OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[MadAmster]

Take your point, but even JRM and the ERG have conceded that any economic benefit from leaving the EU is not likely to materialise for 35-40 years.
Funny how they never said that in 2016 when the Brexit negotiations were, according to Fox and IDS, going to be so ‘straightforward and easy’.

Have Brexit negotiations even started? All we have is a skeleton on which the tendons, ligaments, nerves, muscle and fat will eventually get hung. All that "flesh" comes in the form of treaties on Trade, Defence, cooperation on policing, intelligence sharing etc etc etc etc. Those talks, and IMO they are the important ones, have yet to start. The less the EU Commission like the skeleton, the less mild they will be on the important stuff.

May et al have IMO purposely prevaricated to bring us right where they want us and that is a position which will please neither the Leavers or te Remainers.

[swaledale]

Such is the world we live in, low credibility and self serving, poor show.

Disagree with the last part though, another referendum would see a massive leave majority. Its good guessing, if only there was some way we could gauge public opinion on which way a vote would go.

Interesting idea, but based on what? Look at the figures and the majority who voted for leave were the over 60's tory voters, it wasn't as is often claimed the poor working class. Furthermore lots of younger people who were eligible didn't vote, they woke up to how they were being shafted rather late, I doubt that would happen in another referendum.

Given that there was a very narrow majority last time, it is very unlikely that there would be a massive increase in the leave vote, but, and recent polls have shown this, there has been a shift away from remain in those areas where there were significant majorities for leave.

I don't really think Andy that you can base anything on social media even if it is tens of thousands, by its very nature what you get are people who are at the extremes, 100s of thousands dont express their views on social media, they know its a waste of time - Looking at all the research that has been done since the referendum a second vote would be in the 58 - 60% in favour of remain but even if it wasn't a second leave win would at least legitimize the whole sad sorry affair.

After all if Turkeys vote for Christmas twice, then one can only let them have it.

[ramAnag]

Interesting idea, but based on what? Look at the figures and the majority who voted for leave were the over 60's tory voters, it wasn't as is often claimed the poor working class. Furthermore lots of younger people who were eligible didn't vote, they woke up to how they were being shafted rather late, I doubt that would happen in another referendum.

Given that there was a very narrow majority last time, it is very unlikely that there would be a massive increase in the leave vote, but, and recent polls have shown this, there has been a shift away from remain in those areas where there were significant majorities for leave.

I don't really think Andy that you can base anything on social media even if it is tens of thousands, by its very nature what you get are people who are at the extremes, 100s of thousands dont express their views on social media, they know its a waste of time - Looking at all the research that has been done since the referendum a second vote would be in the 58 - 60% in favour of remain but even if it wasn't a second leave win would at least legitimize the whole sad sorry affair.

After all if Turkeys vote for Christmas twice, then one can only let them have it.

Agree with that Swale. Maybe the day will arrive soon when the government will be able to pay some attention to something other than Brexit...like our underfunded schools, NHS and police force. Funny how the further to the ‘right’ our government moves the greater such problems always seem to become.

As for social media...I don’t really participate, but while I’m sure Facebook etc can do some good and that football and music forums are generally benign and harmless, there does seem to be an increasing aspect of what used to be called ‘poison pen’ writing and bullying by those outspoken extremists who thrive on such cowardly anonymity.

[AdiSalisbury]

Interesting idea, but based on what? Look at the figures and the majority who voted for leave were the over 60's tory voters, it wasn't as is often claimed the poor working class. Furthermore lots of younger people who were eligible didn't vote, they woke up to how they were being shafted rather late, I doubt that would happen in another referendum.

A polite response, thank you. One day I'll buy you a nice expensive southern pint!

My comment was tongue in cheek - the only evidence we have of gauging public opinion, is the vote that took place. I accept that there is a proportion of the population that were too young to vote last time might swing a future vote, largely due to the widespread remain propaganda propagated by mainstream media and social media channels.

I don't accept (appreciate you are not suggesting this) that anyone will have significantly changed their mind, this thread itself would be reasonable evidence of this. There is a likelihood of leave voters not casting their vote a 2nd time around. The 1st vote should have set wheels in motion, however there seems to have been a tirade of action against it, which will make many feel that it is pointless.

I also don't accept that those who were able but didn't vote, would all turn out in support of remain. I'd expect, that their vote would largely resemble those who already did vote, again as the only reliable evidence we have of an outcome, is the one we already have.

Ultimately, predicting how a future vote would go, is only going to be a guess, I'm pretty certain Cameron wasn't expecting a Leave vote, so even those with the best analytics cannot predict what may or not happen.

The fact that we even have to have this debate, shows what a falsity our democracy is, and god knows what May is doing, as it doesn't reflect what anyone voted for.

[mistaram]

[QUOTE=AdiSalisbury;39166514]A polite response, thank you. One day I'll buy you a nice expensive southern pint!

My comment was tongue in cheek - the only evidence we have of gauging public opinion, is the vote that took place. I accept that there is a proportion of the population that were too young to vote last time might swing a future vote, largely due to the widespread remain propaganda propagated by mainstream media and social media channels.

I don't accept (appreciate you are not suggesting this) that anyone will have significantly changed their mind, this thread itself would be reasonable evidence of this. There is a likelihood of leave voters not casting their vote a 2nd time around. The 1st vote should have set wheels in motion, however there seems to have been a tirade of action against it, which will make many feel that it is pointless.

I also don't accept that those who were able but didn't vote, would all turn out in support of remain. I'd expect, that their vote would largely resemble those who already did vote, again as the only reliable evidence we have of an outcome, is the one we already have.

Ultimately, predicting how a future vote would go, is only going to be a guess, I'm pretty certain Cameron wasn't expecting a Leave vote, so even those with the best analytics cannot predict what may or not happen.

The fact that we even have to have this debate, shows what a falsity our democracy is, and god knows what May is doing, as it doesn't reflect what anyone voted for.[/QU

Adi got to agree with you it's all guess work how any future vote would go I always thought the vote was secret But they keep telling us how different classes and age voted Theve managed to get the young blaming the old for the result But anybody takes to look at the figures will see that in May2016 there were 11.25million over 65s in the UK assuming 100% voted leave it's long way short of 17million Don't think there will be another vote but it's pretty irrelevant because they are only advisory ( or so we keep being told )

[swaledale]

[QUOTE=mistaram;39166627]

A polite response, thank you. One day I'll buy you a nice expensive southern pint!

My comment was tongue in cheek - the only evidence we have of gauging public opinion, is the vote that took place. I accept that there is a proportion of the population that were too young to vote last time might swing a future vote, largely due to the widespread remain propaganda propagated by mainstream media and social media channels.

I don't accept (appreciate you are not suggesting this) that anyone will have significantly changed their mind, this thread itself would be reasonable evidence of this. There is a likelihood of leave voters not casting their vote a 2nd time around. The 1st vote should have set wheels in motion, however there seems to have been a tirade of action against it, which will make many feel that it is pointless.

I also don't accept that those who were able but didn't vote, would all turn out in support of remain. I'd expect, that their vote would largely resemble those who already did vote, again as the only reliable evidence we have of an outcome, is the one we already have.

Ultimately, predicting how a future vote would go, is only going to be a guess, I'm pretty certain Cameron wasn't expecting a Leave vote, so even those with the best analytics cannot predict what may or not happen.

The fact that we even have to have this debate, shows what a falsity our democracy is, and god knows what May is doing, as it doesn't reflect what anyone voted for.[/QU

Adi got to agree with you it's all guess work how any future vote would go I always thought the vote was secret But they keep telling us how different classes and age voted Theve managed to get the young blaming the old for the result But anybody takes to look at the figures will see that in May2016 there were 11.25million over 65s in the UK assuming 100% voted leave it's long way short of 17million Don't think there will be another vote but it's pretty irrelevant because they are only advisory ( or so we keep being told )

Referendums can be legally binding, one just has to make them so in law, Cameron for some reason didn't do that for the last one - binding referendums also tend to have a threshold for them to be legally binding, so if the last one had been it would not have conclusive and would not have counted.

The vote is secret, obviously there are polls and research about peoples views and I have to say I find most of those in the older age bracket tell me they voted leave and the opposite for younger people - none of those who voted leave have been able to articulate why - other than "I thought £350 million would be better spent on the NHS", I wanted to control immigration they are, taking jobs from our youngsters/increasing crime or other such myths.

What people don't understand is that the real story of Brexit is of a cadre of moneyed wreckers cynically manipulating a mess of resentments that their own politics triggered back in the 1980s, cheating their way to victory, and then attempting to bring their revolution full circle by treating millions of people like so much cannon fodder.

Whats been blatantly obvious is that the interests of the Tory party, or at least those who are eurosceptic and establishment are more important than the national interest. The Labour party is no better, seeking political capital when they should be looking to protect the "average person" from the aims of those who seek via Brexit to destroy the country.

Ah well we shall see in the coming weeks and months.

[Geoff Parkstone]

To combine you last two comments here and elsethread, Swale, then maybe because Samima Begum couldn't vote in the last referendum, it should be deemed invalid. 😉

[swaledale]

To combine you last two comments here and elsethread, Swale, then maybe because Samima Begum couldn't vote in the last referendum, it should be deemed invalid. ��

I'll take that as tongue in cheek!

The facts regarding the illegal funding, the complete lies and lack of information as to what leaving the EU would mean are self evident as is the fact that the referendum was not binding, faced with that one would expect the MP's in a representative democracy, which is what the UK is would put the interests of the country ahead of personal and political interests.

[MadAmster]

I'll take that as tongue in cheek!

The facts regarding the illegal funding, the complete lies and lack of information as to what leaving the EU would mean are self evident as is the fact that the referendum was not binding, faced with that one would expect the MP's in a representative democracy, which is what the UK is would put the interests of the country ahead of personal and political interests.

One would indeed Swale. The problem is that most of them don't, which is the point you make.

The big question now is, where to next?

As I see it, yesterday morning there were, IMO, 4 possibilities, namely, May's crappy deal, No deal, Extending Article 50 and No Brexit.

May's crappy deal was decimated for a 2nd time yesterday and the EU seems to have no appetite to tweak it further and absolutely no intention of major changes to it so I would surmise any deal is out of the question.

Most MPs seem to be against No Deal under WTO rules and I am convinced that will be voted down today.

Extending Article 50. MPs might vote to do that, however, if they do so, all May can do is ASK the EU for an extension. All 27 member countries would have to agree for a start and they are saying that there is no more ground to give. May would also have to go back with significant plans in order to get EU agreement on any extension. She doesn't have those plans and won't, IMO, be able to put such together in the next 16 days so I feel that an extension is not a credible option.

That leaves No Brexit. I have consistently said, ever since the referendum that I would believe Brexit when I saw it. Is No Brexit now the most likely option? I think it is, based purely on the fact that the other 3 options are already down and out or very close to the knockout punch which leaves #4.

I fully accept I may be wrong and there is a 5th or even more options. If anyone has more options, please feel free to add them in for discussion.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I think that's a fair assessment MA. We and EU still seem so far apart that a 12 month extension isn't likely to do much other than delay the current problem by a further 12 months.

I suppose we could give Ulster to Ireland and make the backstop irrelevant, but that's not going to happen, is it.

Faced with remain or no deal, then I'd say "remain" but reflect upon the colossal waste of time and money. Other more committed brexiteers may not be so reflective. On the other hand there may be rejoicing in the extreme in parts of rural Derbyshire.

BUT if we do remain, the problem won't just go away, the schism between EU and UK created by the brexit project will ultimately lead to revolt here and maybe a future no deal exit as more of the United States of Europe plans come into play.

That said the shifting age demographic may ultimately reduce current negative opinion towards USE.