O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

[sidders]

Politicians and politics are neither better nor worse than they were in this country in the last 50 years. What's different is social and press media. In the 1960's all kinds of political and personal intrigue occurred, but only a small percentage was made public. Then people didn't lay bare their souls like they do today and cameras weren't pointed up people's noses.
That said, what a s h i t choice we have. I am now unashamedly pro-EU and have three choices - Green (more honest but likely to be tiny and therefore ineffective), Lib Dem (Swinson!) & Labour (who are ya?)
The result? Bozo to get his 'mandate' quite comfortably. Why? Mainly because he smiles a lot and gives the impression of being cool and in control. If you want the truth about that one, type in Boris and Max Hastings (for many years his boss) and see why he's not to be trusted.
So how can I say Bozo will win? Because as a Notts fan I'm used to there being a gulf between what I want to happen and what I expect
to happen.
So a Bozo overall majority of 20 with the only note of comfort being the subsequent resignation of Corbyn and the delight of a Labour leadership contest - Thornberry, Abbott, Wrong-Daily, anyone? After all, Jezzer says it should be a woman!

[Elite_Pie]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.

Attachment 14256

Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

[countygump]

I'd be interested to hear the answer to that, because after a great deal of thought I can only think of one plus point for Boris Johnson.

He isn't Michael Gove.

He isn't Corbyn or McDonnell either which is even better.

[ncfcog]

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

Thanks Elite, I bookmarked this page earlier so glad I'm not alone in finding it useful.

[Old_pie]

In addition to the graphs I'd like to see some references to the "money tree" that's been found. Have both parties found the same tree or is one of a more fruitful species than the other? I try to keep up with Science and Technology but this one has passed me by, though I've have got a bit behind on fairy stories.

[ncfcog]

In addition to the graphs I'd like to see some references to the "money tree" that's been found. Have both parties found the same tree or is one of a more fruitful species than the other? I try to keep up with Science and Technology but this one has passed me by, though I've have got a bit behind on fairy stories.

It’s the same old magic money tree as before, you know, the one that leaves us common folk pulling rabbits out of hats that have seen better days.

[AltyPie]

It’s the same old magic money tree as before, you know, the one that leaves us common folk pulling rabbits out of hats that have seen better days.

It’s not just money trees. When it comes to elections, any party that’s not Labour these days needs to be worried about letter boxes and things resembling them.
When it comes to the “postal voting factories” Richard Mawrey warned of in 2015, Labour certainly do own the means of production.

[Lullapie]

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

Am I missing something?? To me that graph shows anything but a two-party political field, unless you are suggesting the Tories and Labour form a coalition. Any one of those top four parties could play a major part in the next government.

[Elite_Pie]

Am I missing something?? To me that graph shows anything but a two-party political field, unless you are suggesting the Tories and Labour form a coalition. Any one of those top four parties could play a major part in the next government.

I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.

[Lullapie]

I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.

Aha - thanks for clearing it up.
I think as with other odd times during the past few decades a new party hits the ground running midway between elections. There is a groundswell for something new, then at the last minute, the British public panic and vote for one of the 'old' parties. I find Johnson's and the Tories' tactics very odd with isolating The Brexit Party. It is a very high-risk strategy that could see them lose power if the centreright/right vote is split, rather than forming a pre-election alliance. In terms of history, minor parties that go into coalition or alliance and give their 'confidence and supply' to a major party, normally disappear off the political spectrum at the next election, so The Tories could kill two birds with one stone. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.