OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[AngryRam]

Iain Dale is an intelligent man and a competent broadcaster, MA.
He is also an arch advocate of Brexit and a failed wannabe right of centre politician...I wouldn’t put a lot of trust in his or LBC’s level of objectivity where this particular issue is concerned.

Could that not be a relevant to everyone in this mess. Media, politicians, me, you ? Level of objectivity I mean.

[AngryRam]

Wow...an almost conciliatory post from the Angry one. Are you on Prozac or have you been hacked?

Nice to see anyway. Have to take issue with your ‘leave is really the only option now’.

Why is that?

The overwhelming mood of Parliament - before it was silenced/suspended/prorogued/censored - and possibly the country as a whole is one of opposition to a ‘No Deal’ Brexit.

For the reasons you have explained, a General Election is not the answer.
All major Parties, the Lib Dems and the SNP apart, are split to some extent or the other, on the pros and cons of Brexit.

All an Election is likely to achieve is another hung Parliament with minor groups like the DUP and possibly the Brexit Party holding a disproportionate amount of power.

With all that in mind, surely a second - better informed - Referendum is the only democratic solution though interestingly

Hacked off sitting in Milan..
Without wishing to turn into a politician by answering a question with a question.. But what do you think would happen to politics in this country if now they overturn the referendum?
IMO party politics will cease, a huge number will never vote again unless it is made mandatory and then they could just spoil their ballot papers.. Civil unrest? Maybe... Huge long lasting divisions in families. How would the country ever be effectively governed in the future?
I still don’t get a second referendum sorting anything.. We are not better advised because the whole 3 years have been a remain sham and the deal is a remain deal. As Tricky says, the deal could have been very different if a leader had been negotiating.. We will never know now. People are tired of it now, we were told it would be binding, Labour and everyone else supported Article 50. No ambiguity there, we will leave... They should get it done now, the current situation is helping nobody.

[Trickytreesreds]

Hacked off sitting in Milan..
Without wishing to turn into a politician by answering a question with a question.. But what do you think would happen to politics in this country if now they overturn the referendum?
IMO party politics will cease, a huge number will never vote again unless it is made mandatory and then they could just spoil their ballot papers.. Civil unrest? Maybe... Huge long lasting divisions in families. How would the country ever be effectively governed in the future?
I still don’t get a second referendum sorting anything.. We are not better advised because the whole 3 years have been a remain sham and the deal is a remain deal. As Tricky says, the deal could have been very different if a leader had been negotiating.. We will never know now. People are tired of it now, we were told it would be binding, Labour and everyone else supported Article 50. No ambiguity there, we will leave... They should get it done now, the current situation is helping nobody.

Just watched a very interesting idea on LBC (I know RA HATES IT).
It sorts this once and for all and torpedoes all the legal hijacking, barriers and sabateurs doing their best to cause chaos.

1. Revoke article 50. This stops the need to seek an extension, even if it's legally asked for.
2. Call the general election. No body swerving now. You have to have one.
3. Every party put s its cards on the table as to what it would do. This is as good a second referendum.

4. If Boris/Farage wins- asctivate article 50 immediately. You can leave as fast as you want in under 2 years. The next day if you wish.
5. If any of the Corbyns/Sturgeon/Swinson win, then remain it will be in effect.

No if's no buts. Stop moaning and get on with it.
For me, get ready for a Tory/Brexit party landslide.
Parliament has bought this on itself.

[ramAnag]

Hacked off sitting in Milan..
Without wishing to turn into a politician by answering a question with a question.. But what do you think would happen to politics in this country if now they overturn the referendum?
IMO party politics will cease, a huge number will never vote again unless it is made mandatory and then they could just spoil their ballot papers.. Civil unrest? Maybe... Huge long lasting divisions in families. How would the country ever be effectively governed in the future?
I still don’t get a second referendum sorting anything.. We are not better advised because the whole 3 years have been a remain sham and the deal is a remain deal. As Tricky says, the deal could have been very different if a leader had been negotiating.. We will never know now. People are tired of it now, we were told it would be binding, Labour and everyone else supported Article 50. No ambiguity there, we will leave... They should get it done now, the current situation is helping nobody.

Sorry you’re stuck in Milan. Is that BA to blame or has your van broken down? Have another cappuccino.

More seriously...you seem to be suggesting that we have to stick with the slender 2016 ‘decision’ because otherwise it will lead to the end of ‘party politics’ and there may be civil unrest...caused one has to suggest by disgruntled Brexiteers.

Can’t really see the sense of that.

The divisions are likely to remain anyway...the genie is out of the bottle...but let’s face it, the reason most Brexiteers don’t want a second referendum, as MoP recently and very honestly conceded, is that they think they’ll lose.

Why is that?

Because in the three plus years since June 2016 the public are better informed, the Remainers are no longer lulled into a false sense of security and complacency, the lies and untruths that people based their original decisions on have been exposed, the myth that Brexit (especially no deal) is the ‘will of the people’ is increasingly recognised as a sham and the fact that Brexit is actually damaging to the well being of this country is being acknowledged.

P.S. In case you don’t know...Scottish Courts have this morning ruled Johnson’s actions in relation to suspending Parliament as illegal. I’m thinking of becoming McramAnag!

[Geoff Parkstone]

We have reached the crossroads where the final twists will play themselves out. No more extentions, they could extend until the year 2525 and not find an answer.

Whichever road we take will lead to the "civil unrest" you speak of Angry. There is no clear solution, not even a cloudy one and even the muddy ones aren't much use.

An election won't solve it as its not a party political thing. A second referendum will only be undecided and result in calls for a third one.

The choice is clear: no deal Brexit, piss off a lot of people and face short term economic problems that may or may not be resolvable and may, long term, represent a better position.

Revoke article 50, piss of a lot of people and face short term issues around face saving and the EU getting its own back by weakening our special deals in place before 2016.

So either way is destined for disastrous consequences internally, divisiveness being polarised and carnage at the subsequent election as the prospect of a hung parliament looms large for many years to come as the leave and remain camps seek to gain political traction of their own at the cost of the split Labour and tory parties. That this is self inclicted across Parliament is ironic since Cameron wanted to reunite the Tories but has ended up splitting both major parties.

Anyway, enough of that - faced with a choice of no deal or revoke, I will get off the fence and say revoke. There will be civil unrest come what may, but as a person in the twilight of my working life I would prefer the short term stability remaining has to offer. Someone else can fight the longer term problems of the USE when they become more obvious to more people.

[ramAnag]

We have reached the crossroads where the final twists will play themselves out. No more extentions, they could extend until the year 2525 and not find an answer.

Whichever road we take will lead to the "civil unrest" you speak of Angry. There is no clear solution, not even a cloudy one and even the muddy ones aren't much use.

An election won't solve it as its not a party political thing. A second referendum will only be undecided and result in calls for a third one.

The choice is clear: no deal Brexit, piss off a lot of people and face short term economic problems that may or may not be resolvable and may, long term, represent a better position.

Revoke article 50, piss of a lot of people and face short term issues around face saving and the EU getting its own back by weakening our special deals in place before 2016.

So either way is destined for disastrous consequences internally, divisiveness being polarised and carnage at the subsequent election as the prospect of a hung parliament looms large for many years to come as the leave and remain camps seek to gain political traction of their own at the cost of the split Labour and tory parties. That this is self inclicted across Parliament is ironic since Cameron wanted to reunite the Tories but has ended up splitting both major parties.

Anyway, enough of that - faced with a choice of no deal or revoke, I will get off the fence and say revoke. There will be civil unrest come what may, but as a person in the twilight of my working life I would prefer the short term stability remaining has to offer. Someone else can fight the longer term problems of the USE when they become more obvious to more people.

At last! Sure you’ll be able to sit more comfortably now, GP. Old Roger Ramjet would be proud.

You’re right...whatever happens some will be pissed off, though I suspect the ‘civil unrest’ we all fear will be the territory of the likes of the more militant - and I have to say ‘stupid’ - Brexiteers such as those who support the likes of Tommy Robinson and the ‘Democratic
Football Lads Alliance’.

The fact that the beleaguered Johnson and Rees-Mogg have attempted to shamelessly ingratiate themselves with those particular areas of support should, imo, be a source of never ending shame.

Wonder how long now before Gove ‘jumps ship’ again?

[AngryRam]

Sorry you’re stuck in Milan. Is that BA to blame or has your van broken down? Have another cappuccino.

More seriously...you seem to be suggesting that we have to stick with the slender 2016 ‘decision’ because otherwise it will lead to the end of ‘party politics’ and there may be civil unrest...caused one has to suggest by disgruntled Brexiteers.

Can’t really see the sense of that.

The divisions are likely to remain anyway...the genie is out of the bottle...but let’s face it, the reason most Brexiteers don’t want a second referendum, as MoP recently and very honestly conceded, is that they think they’ll lose.

Why is that?

Because in the three plus years since June 2016 the public are better informed, the Remainers are no longer lulled into a false sense of security and complacency, the lies and untruths that people based their original decisions on have been exposed, the myth that Brexit (especially no deal) is the ‘will of the people’ is increasingly recognised as a sham and the fact that Brexit is actually damaging to the well being of this country is being acknowledged.

P.S. In case you don’t know...Scottish Courts have this morning ruled Johnson’s actions in relation to suspending Parliament as illegal. I’m thinking of becoming McramAnag!

Fashion week in London next week. Me and my van are coining it in. Crap hotel at an airport that is closed but great food. Nothing better than Italian nose bag. BA did muck me up and had to use AZ... Horrible airline.

Yes I am suggesting we have to stick with 'the slender 2016 decision'. Exactly that, don't want to go over old ground but that was what was agreed by ALL parties. Deliver it or is' chaos.

As Geoff says, civil unrest is probably nailed on now either way. Tricky is going to have a problem with that as most remainers are tree huggers and he's a tree hugger of a different sort.

MoP made the comment about not wanting to lose a second referendum and now that's 'most'. Hmmm. There is a school of thought that the margin would be bigger. Who knows.

You still didnt answer my question though? How do you see UK politics going forward if we stay?

[ramAnag]

Sorry...you’re right I didn’t.

I think, depending on what happens, that far from an end to ‘party politics’ it is just likely to become more polarised.

Many are suggesting that the time of ‘centrist politics’ is dead but I’m not so sure. I feel that the politics represented by the centre left of the Labour Party, the decent ‘one nation’ Tories, the Lib Dems and the Greens...supported on many issues by the Scots and the Welsh...have enough in common to be able to become a new and genuine long term force in British politics.

Equally I think - and hope - that Johnson and his cronies recent actions have done much to destroy the credibility of the Tory Party and will, before long, signal the end of either the political careers of those associated with the ERG or the Conservative Party itself. As for the Brexit Party...it is, imo, a single issue party which operates for the benefit of a few rich men and the narcissistic empty vessel called Farage. They’re desperate for an election of course, none more than Farage himself, but if the issue of Brexit is settled without one they are finished.

Hope you get home okay.

[Geoff Parkstone]

"You still didnt answer my question though? How do you see UK politics going forward if we stay?"

My view is mostly encapsulated in the post a couple back, but here's my dystopian vision of the future. I would say that, unless we get a centrist alliance created by a massively hung parliament, we had better get used to going to vote rather more frequently than every 5 years. This will happen if we remain or (less likely if we leave, as there are disgruntled elements in both of the major parties.

So out of 650 seats I would expect to see (if we remain)

Speaker 1
Scotch Malcontents 42
Welsh Malcontents 6
Irish Loyalists 10
Irish Malcontents 7
Green 15
Brexit 150 (ie leavers)
Labour 110 (squeezed as took no stance)
Tory 130 (split as root cause of problem)
LibDem (inc change) 175 (ie remainers)
Independents 4

If we leave then there wont be so many remain/leaver extremes, but we could have a centrist party ("party of national recovery") with perhaps 200-250 MP's opposed by polarised left and right wings in Tory and Labour hardcore areas. Brexiteers may return to their core homes on either the right or left, and remainers, renamed rejoiners, will coalesce around a green/LibDem alliance (and keep demanding another referendum on rejoining).

The Scotch self interest group will be after a further referendum on independence and want to rejoin the EU as a free standing quasi eastern european type of country, using the "Scrote" as its currency. It will pitch its tent wherever it can negotiate a 4th, 5th, 6th independence vote until everyone is sufficiently bored with it and will finally say "go". The Irish will start fighting each other again, and the Welsh, as usual, will lack relevance apart from in the Commons rugby team.

The House of Lords, suddenly thinking it might be relevant again, will sit and wait for planned legislation to be referred to it, and will not receive anything to vote on because the commons wont be able to agree on any. With no EU mandated legislation coming forth it will disband, recognising its own redundancy about 150 years too late.

[AngryRam]

Sorry...you’re right I didn’t.

I think, depending on what happens, that far from an end to ‘party politics’ it is just likely to become more polarised.

Many are suggesting that the time of ‘centrist politics’ is dead but I’m not so sure. I feel that the politics represented by the centre left of the Labour Party, the decent ‘one nation’ Tories, the Lib Dems and the Greens...supported on many issues by the Scots and the Welsh...have enough in common to be able to become a new and genuine long term force in British politics.

Equally I think - and hope - that Johnson and his cronies recent actions have done much to destroy the credibility of the Tory Party and will, before long, signal the end of either the political careers of those associated with the ERG or the Conservative Party itself. As for the Brexit Party...it is, imo, a single issue party which operates for the benefit of a few rich men and the narcissistic empty vessel called Farage. They’re desperate for an election of course, none more than Farage himself, but if the issue of Brexit is settled without one they are finished.

Hope you get home okay.

Okay fair points.. I think centralist politics will be a thing of the past for a long time. I have never had a 'home' in politics, I have voted Conservative, Liberal and Labour.. Honestly I could not vote for any of them now. Maybe a new party will develop from the ashes?
Your comments about the Tories and the ERG could equally be aimed at Corbyn and the mess he looks after.

I have no time for any of the so called party leaders.

Politics will become a social media battle ground, much like we have today. Everyone's an expert and there is so much misinformation out there now. The big social media platforms know everything about you and tailor you reading input to match your views. Dangerous ground IMO.

We as a society need to find a way to manage social media, it's polarising everyone. I don't do Facebook, rarely go on Twitter but do like some forums.

Home on Saturday afternoon... Will have to watch Cardiff on the iPad.