Big Day in Parliament

[1959_60]

It's looking more and more like a long extension and we partake in the Euro elections. I'm warming to this idea, me and Nigel both are rubbing our hands. They'll be glad to see the back of us before this is all over.

The Brexit party and the Lib Dems should do very well if we had to partake in the Euro elections I reckon.

Why would any hard Brexiteer or Remainer vote Tory or Labour?

But i think it would be a different story in a General Election. I just can't see Nigel making a breakthrough in Parliament.

[sinkov]

The Brexit party and the Lib Dems should do very well if we had to partake in the Euro elections I reckon.

Why would any hard Brexiteer or Remainer vote Tory or Labour?

But i think it would be a different story in a General Election. I just can't see Nigel making a breakthrough in Parliament.

UKIP won the last Euro Elections in 2014 59, with 4.3 million votes, Farage's Brexit Party is hardly going to do worse this time, the only competition for Brexiteer votes will be Tommy Robinson's UKIP, and I think Nigel can comfortably cope with him. if we do partake in the Euros, and Farage gets his Party up, running and organised in time, it could be a landslide for him. We'll see.


A GE will inevitably split on Remain/Leave lines, the old party loyalties are being ripped up and destroyed at this very moment. Farage got just short of 3.9 million votes at the 2015 election, (I'm not trying to rub it in, just pointing out, the LibDems got 2.4 million) under our system that's not enough to translate into sitting MPs, but next time he will have a virtually free run at 17.4 million Leave voters. How many he will need to be a force in Parliament I don't know, but just who are those 17.4 million going to vote for if not Farage ?

On the other hand the 17 million Remainers, or 18 million if you want to claim people are changing their minds, will have a choice, the Tories, who are conniving with Labour in an attempt to thwart Brexit, Labour, who don't seem to know what they really want, except it's certainly not Brexit, the LibDems, the Greens, the SNP, and the Changers. 17 million with one choice, 18 million with six choices.

You remember when May blew the election, she was told she no longer had the numbers in Parliament, and so it proved, she has been stopped dead in her tracks, because the numbers count, they are what matters. So no matter what me or you think 59, look at the numbers, I know which side I'll be betting on.

[1959_60]

I hear what you are saying and agree with most of it.

I don't think we will have a General Election before sorting our deal with the EU out. Although who knows?
In that case the GE will be about ordinary stuff like the NHS, the economy, education etc etc. and i really don't see Nigel making much progress running as a single issue party (the Brexit party) when that issue has been resolved.

The euro elections are different. If we take part then, by definition, Brexit still hasn't been sorted out and he should do very well.

The pro europe voters will have a chance to vote for, basically, the Lib Dems or the Change lot. Both should do well and I think they should get their heads together before fielding candidates against each other.

On the other hand, what do I or anyone else know about what will happen next?

[The Bedlington Terrier]

Here in Bolton the local blue rinsed Tory activists are now refusing to canvas and leaflet drop for the May elections and the local Tory Party is contentedly devouring itself from within. Happy Days!

Meanwhile Corbyn's "do bugger all until the brown stuff really hits the fan" strategy has worked really well. The General Election will be fought between the Labour Party and UKIP. Farage or Corbyn? Now there's a choice to get the juices flowing!

[sinkov]

You seem to be under the impression 59 that the implications of the WA only last for the so-called Implementation Period of around two years, after that you claim we're out, we're free, free as a bird to make any trade deals we want, free of the ECJ etc. I know you don't believe me when I say that's not the case, so here's Martin Howe QC pointing just one of the little difficulties we'll be facing.

"The Attorney General Geoffrey Cox QC seems to have become something of an advocate for staying in a customs union with the EU, as a possible route for leaving the EU. In an interview with Laura Kuenssberg on 3 April 2019, Geoffrey Cox claimed that if, “in some considerable years time”, we wanted to leave that customs union then “there's nothing to stop us removing ourselves from that arrangement, so we can't look at these things as permanent straitjackets upon this country.”

This is a very important claim, and it needs to be looked at very carefully before it can be accepted. A normal customs union treaty, like all trade treaties, would contain a notice clause - so we could leave a normal customs union agreement if we wanted to. But the problem is and remains the Withdrawal Agreement and its backstop Protocol which, as Geoffrey Cox rightly acknowledges, allows the EU to lock us in indefinitely. If the Prime Minister’s proposal were to strip the backstop Protocol out of the WA and replace it with a customs union agreement with a notice clause, then what Geoffrey Cox says would be true.

However, it seems that that is not what the Prime Minister is proposing. She apparently wants to keep the legally binding WA and backstop Protocol, and add a commitment by the UK to enter into a long term customs union agreement on top of that.

And why, in those circumstances, would the EU agree to include a normal notice clause in the customs union agreement? That would provide to the UK an escape route from the Irish backstop which would be blindingly obvious to the EU. So instead of a normal notice clause, they will insist on a clause which reinstates the backstop Protocol if the UK drops out of the Customs Union agreement. The EU will argue that this is necessary to protect the peace process, etc, etc, etc, if the UK ever decides to leave the Customs Union.

There does not seem any legal way of preventing the EU from insisting on this, and our negotiating position will be incredibly weak, given that if we do not agree to the terms they insist on for the future relationship agreement then we will drop automatically into the backstop Protocol and stay there indefinitely. From the EU’s perspective, it is hard to see why they would ever give up the backstop Protocol if we are foolish enough to agree to it becoming binding. It will act as a permanent dog-leash with which the EU can restrain the UK’s international trade policy and competitiveness, sitting behind any trade agreement we do with the EU.

This illustrates the fact that the real poison in the deal which Theresa May has negotiated with the EU is the legally binding WA and its backstop Protocol with no unilateral exit clause. For inexplicable reasons, she seems determined to persist in inflicting this unprecedented treaty on the United Kingdom, regardless of the form of the future relationship with the EU.
If the Attorney General wishes to persist in making claims that “there’s nothing to stop us removing ourselves from” a customs union, then he needs to explain exactly how we can escape from the backstop trap."


Come into my parlour, said the spider to the fly.

[sinkov]

Here in Bolton the local blue rinsed Tory activists are now refusing to canvas and leaflet drop for the May elections and the local Tory Party is contentedly devouring itself from within. Happy Days!

Meanwhile Corbyn's "do bugger all until the brown stuff really hits the fan" strategy has worked really well. The General Election will be fought between the Labour Party and UKIP. Farage or Corbyn? Now there's a choice to get the juices flowing!

I think we can forget our Brexit BT, but at least you have the consolation of watching the Tories destroying themselves, and I must admit I'm quite enjoying the spectacle myself, I never expected to see owt like it to be honest, not in a million years. I love the juxtaposition of this process now being run by a Remain PM pretending to be Leaver, and a Leader of the Opposition, a Leaver pretending he wants us to Remain. Dil and Do now in charge of GB PLC. God help us.

[sinkov]

I hear what you are saying and agree with most of it.

I don't think we will have a General Election before sorting our deal with the EU out. Although who knows?
In that case the GE will be about ordinary stuff like the NHS, the economy, education etc etc. and i really don't see Nigel making much progress running as a single issue party (the Brexit party) when that issue has been resolved.

The euro elections are different. If we take part then, by definition, Brexit still hasn't been sorted out and he should do very well.

The pro europe voters will have a chance to vote for, basically, the Lib Dems or the Change lot. Both should do well and I think they should get their heads together before fielding candidates against each other.

On the other hand, what do I or anyone else know about what will happen next?

Bloody hell 59, you really think this Brexit pantomime will have been sorted and put to bed by the time of the next General Election ? I admire your optimism, but there's far more chance of Burnley winning the PL than this being resolved any time soon. This will run and run, it's going to be a festering sore for years.

[outwoodclaret]

Labour is now a firmly Remain party. Their manifesto pledges to honour the result of the June 2016 referendum were not worth the paper they were printed on.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

Labour is now a firmly Remain party. Their manifesto pledges to honour the result of the June 2016 referendum were not worth the paper they were printed on.

I live in a constituency (BOLTON NORTH EAST) which voted to LEAVE by a very decent majority. Our sitting Labour MP actually canvassed to REMAIN. Guess which way this duplicitous hypocrite voted on all of the indicative votes?

He has not got a prayer of winning this seat in the imminent General Election.

[sinkov]

Here you are BT, you want to do something about Brexit, the Labour Party are looking for MEPs, five vacancies in the North West. Get in there man.

https://labourlist.org/2019/04/where...mep-vacancies/