O/T Lotto

[Masbroughstreet]

Just if lucky dips are computer generated actual draw could be. Not saying it is.

So you spend more a month than some people spend on their mortgage to play a competition that you think might be fixed?

[gru]

So you spend more a month than some people spend on their mortgage to play a competition that you think might be fixed?

All same fixed or not it's a safe bet if/when your in the money.

[Heliosphan]

Just if lucky dips are computer generated actual draw could be. Not saying it is.

How did you think lucky dips were generated?

Just to put your mind at rest, if circa 20 million tickets are sold and (for argument sake, half are lucky dip sales) that's 10 million computer generated tickets. Are you suggesting the draw is rigged to the extent that 10 million tickets are placed at a disadvantage?

Don't worry yourself about computer generated tickets. They might be pseudo-random but to the average punter buying a few lines, the practicality is that you're getting 6 random numbers. That's it.

[Heliosphan]

Some 'systems' will increase your chances if you are a subscriber to conventional probability theory, but the increases are absolutely miniscule.

Can you outline the basic premise of a system that will increase my chances of winning, however miniscule?

[UlleyMiller]

Can you outline the basic premise of a system that will increase my chances of winning, however miniscule?

By applying the underpinning themes in probability theory led by the Bernoulli school of thought. For example, it would be more likely to have a broadly even split of odds and evens, the average value of the six numbers would equate to an EV (30 I think).

Utterly useless in the face of the numbers involved, but tiny, tiny gains IF you subscribe to Bernoulli's laws.

[Heliosphan]

By applying the underpinning themes in probability theory led by the Bernoulli school of thought. For example, it would be more likely to have a broadly even split of odds and evens, the average value of the six numbers would equate to an EV (30 I think).

Utterly useless in the face of the numbers involved, but tiny, tiny gains IF you subscribe to Bernoulli's laws.

It's not something I'm remotely familiar with. But given your example, no merit in it whatsoever, certainly from a Lotto perspective.

[UlleyMiller]

It's not something I'm remotely familiar with. But given your example, no merit in it whatsoever, certainly from a Lotto perspective.

Again, not without merit, the maths works. It just points at the fact the gains you can expect by deploying any sort of system are not going to impact the outcomes in a way 99.9999% of players would be interested in.

If you have three balls, 1 to 3, you'd assume an odd number is more likely than even in a fair draw. The numbers are 1 to 59, so your first pick should be odd. Once you've done that, it's an even split so pick any number. For the third pick you go with whichever has the highest remaining (odd or even), and so on. That's the principles of Bernoulli's probability work that are the basis for most of what gets taught in schools. I've quickly checked a download of the last 6 months of draws, and 39% give a 3 odd, 3 even outcome (4 and 2 split either way is 37%, 20% for 5 and 1, and only 4% for only odd or only even), so at a cursory glance that would steer me in that direction, or at least to avoid heavily weighted against odd or even.

Other considerations would be the likely outcome (using the 1 to 3 example, you'd assume the average of the picks over time would be 2, so apply that logic to the 1 to 59 range), to maximise your winnings by avoiding commonly played numbers (there may be sources online, but limiting things like birthdays would seem logical).

Chiefly though, discount the law of averages logic, because it's utterly flawed, and quietly works on the basis that the lottery will only ever play through all the possible combinations once before shutting down - and that's wrong on a few fronts. Probability will help you a little, but only in the same way that a thimble of water will help you put out a bonfire.

[Heliosphan]

If you have three balls, 1 to 3, you'd assume an odd number is more likely than even in a fair draw. The numbers are 1 to 59, so your first pick should be odd. Once you've done that, it's an even split so pick any number. For the third pick you go with whichever has the highest remaining (odd or even), and so on. That's the principles of Bernoulli's probability work that are the basis for most of what gets taught in schools.

I've quickly checked a download of the last 6 months of draws, and 39% give a 3 odd, 3 even outcome (4 and 2 split either way is 37%, 20% for 5 and 1, and only 4% for only odd or only even), so at a cursory glance that would steer me in that direction, or at least to avoid heavily weighted against odd or even

So essentially what you're saying is hypothetical bollix and irrelevant, certainly in this context. We both know that, so I know there's no offence taken on your part.

Putting that agreement aside, how do we apply the logic if we take away "labels" and focus entirely on the fact that we simply have 59 spherical objects swazzing around in a globe? Perhaps we could paint each ball a different colour or name them all individually after our pets. That would really confuse (simplify?) things.

You can slice it however you like, odds, evens, red, black, male or female and then present some probability figures (like you have) with the end result being the grand sum of **** all.

This sum being the merit and practical value to anyone playing Lotto.

Other considerations would be the likely outcome (using the 1 to 3 example, you'd assume the average of the picks over time would be 2, so apply that logic to the 1 to 59 range), to maximise your winnings by avoiding commonly played numbers (there may be sources online, but limiting things like birthdays would seem logical).

Is that really a consideration? If Lotto consisted of just numbers 1-3, I wouldn't be drawn into selecting the number 2 on the basis that it’s the closest average outcome of a dozen draws. Neither would I select the number 30 and, being an intelligent man, neither would you. This is GCSE mathematics, i.e the mode, median and mean. Simple problems that kids are tasked with.

Chiefly though, discount the law of averages logic, because it's utterly flawed, and quietly works on the basis that the lottery will only ever play through all the possible combinations once before shutting down - and that's wrong on a few fronts. Probability will help you a little, but only in the same way that a thimble of water will help you put out a bonfire.

Absolutely.

To dumb it down, one could select numbers that come out quite often in the hope that they come out again. Conversely, one could select numbers that don't come out quite as often in the anticipation that they start to come out.

Or just buy more tickets 😁

[gru]

Got 8 free lucky dips last night not a sniff to go with hundreds I've had before. Can't be totally random how they are selected. Anyway onto Wednesday jackpot got to won Got to change one number that was drawn out last night made that decision checking most overdue numbers but haven't in 50's gone for one that was looked at bonus balls drawn out also that made my mind up which to go for. No free lucky dips for next draw that's a blessing! Will have extra line's on seeing it's got to be won.

[Heliosphan]

Got 8 free lucky dips last night not a sniff to go with hundreds I've had before. Can't be totally random how they are selected. Anyway onto Wednesday jackpot got to won Got to change one number that was drawn out last night made that decision checking most overdue numbers but haven't in 50's gone for one that was looked at bonus balls drawn out also that made my mind up which to go for. No free lucky dips for next draw that's a blessing! Will have extra line's on seeing it's got to be won.

Good luck with that baby brain! 👍