OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[AdiSalisbury]

Please don't, I can't face hearing any more of his facts.

I don't claim to be a finance expert so happy to be shot down, and there will undoubtedly be a period of adjustment, but the trends stand out for me, and I can't see them being reversed in our favour.

[ramAnag]

Adi...you said, in your first reply, that the conditions I spoke of had ‘been the case for the last twenty years’. I disputed that and clearly, from your own figures, you are wrong.
I believe that Sterling is currently at 1.14 against the Euro, that is to say spectacularly weaker than pre June 2016 and the second weakest it’s been in the eigh**** year history you provide.
As regards inflation rates, your 2017 figure is 2% higher than in Referendum year and 2.7% higher than the year before that. Throughout the pre banking crisis years, which were in ‘the last twenty years’, it was also regularly much lower than it currently is.
I lay absolute no claim to being a financial expert either - ask Ramjet - but I can’t see how your figures support your claim about the last twenty years, although Messrs Blair and Brown, particularly the former, might welcome them.

[roger_ramjet]

Much as it grieves e to say it, rA would appear more correct - sterling has weakened against the Euro by a tad under 20% since June 2016 (including market expectation weakening in the lead up to the vote), and, although it also weakened against its 2001 value as well by June 2016, the rate of fall was nowhere near as drastic. Had we voted remain I suspect the market would have bumped sterling up a bit to maybe 1.35. But the Euro itself is in no great shape following the mediteranean member weakness and financial collapse (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy...). It too had fallen against the USD and other major currencies in the period. So which is in a worse condition: I suppose that the market has favored the euro over sterling gives us a clue but what the future holds remains to be seen

As for inflation, clearly a lot of that is imported inflation down to the exchange rate weakening - ie the cost of imported goods has risen in sterling terms but not in forex terms. This would make our inflation rate higher in the UK than that in the stronger currency nations such as those in the Euro. Since we make virtually nothing, our inflation levels are not likely to be due to internal price rises, except perhaps in financial services where we are still strong. Wage driven UK inflation has been limited over the past several years, thankfully, but perhaps this is due to imported labour not having UK workforce demands (and expectations) for increases since much of their income is repatriated to lower cost of living areas.

Question is, is a little inflation a bad thing? I would suggest not: low interest rates and low inflation point to an under-stimulated economy. For us to make Brexit a success we need to stimulate our economy which means inflation is a likely inevitability: so this needs controlling. Zero or low inflation rates are not necessarily a good thing, except to those on fixed incomes such as pensioners.

But, looking on the bright side, the inflated ego of one former member seems to have been punctureddd.

[ramAnag]

Much as it grieves e to say it, rA would appear more correct - sterling has weakened against the Euro by a tad under 20% since June 2016 (including market expectation weakening in the lead up to the vote), and, although it also weakened against its 2001 value as well by June 2016, the rate of fall was nowhere near as drastic. Had we voted remain I suspect the market would have bumped sterling up a bit to maybe 1.35. But the Euro itself is in no great shape following the mediteranean member weakness and financial collapse (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy...). It too had fallen against the USD and other major currencies in the period. So which is in a worse condition: I suppose that the market has favored the euro over sterling gives us a clue but what the future holds remains to be seen

As for inflation, clearly a lot of that is imported inflation down to the exchange rate weakening - ie the cost of imported goods has risen in sterling terms but not in forex terms. This would make our inflation rate higher in the UK than that in the stronger currency nations such as those in the Euro. Since we make virtually nothing, our inflation levels are not likely to be due to internal price rises, except perhaps in financial services where we are still strong. Wage driven UK inflation has been limited over the past several years, thankfully, but perhaps this is due to imported labour not having UK workforce demands (and expectations) for increases since much of their income is repatriated to lower cost of living areas.

Question is, is a little inflation a bad thing? I would suggest not: low interest rates and low inflation point to an under-stimulated economy. For us to make Brexit a success we need to stimulate our economy which means inflation is a likely inevitability: so this needs controlling. Zero or low inflation rates are not necessarily a good thing, except to those on fixed incomes such as pensioners.

But, looking on the bright side, the inflated ego of one former member seems to have been punctureddd.

Yes!!!!!!! Get in!!!!! Been waiting two and a half years for RR to admit I’m right (well ‘more correct’ at least)...and in a debate about figures too!

Andy...you think those figures are ‘powerful’? Swale would have destroyed them.

[roger_ramjet]

Two and a half years and right about figures? By my reckoning this debate only started 1 1/2 years ago, so back to being wrong with numbers you go!!

[Andy_Faber]

Andy...you think those figures are ‘powerful’? Swale would have destroyed them.

I disagree with the spin RR has put on the numbers, with the exchange rate I think he's gone a bit 'hedge fund manager by numbers' on ya, I focus more on historical fact and the fall into the 2008/9 abyss, at which point I didn't hear you screaming 'its because we're in the EU!'
Inflation at all times is like riding a monocycle, made worse recently with the Canadian working the pedals
As for Swale, I doubt it, he doesn't understand the subtle difference between a healthy discussion and a rant

[roger_ramjet]

I disagree with the spin RR has put on the numbers, with the exchange rate I think he's gone a bit 'hedge fund manager by numbers' on ya, I focus more on historical fact and the fall into the 2008/9 abyss, at which point I didn't hear you screaming 'its because we're in the EU!'
Inflation at all times is like riding a monocycle, made worse recently with the Canadian working the pedals
As for Swale, I doubt it, he doesn't understand the subtle difference between a healthy discussion and a rant

It remains your right to be wrong on the exchange rate matter Andy!! But as for your Swale theory, I wholeheartedly endorse your interpretation.

[Andy_Faber]

It remains your right to be wrong on the exchange rate matter Andy!! But as for your Swale theory, I wholeheartedly endorse your interpretation.

So long as we concur on the important stuff. Nice to have you back from the DDD Wars

[roger_ramjet]

So long as we concur on the important stuff. Nice to have you back from the DDD Wars

It looks to be a successful campaign, with a surprise ending!

[AdiSalisbury]

I shall humbly accept RR's professional opinion and concede you that point RA. I'll stick to counting 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 and rtf