A.I. Prediction for next Season

[moicher]

For fun: I asked Gemini A.I. to do in-depth research into the question "Where would you predict Dundee United to finish next season in the SPL"

Here's what it came up with.

Dundee United's 2025-26 Scottish Premiership Outlook: A Data-Driven Prediction
I. Introduction: Setting the Stage for the New Season
Dundee United embarks on the 2025-26 Scottish Premiership season following a remarkably successful return to the top flight. Having been promoted from the Scottish Championship at the close of the 2023-24 season, the 2024-25 campaign saw them secure a commendable 4th place finish in the Scottish Premiership. This upcoming season marks their second consecutive year in the Premiership, a significant achievement for a recently promoted club. Beyond their domestic league commitments, Dundee United will also face the added demands of participating in the UEFA Conference League, alongside the traditional Scottish League Cup and Scottish Cup competitions.

The objective of this report is to provide a data-driven forecast for Dundee United's final league standing in the 2025-26 Scottish Premiership. This analysis will meticulously examine their recent performance, significant changes within the squad, the logistical and physical challenges presented by multi-competition involvement, and the broader competitive dynamics of the Scottish Premiership. The immediate 4th place finish after promotion is a powerful indicator of effective club management and the inherent quality of the squad. This strong performance sets a considerably higher baseline for expectations than is typically associated with a newly promoted side. It suggests that the club's focus has shifted from merely ensuring survival in the top division to consolidating a consistent position within the upper half of the league table.

II. Review of the 2024-25 Season: A Foundation for Success
The 2024-25 season proved to be an undeniable triumph for Dundee United, culminating in an impressive 4th place finish in the Scottish Premiership. The team accrued 53 points over 38 matches, demonstrating a balanced record of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses. Their offensive output saw them score 45 goals, while conceding 54, resulting in a goal difference of -9.

This robust league performance was rewarded with a coveted spot in the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round for the 2025-26 season, marking their return to European competition. Domestically, the club also demonstrated competence in cup competitions, reaching the Scottish Cup Fourth Round and the League Cup Quarter-finals. Individual contributions were ***** to this success, with striker Sam Dalby emerging as the team's top goalscorer, netting 15 goals across all competitions. In goal, Jack Walton played a pivotal role, leading the Premiership in saves with a remarkable 112 stops throughout the season. Other significant contributors included Vicko Ševelj (2 goals), Ross Graham (4 goals), Kristijan Trapanovski (3 Premiership goals, 3 League Cup goals), Louis Moult (3 Premiership goals, 1 League Cup goal), Emmanuel Adegboyega (3 goals), and Luca Stephenson (3 goals).

The leadership of manager Jim Goodwin was instrumental in guiding the team to this impressive finish. His decision to sign a two-year deal to remain manager even after the club's relegation in 2023 underscored his commitment and foresight, and his tactical acumen was clearly evident in the team's rapid adaptation to the top flight.

A closer examination of their 2024-25 performance reveals a team capable of consistent output regardless of venue. Their home record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses (27 points) was closely mirrored by their away record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses (26 points). This near-identical points tally across home and away fixtures indicates a side that did not heavily rely on home advantage, a characteristic often seen in stable Premiership teams. The ability to perform consistently on the road is a sign of maturity and resilience. Furthermore, achieving a 4th place finish with a negative goal difference suggests that Dundee United often won close matches or experienced a few heavy defeats, rather than consistently dominating opponents. This points to a success built on resilience and the ability to grind out results, qualities that are valuable but can be challenging to maintain, especially when key personnel changes occur.

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III. Squad Evolution for 2025-26: Strengths, Gaps, and New Faces
Dundee United faces a considerable challenge in the 2025-26 season due to significant squad turnover. Several key players who contributed to their successful 2024-25 campaign have departed. Most notably, captain Ross Docherty has left the club, creating a void in both leadership and midfield presence. Goalkeeper Jack Walton, whose 112 saves topped the Premiership charts and were crucial to the team's defensive efforts, has returned to Luton Town following the expiration of his loan. Loan stars Luca Stephenson and Emmanuel Adegboyega, who each contributed 3 goals and valuable minutes, have also gone back to their parent clubs. Other experienced players departing include Declan Gallagher, Louis Moult, David Babunski, Allan Campbell, Lewis Fiorini, Ruari Paton, and Tony Watt. While not explicitly confirmed in the 2025-26 squad lists, Sam Dalby, the team's top scorer with 15 goals in 2024-25, is conspicuously absent from the listed players for the upcoming season, strongly suggesting his departure.

In response to these departures, the club has been active in the transfer market, bringing in new talent. Bert Esselink, a defender with European experience from Cyprus and Poland, has been confirmed as the fifth summer arrival. Manager Jim Goodwin has praised Esselink for his defensive capabilities and ability to play on the front foot, highlighting his mobility, bravery, and intelligence in progressive passing. The other four confirmed summer signings are Yevgeniy Kucherenko (goalkeeper), Iurie Iovu (defender), Panutche Camara (midfielder), and Zachary Sapsford (forward). These acquisitions are strategically aimed at bolstering key positions, including directly addressing the need for a new starting goalkeeper and adding depth across defense, midfield, and attack.

The simultaneous loss of the team's captain, top goalscorer, and starting goalkeeper presents a multifaceted challenge for Dundee United. The departure of Ross Docherty creates a leadership vacuum within the squad, which can impact team cohesion and on-field decision-making. The absence of Sam Dalby, the primary source of goals, directly affects the team's offensive output, which was already modest at 45 goals in 38 league games last season. Furthermore, losing Jack Walton, a goalkeeper who demonstrated exceptional shot-stopping ability, immediately places significant pressure on the new goalkeeper, Yevgeniy Kucherenko, and the overall defensive unit. Replacing these three critical pillars of the team's structure and performance simultaneously is a monumental task. While the new signings (Esselink, Kucherenko, Iovu, Camara, Sapsford) are intended to fill these roles, there is no guarantee they will immediately perform at the same level or integrate seamlessly into Jim Goodwin's system. This high turnover in crucial positions inherently increases the risk of a slower start to the season and potential inconsistencies in performance, which could directly influence their final league standing.

[moicher]

IV. Navigating Multiple Competitions: The European Factor
Dundee United's qualification for the UEFA Conference League marks a significant return to European competition, a testament to their strong 2024-25 Premiership finish. Their European campaign is set to begin early, with second qualifying round matches scheduled for July 24 and July 31, 2025, against UNA Strassen.

This early start to competitive football presents a unique challenge, as the Scottish Premiership season is slated to kick off just days after their second European fixture, on August 3, 2025, with an away match against Falkirk. This tight schedule means the team will be engaged in high-stakes competitive matches before their domestic league campaign even commences, placing immediate and significant demands on player fitness and overall squad depth. To prepare for this multi-front campaign, Dundee United has arranged a series of pre-season friendlies against Brechin City (June 28), Arbroath (July 5), PEC Zwolle (July 11), St Johnstone (July 15), and Oldham Athletic (July 19). These matches are designed to build match fitness and integrate new players ahead of the demanding schedule.

The impact of balancing European aspirations with domestic league performance is a well-documented challenge for Scottish clubs, particularly those outside the financial and squad strength of Celtic and Rangers. The added travel, increased intensity of European matches, and the heightened potential for injuries or player fatigue can significantly affect league form, especially during the crucial early stages of the season.

The confluence of an early start to the European campaign in late July and the substantial squad turnover experienced by Dundee United creates a high-risk scenario for their Premiership start. The pressure to perform well in the Conference League, both for prestige and financial reward, might inadvertently divert focus and resources that would otherwise be dedicated solely to domestic preparations. This diversion could lead to a slower accumulation of points in the Premiership, particularly if the team progresses further in the European competition. The new signings, such as Esselink, Kucherenko, Iovu, Camara, and Sapsford, will have limited time to fully integrate into the team's tactical system and build crucial on-field chemistry before facing competitive matches on two fronts. The physical and mental strain of European travel and high-stakes games can lead to fatigue, an increased risk of injuries, and a potential dip in domestic league performance. For a team undergoing such significant personnel changes, this added burden could make it considerably harder to hit the ground running in the Premiership, potentially costing them valuable early points and making it challenging to replicate their impressive 4th place finish from the previous season.

V. The Competitive Landscape: Rivals and League Dynamics
The Scottish Premiership, outside of the dominant Old Firm duo, is characterized by intense competition for European qualification and top-half finishes. Celtic, the reigning 2024-25 champions, and Rangers consistently occupy the top two positions, a reflection of their superior financial resources and squad depth. The battle for the remaining European spots and positions within the top six is typically fierce.

Dundee United's direct rivals for European places will include Hibernian, who finished 3rd in 2024-25, and Aberdeen, who finished 5th. Other clubs such as Heart of Midlothian (7th in 2024-25), St Mirren (6th), and Motherwell (8th) will also be strong contenders vying for top-half positions. Dundee, finishing 10th last season, will undoubtedly aim for an improved showing. The league also welcomes new faces, with Livingston retaining their top-flight status after winning the 2024-25 Premiership play-off, and Falkirk also appearing in the 2025-26 Premiership table, implying their promotion. Ross County and St Johnstone were relegated at the end of the 2024-25 campaign.

Transfer activity among these direct rivals indicates a highly competitive mid-table. Hibernian, for instance, has strengthened by signing Jamie McGrath from Aberdeen and goalkeeper Raphael Sallinger, while also expressing a strong desire to retain loan star Nectarios Triantis. Aberdeen has brought in new attacking talent in Kusini Yengi and Nicolas Milanovic, along with defensive reinforcements like Emmanuel Gyamfi and goalkeeper Nick Suman, though they lost Jamie McGrath to Hibernian. St Mirren has added defender Richard King and midfielder Roland Idowu to their ranks. Heart of Midlothian has confirmed additions such as Christian Borchgrevink and Alexandros Kyziridis, and made Elton Kabangu's loan permanent, though the future of their captain Lawrence Shankland remains undecided. Motherwell has also made moves, signing midfielder Elliot Watt and defender Jordan McGhee.

This active transfer market among Dundee United's direct competitors underscores that these clubs are not content with their previous standings and are actively investing to consolidate or improve their positions. For Dundee United, this means that their own squad changes must not only effectively replace the quality and leadership lost but also ensure they keep pace with the improvements made by their competitors. The ability to maintain their 4th place position will depend not only on how well their new players integrate but also on their relative performance against these strengthening rivals, making the upcoming season a true test of their capabilities within a dynamic league environment.

VI. Prediction for the 2025-26 Scottish Premiership Season
Based on a comprehensive analysis of Dundee United's recent performance, significant squad changes, the demands of European football, and the evolving competitive landscape of the Scottish Premiership, a prediction for their 2025-26 finishing position can be formulated. Leading bookmakers, such as Paddy Power, currently project Dundee United to finish in 6th place in the upcoming Scottish Premiership season. This represents a slight adjustment from their impressive 4th place finish in the 2024-25 campaign.

Several factors underpin this prediction:

Impact of Squad Turnover: The most significant influence on this forecast is the extensive overhaul of the Dundee United squad. The departures of pivotal players, including captain Ross Docherty, the team's top goalscorer Sam Dalby (inferred), and the highly influential goalkeeper Jack Walton, create substantial voids in leadership, goal-scoring prowess, and defensive solidity. While the club has proactively brought in five new players—Bert Esselink, Yevgeniy Kucherenko, Iurie Iovu, Panutche Camara, and Zachary Sapsford—the immediate impact and seamless integration of these new faces are inherently uncertain. It is a common observation in football that new players require time to adapt to a new league, team dynamics, and a manager's specific system. This adaptation period can lead to early-season inconsistencies and dropped points, making it challenging to replicate the immediate success of the previous season.

European Commitments: Participation in the UEFA Conference League introduces an additional layer of complexity and demand. The early commencement of their European campaign in late July, just prior to the Premiership season's start, will place immediate physical and mental strain on the squad. Managing fixture congestion, the fatigue associated with travel, and the increased potential for injuries will be a considerable challenge, particularly for a club with a relatively smaller squad depth compared to the perennial title contenders. This dual focus could lead to a slower start in the domestic league, as resources and energy are distributed across multiple competitions, potentially impacting their ability to accumulate points consistently in the early stages.

Competitive Mid-Table: The Scottish Premiership's mid-table is a highly contested arena. Teams such as Hibernian, Aberdeen, Hearts, St Mirren, and Motherwell are all actively strengthening their squads through strategic transfers. While Dundee United demonstrated their capability last season by securing a European spot, these rivals are also investing to improve and will be fiercely competing for top-half finishes. Maintaining a 4th place position requires consistently outperforming these improving teams, a task that becomes inherently more difficult with a transitioning squad.

Managerial Stability (Mitigating Factor): A crucial mitigating factor in Dundee United's favor is the continuity of manager Jim Goodwin. His proven ability to guide the team to a strong finish immediately after promotion suggests he possesses the tactical acumen and leadership necessary to navigate the challenges of squad integration and a demanding schedule. His continued presence provides stability and a clear footballing philosophy, which will be instrumental in helping new players adapt and in managing the rigors of a multi-competition season.

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Historical Context: Dundee United's recent history in the top flight exhibits a pattern of fluctuating performance. The club has experienced relegations in 2016 and 2023, interspersed with strong finishes, such as 4th place in 2021-22 and the recent 2024-25 season. This historical volatility suggests that while they are capable of achieving high positions, sustaining consistent top-four finishes has been difficult over extended periods. A slight regression to 6th place would align with this historical trend, indicating a solid top-half finish but acknowledging the inherent challenges of maintaining peak performance year-on-year.

The predicted drop to 6th place should not be interpreted as a sign of failure but rather as a realistic adjustment based on the inherent challenges of what is often termed "second season syndrome" for a newly re-established top-flight team. This phenomenon, combined with the significant squad overhaul and the added demands of European competition, makes a slight dip in league performance a very plausible outcome. A 6th place finish, while two positions lower than their previous season, would still represent a solid top-half position. It would confirm their status as a competitive Premiership side and demonstrate a consolidation of their top-flight presence, rather than a continued immediate upward trajectory. This outcome would signify a successful season in terms of establishing long-term stability in the Premiership.
VII. Conclusion: Final Outlook and Key Factors for Success
Based on the comprehensive analysis of Dundee United's impressive 2024-25 performance, the significant changes to their squad, the demands of European football, and the competitive landscape of the Scottish Premiership, the club is predicted to finish around 6th place in the 2025-26 season.

While replicating their outstanding 4th place finish from 2024-25 will be challenging due to the factors outlined, a 6th place finish would nonetheless represent a successful season for Dundee United. It would solidify their position as a competitive top-half Premiership side and provide a stable platform for future growth, demonstrating that their return to the top flight is a sustainable one.

Key factors that will determine Dundee United's ability to achieve this predicted outcome and potentially exceed it include:

Rapid Player Integration: The capacity of Jim Goodwin and his coaching staff to quickly integrate the five new summer signings—Esselink, Kucherenko, Iovu, Camara, and Sapsford—and foster strong team chemistry will be paramount. Effectively replacing the goal output, defensive solidity, and leadership provided by the departed key players will be critical to their early-season form and overall consistency.

Squad Depth Management: Successfully managing the squad's fitness levels and implementing effective rotation strategies will be ***** to cope with the increased demands of competing in the domestic league, Scottish Cup, League Cup, and UEFA Conference League fixtures. Avoiding player burnout and minimizing injuries will be crucial for maintaining performance throughout the season.

Consistency Against Mid-Table Rivals: Securing consistent points against teams outside of the Old Firm, particularly those directly vying for European qualification and top-half positions, will be a decisive factor in their final standing. The ability to win key matches against direct competitors will be essential for consolidating their position.

The overall outlook suggests that Dundee United is poised for a solid top-half finish, building on the foundations laid in their first season back in the Premiership. The challenges are considerable, but the presence of an established manager and strategic recruitment efforts indicate a club focused on sustained competitiveness.

[moicher]

full analysis (the site wouldn't paste tables properly so i took them out) is here

https://g.co/gemini/share/8dd9881e74e2

[shed-buoy]

full analysis (the site wouldn't paste tables properly so i took them out) is here

https://g.co/gemini/share/8dd9881e74e2

Interesting although just another punter, AI just as fallible as var and as reliable as any bar room discussion

Look at Hibs and Sheep last year, both finished the opposite of how they started and I suspect AI did not see that coming

Anything can happen and probably will

[TerryTheTerror]

In my experience, AI output really can't be trusted (as much as big companies would like us to believe otherwise).