My view of the remaining games.

All the teams in the Premier League have now played 22 of their scheduled 38 games. In recent seasons 38 points has been the safety net for staying in the division. Therefore with 16 games to go this is how I see the remainder of the season.

Huddersfield have 11pts and therefore need to accumulate another 27 points, this equals 9 wins=over 50% I think not.
Fulham have 14 pts and therefore need to accumulate another 24 points, this equals 8 wins= 50% I think not.
Newcastle have 18 points and therefore need to accumulate 20 points, this equals 6 wins and 2 draws, possible, but!
Cardiff have 19 points and therefore need to accumulate 19 points, this equals 6 wins and a draw, possible, but!
Southampton have 19 points and therefore need to accumulate 19 points, this equals 6 wins and a draw, possible, but!
Burnley have 21 points and therefore need to accumulate 17 points, this equals 5 wins and 2 draws. Possible.
Crystal Palace have 22 points and therefore need to accumulate 16 points, this equals 5 wins and 1 draw. Very possible.

Without looking up all the remaining fixtures it is certain that these seven clubs will have to play one another at least once before the season end. I would think that all the middle table teams, Brighton in 13th place up to Watford in 7th are safe. However, there will always be sides looking over their shoulders until 38 points are reached.

Huddersfield are a near certainty to go down. They are almost certainly not going to upgrade at the manager position and won't be splashing cash either. I think they'll go down the Burnley route and try to yo-yo back up and build the club with parachute payments.

Can't see Fulham staying up. Need to shore up the defense, but all their talent is in the attack but they've got nothing to show for it with only 20 goals on the season. They can say goodbye to the Prem and goodbye to Sessegnon.

The other spot is tricky. Newcastle have a quality manager but aren't willing to strengthen the squad. Southampton were a mess under Hughes but I liked their replacement pick. He's got them playing better. Cardiff have grit, but not much else. Burnley don't play attractive, but I can see them eeking out the points. Palace usually start playing better the second half of the season.

I think Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff will go down. If Cardiff stay up, it'll have more to do with incompetence of teams around them than their own success.

Very thorough analysis Abbo! I would agree with Mich in that I think Fulham and Huddersfield are done. I think it will be between Cardiff and Burnley for the last slot, Crystal Palace have got a half decent team really and Southampton the same, I think they are just a little bit too good to go down. But ya never know!!

I think that there is an interesting article on the BBC football page that connects to this topic:

Transfer window: Why are strikers so in demand this January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46822889

Some interesting stats there Wolfie.

The big problem is that if you are a half decent striker, do you want to move to a team near the bottom, when there is a very good chance that you will be relegated?

We are lucky to have decent backing at the moment and we can feed from the top table, unlike previous seasons when we have been forced to pick up the scraps that the top teams do not want.


I am not totally convinced that we will make a purchase this month, with Nuno sticking with what we have. More transfers do not send a promising message to the lads in the academy, and we need to start giving some of these lads experience at the top level.

Two games further in and Huddersfield look doomed.
Cardiff are having a difficult time and are in deep trouble.
Fulham had a good win last night but are still 5 points from safety with a poor goal difference.
Southampton play Palace tonight and both have 22points. A win for either tonight would see them leapfrog both Burnley and Newcastle.
There still appears to be seven teams that could go face the drop.

With us to play Newcastle tonight, I have had another look at the Premier League Table. Huddersfield are doomed as are Fulham, but I note that Brighton, who I thought were safe, are now looking uncomfortable in 14th place. They have 27 points along with Palace and Burnley, should Newcastle win tonight it will also put them on 27. Palace, Brighton and Burnley are only 3 points above the relegation spots and the pressure is on.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by abbobrom

With us to play Newcastle tonight, I have had another look at the Premier League Table. Huddersfield are doomed as are Fulham, but I note that Brighton, who I thought were safe, are now looking uncomfortable in 14th place. They have 27 points along with Palace and Burnley, should Newcastle win tonight it will also put them on 27. Palace, Brighton and Burnley are only 3 points above the relegation spots and the pressure is on.

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Sorry (or maybe I'm not !!) to appear condescending ...... but is'int nice to be able to look DOWN on this and sigh satisfactorily ....

I thought I would bump this thread up again. It would appear that from when I first posted, Brighton are the team that have been in freefall, and was not thought of in my original piece as a possible candidate for relegation.