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Six numbers is hardly 'miring'. Scared of numbers as well as foreigners, BH?Originally Posted by TheBlackHorse
Ah, jealousy is such an ugly thing. Thatcher gutted UK industry, but let's blame the Germans.
Well, that's a policy adopted by just about every state in the world, including the UK. The rich are expected to contribute more in taxes than the poor. It's a logical enough principle. Do you really have a problem with that?
I remember in the run up to the referendum there was a lot of anti Eastern European feeling, talk of them "coming over here, stealing our jobs, scrounging benefits" sort of nonsense. Well, one way to reduce that sort of immigration is to strengthen the economies of the poorer regions of the EU to make economic migration less necessary.
Again, I ask how any of this negatively affects you?
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Ah, thanks for reminding me. But accepting a lift off a rich friend in their gas guzzler does not make you a reckless polluter in the grand scheme of things. That's on them.
BTW, did you think salmagundi needed your help? :-)
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... 7' ... so wide of the mark on each of your opinions you make me laugh, as usual. Enjoy your delusions ...
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Getting back on track …
Latest couple of polls would suggest the Tories position is strengthening and pollsters are changing their working methodology to account for the Brexit party not contesting certain Tory held constituencies. However the increase in voting intention for the Tories in these constituencies may be giving a false impression and wont necessarily translate into extra seats in the commons come Election Day.
Based on this it’s likely the Tories might need to be averaging circa 44-45% in the polls to guarantee they get the seats to ensure a majority. This is further endorsed by my last graph which shows a slight decline in predicted seat numbers for the Tories since the Brexit party’s withdrawals.
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I have data from the last 9 polls published between 15th and 20th November which account for a total sample of 13,146 people polled.
Conservatives have hit the dizzy heights of 45% of the polled votes in 3 of the 9 polls via YouGov, DeltaPoll and Kantar but received 37% on 15th Nov via BMG. This represents a Conservative average for this period of 38% and a 7% margin of error.
Labour peaked at 31% with ComRes on 20th November and their lowest polled vote percentage was 27% with Kantar on the 18th November so a 4% margin of error.
The predicted seats now shows the Conservatives with a 50 seat majority over labour, however that could be anything between 53 and 47 seats considering the margin of error calculations.
If you are still with me here are the graphs:
I will continue to collect data for the next 5-6 days to see if the manifesto announcements for each party make any difference.
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The LibDems are doing a lot worse than people predicted. Good, because that's 22 seats more than they deserve. I think they will get less than that anyway.I have data from the last 9 polls published between 15th and 20th November which account for a total sample of 13,146 people polled.
Conservatives have hit the dizzy heights of 45% of the polled votes in 3 of the 9 polls via YouGov, DeltaPoll and Kantar but received 37% on 15th Nov via BMG. This represents a Conservative average for this period of 38% and a 7% margin of error.
Labour peaked at 31% with ComRes on 20th November and their lowest polled vote percentage was 27% with Kantar on the 18th November so a 4% margin of error.
The predicted seats now shows the Conservatives with a 50 seat majority over labour, however that could be anything between 53 and 47 seats considering the margin of error calculations.
If you are still with me here are the graphs:
I will continue to collect data for the next 5-6 days to see if the manifesto announcements for each party make any difference.
The chart is interesting, because whilst Boris is way ahead of Labour, he's not that far ahead when it comes to a Commons majority. You really have to add the SNP seats in with Labour as they speak with one voice at times and are potential allies.
Incidentally, it amused me that Elite was revealing to people who hadn't taken much notice that he's slightly to the left of centre. On here, that makes you a Marxist. We seem to have the most right-wing fan base in the country with the possible exception of Stoke. Mind you, some of the worst Neaderthals are only here because their own club's board has died a death.
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That's a really powerful argument you have there, horsey. Never let it be said that you're a neigh-sayer.
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MY bet at the bookies was for an overall Tory majority of 20-plus but so poor has Bozo been with his bumbling, drooling down his tie performance that a well hung Parliament must again be clear favourite. He is a far better comedian than he is a PM.
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Now the SNP Labour thing is odd, the SNP will only be part of a Labour government if they're allowed to have an independence referendum. What happens if they win that and become independent??? They'll no long be part of the UK and the government. That'll make Labour a minority government and open to another election. I really can't see Labour agreeing to Indyref 2 during their for term so the Scots would have to wait 5 years.
Not that any of the above is going to happen
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A Tory majority is now clear favourite. I took 11/8 about a Tory majority about 3 weeks ago, so could now guarantee a profit by backing a hung parliament because I am convinced they are the only two possible outcomes on December 12th. While you are correct about how poor Boris has been in this campaign, it won't make any difference. He could molest the queen on the steps of Buckingham Palace and 40% of people would still give him their vote because he's "getting Brexit done", and nothing else matters.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...erall-majority
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