shirt.............they are made in Turkey


There's a lesson there somewhere for the easily scared.

great_fire
05-06-2016, 12:58 AM
EU army is next on the agenda.

millmoormagic
05-06-2016, 08:35 AM
The thing is, whatever the result of the poll, everyone will get on with their lives, we'll still have a sheite gov't ripping ordinary folk off, i just think that there's really no need to put that extra hassle on many people in the short term, as there's no doubt that leving will affect the economics of Britain in the short term, i think that's now a given on all sides. As for a EU army, i don't really get the hysteria this has caused, there's no way that we'd hand over control of OUR armed forces to anyone, we may add some of our troops to an EU army.

jolly_roger
05-06-2016, 09:05 AM
Interesting that comment about shyte government. Cameron and Osborn are out on a limb and a leave vote will finish them off and split the Tory party.

A heaven sent opportunity for the Labour Party you would think, but no, after years of being anti EU Jeremy Corbyn suddenly thinks it's a good idea and wants Labour supporters to vote stay even though cheap foreign labour will undermine wages for the lower paid.

Labour supporters voting stay will be by default keeping this shyte government in power and strengthen Cameron's position and standing.

millmoormagic
05-06-2016, 09:33 AM
You keep on this track about "cheap labour" driving wages down, whether we're in or out, that same "cheap labour" will continue to come into Britain.
As for the stuff about the gov't, i totally agree, and that's why this is a difficult one for me, on one side, if the country votes to leave, i actually do think that it will strengthen the Labour party, as it would probably take back the voters who have gone over to Ukip, as then Ukip would be without a purpose and fade off, if the country votes to remain, like you said, the same clowns running the country, albeit though that the tory party will be dangerously split, in my opinion.

caytonmiller
05-06-2016, 11:52 AM
[quote="millmoormagic" will continue to come into Britain.
As for the stuff about the gov't, i totally agree, and that's why this is a difficult one for me, on one side, if the country votes to leave, i actually do think that it will strengthen the Labour party, as it would probably take back the voters who have gone over to Ukip, as then Ukip would be without a purpose and fade off, if the country votes to remain, like you said, the same clowns running the country, albeit though that the tory party will be dangerously split, in my opinion.[/quote]

perfect reason for leaving. stay and parties like ukip become stronger.

interesting that this message board its 75/25% in favour of leave.
Do i think we will? no why because the fat cats wont allow it...

youngsters unemployment in several eu countrys is well over 40% if these same youn

harpo88
05-06-2016, 12:38 PM
[quote="caytonmiller" will continue to come into Britain.
As for the stuff about the gov't, i totally agree, and that's why this is a difficult one for me, on one side, if the country votes to leave, i actually do think that it will strengthen the Labour party, as it would probably take back the voters who have gone over to Ukip, as then Ukip would be without a purpose and fade off, if the country votes to remain, like you said, the same clowns running the country, albeit though that the tory party will be dangerously split, in my opinion.[/quote]

perfect reason for leaving. stay and parties like ukip become stronger.

interesting that this message board its 75/25% in favour of leave.
Do i think we will? no why because the fat cats wont allow it...

youngsters unemployment in several eu

jolly_roger
05-06-2016, 09:57 PM
Jobless EU migrants got a total of about £890 million in benefits paid to them last year.

A jobless EU migrant pays no tax but has full access to the NHS and other "free" services

However we are not on our own, Germany is considering a 5 year ban on paying benefits to EU migrants. If they do bring that into German law where will their jobless EU migrants go?

No prizes for guessing.

walter10
06-06-2016, 05:37 AM
And if we left and got rid of all low paid EU workers and paid a higher rate the UK workers it would lead to inflation - but that, we are told, is scaremongering.

walter10
06-06-2016, 05:51 AM
If Germany are able to adopt a 5 year ban on paying EU migrants benefits then the precedent is set in EU law and we can do the same.

Some people are easily scared Jolly.

walter10
06-06-2016, 06:07 AM
I hear there are a similar number of jobless British immigrants in other EU countries as there are unemployed migrants from other EU countries here. Jobless Brits pay no tax and get access to free healthcare in other EU countries. If we voted out it would be a straight swap - British immigrants return here as EU immigrants return.