OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

So you keep telling us, it really is an unattractive trait Swale

Thats because you don't get irony! Plus I was always getting grief for being a Remainer because it was in my interests!

But as is the case of those with a limited IQ, they don't get it! Personally I'd rather we remained in the EU for the sake of future generations, but and heres the rub, the so called "metropolitan liberal elite" who Brexiteers are fond of slagging off because they don't understand why people wanted Brexit, won't be the ones most affected by Brexit, if its a hard one or IF (still in doubt) it happens, because they have the means to avoid the effects of deregulation, they won't be impacted by cheap food flooding in due to lower standards, they won't be impacted by less employment rights, lower wages or the inevitable cuts to essential services, it will be the poorer standard bearers for Brexit who will ultimately pay the price!

Me I'm waiting to see what actually happens then deciding where to go and live, but the way things are shaping up, there is more than likely another few years of the gravy train yet, shame I'm getting paid to deprive this country of jobs, economic activity and tax income but hey don't blame me I didn;t vote for this mess!

[Manofpride]

hey don't blame me I didn;t vote for this mess!

What mess? Told you Boris was doing a great job. He's sure got the remainers worked up.

[MadAmster]

Deal? DUP don't like it and won't back it. LibDems and Labour both say it's even worse (I don't know enough detail to judge that yet) than the May deal that has already been voted down 3 times. SNP, obviously, won't back it as they represent most of the Scottish people, 62% of whom voted remain. There are 21 Tory rebels who may or may not vote with BoJo on this. Also 7 Sinn Feinn MPs who will, as always, be abstaining (NI also voted remain so they would serve their constituents better by turning up on Saturday to vote against the deal..... but they won't).

Let's have a look at the figures that make up what BoJo is facing among the 650 MPs.

Conservative 288
Labour 245
Independent 35
SNP 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
IGC 5 (Independent Group for Change)
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1
Speaker 1

Of those the 7 SF MPs won't vote and the Speaker can't so that's 642 MPs available to vote. BoJo needs (provided they all vote) 322 votes to guarantee getting his deal through. Where will those votes come from?

288 Tory MPs for a start but no guarantee all of them will vote OUT. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt.
21 Tory rebels? Some will, some won't. Let's be kind and have them all go with BoJo
Labour? Will some MPs surrender to the threat of it being this deal or no deal? Yes, but possibly about as many as there will be Tories who vote against BoJo.
That's about it, I think. 209 votes for the deal. 13 more required and I don't think he's going to get them.

That will mean, under the terms of the Benn Act, BoJo will have to apply for an extension to Article 50. I believe he will do just that. I think it is very likely that the EU has now gone as far as it is prepared to, amongst other reasons, to ensure that no other country decides to leave. At least one will vote against a further extension IMO as the EU won't give any more ground and that's it, the UK is out without a deal and BoJo can blame the EU. It is then down to the members of the WTO to decide if the UK may trade under the terms of the GATT deal. It takes just one to say no and then what?

Patriam non grata?

It aint over till it's over and this aint over by a long chalk. By Leave, the UK will have to start trade negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world's countries.......



The other (vague) possibility is that Parliament says yes to BoJo's deal. There then follows a 2 year status quo wherein the details of the UK/EU trade deal will be thrashed out. Once that deal is agreed and accepted by both the EU and the Commons/Lords, the terms of that deal replace the current terms.

[MadAmster]

.... and now that nice Mr Farage has said he'd rather have a delay than accept this deal.......... and je leads the Brexit Party

[swaledale]

What mess? Told you Boris was doing a great job. He's sure got the remainers worked up.

Well if having a lying, cheating, devious, philandering, incompetent posh privileged elite fantasist as Prime Minister doesn't get you worked up then one has a strange view of having some pride in the UK!

As a evidence of the fact that one cannot believe a word he says, here is his direct quote less than 12 months ago


If we wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs … if we wanted to vary our regulation then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU and we would be damaging the fabric of the union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern – on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the withdrawal agreement.

Now I have to tell you, no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement.

Now he is putting forward a deal that is 95% of what May had negotiated, but reverts to a different regime for Northern island which in the quote above he said he wouldn't do!

[ramAnag]

What mess? Told you Boris was doing a great job. He's sure got the remainers worked up.

‘What mess?’ Well the total waste of time and money that has led to this country being more divided that I can ever remember for starters.

That ‘nice Mr. Farage’ - aka Mosley Mk2 - is only interested in a delay for one reason imo, MA.
A delay will lead to an election which is just about his only chance of retaining a job...he’ll lose his position as a Euro MP if we leave and there will be no Brexit Party to provide him with a possible route into Parliament - at the eighth attempt - if Brexit is completed.

Every cloud...

[swaledale]

‘What mess?’ Well the total waste of time and money that has led to this country being more divided that I can ever remember for starters.

That ‘nice Mr. Farage’ - aka Mosley Mk2 - is only interested in a delay for one reason imo, MA.
A delay will lead to an election which is just about his only chance of retaining a job...he’ll lose his position as a Euro MP if we leave and there will be no Brexit Party to provide him with a possible route into Parliament - at the eighth attempt - if Brexit is completed.

Every cloud...

People should never forget this is an intention and not a final deal. There'll have to be negotiations on all fronts about all aspects before there's anything like a final deal to be signed. If Johnson and his crew are given a free hand to do this it's bad news for those who have to work and try and make ends meet in the UK because they certainly won't be interested in them once they've duped them into granting them a majority for 5 years. Why - if they claim they can do it now - have they constantly under-funded and eroded everything from police, NHS, education, social services and councils for 9 years? Anyone who believes they'll now put their money where their mouths are is seriously deluded. This is a right wing take over which will wreck the UK for many of its citizens until people come to their senses and get rid of them. Those struggling and poverty stricken won't be helped but many will be reduced to joining them.

What there should be now is a confirmatory referendum, with Leave with this deal or remain on the ballot paper, that way true democratic principles will have been met. Rather than allow a tiny majority of those who voted to run roughshod over the rest. How can the will of 30% of the population be described as "the will of the people"?

[MadAmster]

That ‘nice Mr. Farage’ - aka Mosley Mk2 - is only interested in a delay for one reason imo, MA.
A delay will lead to an election which is just about his only chance of retaining a job...he’ll lose his position as a Euro MP if we leave and there will be no Brexit Party to provide him with a possible route into Parliament - at the eighth attempt - if Brexit is completed.

Every cloud...

I think if BoJo gets defeated on Saturday on ths deal then the oppo will, finally, launch a vote of no confidence in him. That will carry and there will be a General Election with the following mainstream choices....... provided they get an absolute majority....

Tory - backing BoJo's deal and leaving under those terms asap following the GE

Labour - wading through the various noises they will either 1) Try to negotiate a better deal which the EU won't, IMO, allow, and put a referendum question to the people of..... leave under their deal or remain 2) The EU refuses to budge further so the referendum question is Bojos deal or remain OR......... that's it I think as they won't, IMO, put a referendum question tht has No Deal as an option.

LibDem (as if they will get an absolute majority.....) They will simply revoke Article 50.

Just in case any of the above need to form a coalition.....
Wales voted Leave by 52.5% to 47.5%. There are claims that the vote swung that way due to huge numbers of English born people who now live in Wales voting to leave so Plaid Cymru aren't likely to back any Leave campaign
Scotland voted 62% to 38% to Remain. I think a GE would see an SNP landslide and they won't back any Leave vote.
Northern Ireland voted 55.8% to 44.2% to Remain and most will vote Remain or, in the case of SF, abstain.

This whole sorry saga is far from over I fear........

[swaledale]

I think if BoJo gets defeated on Saturday on ths deal then the oppo will, finally, launch a vote of no confidence in him. That will carry and there will be a General Election with the following mainstream choices....... provided they get an absolute majority....

Tory - backing BoJo's deal and leaving under those terms asap following the GE

Labour - wading through the various noises they will either 1) Try to negotiate a better deal which the EU won't, IMO, allow, and put a referendum question to the people of..... leave under their deal or remain 2) The EU refuses to budge further so the referendum question is Bojos deal or remain OR......... that's it I think as they won't, IMO, put a referendum question tht has No Deal as an option.

LibDem (as if they will get an absolute majority.....) They will simply revoke Article 50.

Just in case any of the above need to form a coalition.....
Wales voted Leave by 52.5% to 47.5%. There are claims that the vote swung that way due to huge numbers of English born people who now live in Wales voting to leave so Plaid Cymru aren't likely to back any Leave campaign
Scotland voted 62% to 38% to Remain. I think a GE would see an SNP landslide and they won't back any Leave vote.
Northern Ireland voted 55.8% to 44.2% to Remain and most will vote Remain or, in the case of SF, abstain.

This whole sorry saga is far from over I fear........

The one deal that the Eu would allow is basically a Norway model option, which is most likely what Labour would go for given that they want access to the single market, frictionless trade, of course such a sift Brexit wouldn't satisfy the zealots but (see below) there is a reason why the some want a hard Brexit!

[swaledale]

Seven years ago, a group of Tory MPs published a book entitled Britannia Unchained that argued that Britain “rewards laziness”, that British workers were “the worst idlers in the world”, and that “too many people in Britain prefer a lie-in to hard work”. Businesses were deterred from hiring people, they claimed, because of employment laws that made them fear “taking a risk and hiring new staff”. The solution? Repealing those laws – or what should more accurately be described as rights. Three of the book’s authors are now in the cabinet: Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Liz Truss.