As I reckon there’s now a 90% chance Notts will be in the National League next season, I’ve been thinking about how long it might take to get back into the EFL. The evidence of what has happened to other clubs isn’t very encouraging.

I took a starting point of season 2002/3, which was the first year in which 2 up 2 down was in force between what are now League 2 and the National League. Since then, 29 different clubs have been relegated from League 2, 3 of which, Torquay, York and Barnet, have gone down twice.

Of these, only 4 have gone straight back up again. These were Shrewsbury (2004), Carlisle (2005), Bristol Rovers (2015) and Cheltenham (2016). Not many out of 32 relegations. The next quickest returns were by Torquay (2 seasons in 2009), Barnet (2, 2015) and Tranmere (3, 2018).

Others took longer.... Oxford (4, 2010), Exeter (5, 2008), Mansfield (5, 2013), Luton (5, 2013), Grimsby (6, 2016), Lincoln (6, 2017), Macclesfield (6, 2018), York (8, 2012) and Cambridge (9, 2014).

And of course there are those that haven’t made it back up and perhaps never will.... Kidderminster (now National League North, 14 seasons since relegation), Rushden and Diamonds (SLP, 13), Boston (NLN, 12), Wrexham (NL, 11), Chester (NLN, 10), Darlington (NLN, 9), Stockport (NLN, 8), Hereford (NLN, 7), Aldershot (NL, 6), Torquay (NLS, 5), Dagenham (NL, 3), York (NLN, 3), Hartlepool (NL, 2), Leyton Orient ((NL, 2), Barnet (NL 1) and Chesterfield (NL, 1).

Some of these, such as Darlington and Rushden, aren’t strictly speaking the same club that was relegated, but they are all close equivalents.

So if we do go down, it could take a long time to get back up again. There are some relative minnows in the list like Kidderminster and Boston who massively over achieved by ever reaching League 2 in the first place and perhaps it isn’t surprising that they haven’t come back. But there are others, with roughly the same size and fan base as Notts, who took several years - Oxford, Grimsby, Luton and Tranmere for instance. And one, Stockport, which has been in the sixth tier for several years now. In fact it’s the first time I’ve ever been able to regard Bristol Rovers as a beacon of hope!

It could be a long hard road back.