OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Honestly, you genuinely won't be able to do your job in 4 months time? I doubt that very much. And anyone directly impacted, eg bidding staff, simply plan for any eventuality at present, and when the leave button is pressed, they'll adjust according to the market they sell in. Politicians will bicker til the cows come home, everyone else will get on with their respected trade

Not sure I understand that response, Adi. Where have I suggested that people ‘genuinely won’t be able to do their job in 4 months time’?
I haven’t...I am simply suggesting that trading is going to become ‘infinitely more difficult than before’ and seeing as we are a trading nation which imports more than it exports, then the much weaker £ and the reduction in our current easy access to the huge European market is going to pose huge and, imo, completely avoidable problems.

[Andy_Faber]

Not sure I understand that response, Adi. Where have I suggested that people ‘genuinely won’t be able to do their job in 4 months time’?
I haven’t...I am simply suggesting that trading is going to become ‘infinitely more difficult than before’ and seeing as we are a trading nation which imports more than it exports, then the much weaker £ and the reduction in our current easy access to the huge European market is going to pose huge and, imo, completely avoidable problems.

...but you don't really have any more DEFINITE idea than Mark Carney do you?

I think Adi and I are coming from the same angle, business (REAL business that has to get on with stuff and exist in the commercial world) will have a good idea of what's to come. I modelled it for my former company in 2017, the main impacts being intra-EU skilled recruitment and VAT on services from EU, and being the saddo I was at the time I'm aware that many of my fellow bean-counting saddos were quietly doing the same.

[AdiSalisbury]

...but you don't really have any more DEFINITE idea than Mark Carney do you?

I think Adi and I are coming from the same angle, business (REAL business that has to get on with stuff and exist in the commercial world) will have a good idea of what's to come. I modelled it for my former company in 2017, the main impacts being intra-EU skilled recruitment and VAT on services from EU, and being the saddo I was at the time I'm aware that many of my fellow bean-counting saddos were quietly doing the same.

Yes, exactly.

[ramAnag]

...but you don't really have any more DEFINITE idea than Mark Carney do you?

I think Adi and I are coming from the same angle, business (REAL business that has to get on with stuff and exist in the commercial world) will have a good idea of what's to come. I modelled it for my former company in 2017, the main impacts being intra-EU skilled recruitment and VAT on services from EU, and being the saddo I was at the time I'm aware that many of my fellow bean-counting saddos were quietly doing the same.

I ‘don’t really have any more definite idea than Mark Carney...?’
Wow...thanks for that Andy...actually I don’t think I’ve got a clue compared to Mark Carney and frankly it would be a worry if my understanding of the country’s economic future was in any way comparable to the Governor of the BoE...but thanks for the compliment.
It’s as simple as this Andy...Adi has his view, I have mine...we don’t fall out, but neither do we see remotely eye to eye over Brexit.
I listen to business and economic experts and have no time for nationalism. My conclusion is that, imo, this country is going to be worse off economically, morally and in terms of security if we follow the Brexit route.
If nothing else I’ve been consistent...as has Adi...but I really have no idea what you really believe anymore. We’ve been over your contradictions before but this week you’ve surpassed yourself, conceding that the majority of Joe Public are uninformed and ‘couldn’t give a toss’ and veering from your initial - and occasionally repeated - ‘Remain’ stance to writing in favour of a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
So what do you want...and please don’t come up with the old chestnut, ‘we just need to get on with it and jfdi’ because that is just a cop out in circumstances of this magnitude.

Bottom line...can you, or Adi, now please explain exactly how we are all going to be better off after any form of Brexit than we were before the Referendum? I’d genuinely love to know.

P.S....nothing nebulous please...and then can we talk about Monday’s match?

[swaledale]

You're still missing my point, I'm talking about people both sides of the yes/no argument. There's still a MASSIVE disconnect between the issues droned on about in the press and TV and people's ACTUAL lives

I suggested about 1,000 posts ago that if UK leaves EU with no deal it should STILL leave the Irish border open, and dare Ireland/EU to do the same. As a way of smoothing things in this area I think UK could treat those on EITHER side of the border being disadvantaged in any way on a 'goodwill' basis, supporting them with some of the money saved by not 'sending' £167m a week to Brussels, and for that matter some of the DUP bribe.
Edit: Or increase Swale's tax rate

I py quite enough tax thanks, not that I begrudge paying it - though I am pissed off about the amount wasted on brexit!

The whole problem with Brexit and the flawed concept of the referendum is that these issues are complicated and to say that the Uk could simply leave the Irish border as it is and dare (?) the EU/Republic to do the same is quite frankly a demonstration of a) lack of knowledge and understanding and b) contradictory in that I thought one of the Leavers great desires was to CONTROL OUR BORDERS?

[mistaram]

RA better go on a football site if you want to hear about the match You won't hear it on a political site like this

[mistaram]

Swales you are right about Irish border and the government knew from day one it has to be a priority but they kept kicking into the long grass If someone hadn't leaked the Attorney general's report to the Sunday Mail we wouldn't even be discussing it now

[ramAnag]

I py quite enough tax thanks, not that I begrudge paying it - though I am pissed off about the amount wasted on brexit!

The whole problem with Brexit and the flawed concept of the referendum is that these issues are complicated and to say that the Uk could simply leave the Irish border as it is and dare (?) the EU/Republic to do the same is quite frankly a demonstration of a) lack of knowledge and understanding and b) contradictory in that I thought one of the Leavers great desires was to CONTROL OUR BORDERS?

Ah...but you’re forgetting Swale...Andy isn’t a ‘Leaver’...well I don’t think he is, although he might be, depends what day, week, or possibly hour it is. He seems to be a kind of hybrid Remainer/no deal Brexiter who supports Mrs. May.
Hope he’s made his mind up which team to support on Monday.

[AdiSalisbury]

I had to Google, "Nebulous" Although, most mission statements are nebulous, people get paid far too much and spend far too much time to come up with a sentence to go under their logo, anyway... please forgive the brevity, my dinner's just going in the oven:

I'll play the game fair and put forward the negatives since the referendum...

Its raised a bitter side of people, that I never knew existed before. I've always known their are some horrible extreme right wing people who disgust me in many ways, but I was ignorant of how bitter and twisted the left wing could be. The only difference seems to be that it's legal to spread left wing hatred and vitriol.

In a world of supposed information, people are still blinded by propaganda, except rather than being adverts or newspapers, its taken many new forms. Most arguing over the matter, seems to be the same old soundbites being thrown either way, too many myths and I'm bored of it.

Satire is dead- it used to be light hearted jokes about politicians and leading figures, now its just anger filled rage, the louder they (TV personalities / comedians) shout and the redder the faces become, the more they get booked.

You might have to pay an additional £6.30 when you next spend a grand on your EU destined holiday.

How will we be better off? It's hard to not be nebulous because to quantify "better off" is subjective. I'm better off now because I'm in a better paid job than I was 12 months ago, leaving the EU hasn't impacted that. But here is what I voted for, I'm not an expert on predicting the future, I'm just Joe Public, but having a little life experience and some formal education in economics, I'd like to think that I'm not just some idiot who's scared of foreigners or takes much notice of what's written on a bus (unless I'm catching it of course!). I do feel a mountain has been made of a molehill, not helped by supposed neutral media outlets (sorry to pick up on an Andy point, but the BBC have let us down this last couple of years), but that's life...

Trade:

The EU operates on a similar basis to a "preferred suppliers list", it restricts free trade in measures that are often non-tariff based. There are advantages to this of course, depending where you are placed in particular services and your accessibility to import / export affordably and predictably. However, its also a constraint on your ability to exploit certain markets that would put you in direct competition with a particular EU state, meaning reduced opportunity to profit, reduced quality, reduced comparative advantage, and all the other advantages that come with competition. Leaving the EU doesn't remove access to the EU market (they rely on our trade to survive and are hardly going to refuse custom or opportunity into our market despite the spiteful propaganda spouted by EU politicians), it just removes the restriction, and I have faith in the skill of UK business to be able to exploit the new opportunities for our gain.

Politically:

It drives accountability of our own politicians home. If "we" vote in a government, regardless of my personal vote, I want them fully accountable for our policies, not hiding behind an EU decision, or only having a small say in EU policy which we are bound by. Nebulous maybe, but I expect them to work for us rather than blaming Brussells.

Immigration:

I don't think it's insensible to put restrictions of who walks, flies or sails into your country, and to not have it dictated to you by other EU states. There will always be an element that can't be controlled, any system can be defeated, by why invite it? Why have people travelling here to complete unskilled (I don't intend any disrespect as all work command respect) jobs, to send their pay "home" to another country, taking it out of our economy... or simply to come here and scrounge of our benefits system? There are other issues at home we need to deal with of course, but it doesn't mean that this should be ignored. "Dey tuk are jubs" or "nobody else would do the jobs" doesn't wash with me, certain UK people should be forced to complete undesirable work or simply lose their benefits... another argument of course.

I need to cut it here as my chips smell burnt, and I'm going to have to pretend I'm not hungry. But I will quickly state that I'm not anti-EU, I don't demonise it, our membership has been a positive for us historically, certainly in terms of our employment protections to the point where we are now far more attractive as employers than the rest of the EU. However, I think the tide has changed, the principles it was set out to achieve were achieved, and now it's become something else heading in the wrong direction. There's enough unrest in other EU states, and I expect that a few are wanting to see how our exit pans out before they take the same journey.

PS. I don't really care about the NI / Irish border, I live in the South of England and I am more interested in a decent diversion around Stonehenge so i can get to cricket quicker, the politicians can sort out a system / arrangement for our close neighbours.

Perhaps you'd return the courtesy and state, without being nebulous (I'm enjoying this addition to my vocabulary!), why you feel we are better to remain in the EU? We'll disagree of course, but I fully respect your position.

[ramAnag]

I had to Google, "Nebulous" Although, most mission statements are nebulous, people get paid far too much and spend far too much time to come up with a sentence to go under their logo, anyway... please forgive the brevity, my dinner's just going in the oven:

I'll play the game fair and put forward the negatives since the referendum...

Its raised a bitter side of people, that I never knew existed before. I've always known their are some horrible extreme right wing people who disgust me in many ways, but I was ignorant of how bitter and twisted the left wing could be. The only difference seems to be that it's legal to spread left wing hatred and vitriol.

In a world of supposed information, people are still blinded by propaganda, except rather than being adverts or newspapers, its taken many new forms. Most arguing over the matter, seems to be the same old soundbites being thrown either way, too many myths and I'm bored of it.

Satire is dead- it used to be light hearted jokes about politicians and leading figures, now its just anger filled rage, the louder they (TV personalities / comedians) shout and the redder the faces become, the more they get booked.

You might have to pay an additional £6.30 when you next spend a grand on your EU destined holiday.

How will we be better off? It's hard to not be nebulous because to quantify "better off" is subjective. I'm better off now because I'm in a better paid job than I was 12 months ago, leaving the EU hasn't impacted that. But here is what I voted for, I'm not an expert on predicting the future, I'm just Joe Public, but having a little life experience and some formal education in economics, I'd like to think that I'm not just some idiot who's scared of foreigners or takes much notice of what's written on a bus (unless I'm catching it of course!). I do feel a mountain has been made of a molehill, not helped by supposed neutral media outlets (sorry to pick up on an Andy point, but the BBC have let us down this last couple of years), but that's life...

Trade:

The EU operates on a similar basis to a "preferred suppliers list", it restricts free trade in measures that are often non-tariff based. There are advantages to this of course, depending where you are placed in particular services and your accessibility to import / export affordably and predictably. However, its also a constraint on your ability to exploit certain markets that would put you in direct competition with a particular EU state, meaning reduced opportunity to profit, reduced quality, reduced comparative advantage, and all the other advantages that come with competition. Leaving the EU doesn't remove access to the EU market (they rely on our trade to survive and are hardly going to refuse custom or opportunity into our market despite the spiteful propaganda spouted by EU politicians), it just removes the restriction, and I have faith in the skill of UK business to be able to exploit the new opportunities for our gain.

Politically:

It drives accountability of our own politicians home. If "we" vote in a government, regardless of my personal vote, I want them fully accountable for our policies, not hiding behind an EU decision, or only having a small say in EU policy which we are bound by. Nebulous maybe, but I expect them to work for us rather than blaming Brussells.

Immigration:

I don't think it's insensible to put restrictions of who walks, flies or sails into your country, and to not have it dictated to you by other EU states. There will always be an element that can't be controlled, any system can be defeated, by why invite it? Why have people travelling here to complete unskilled (I don't intend any disrespect as all work command respect) jobs, to send their pay "home" to another country, taking it out of our economy... or simply to come here and scrounge of our benefits system? There are other issues at home we need to deal with of course, but it doesn't mean that this should be ignored. "Dey tuk are jubs" or "nobody else would do the jobs" doesn't wash with me, certain UK people should be forced to complete undesirable work or simply lose their benefits... another argument of course.

I need to cut it here as my chips smell burnt, and I'm going to have to pretend I'm not hungry. But I will quickly state that I'm not anti-EU, I don't demonise it, our membership has been a positive for us historically, certainly in terms of our employment protections to the point where we are now far more attractive as employers than the rest of the EU. However, I think the tide has changed, the principles it was set out to achieve were achieved, and now it's become something else heading in the wrong direction. There's enough unrest in other EU states, and I expect that a few are wanting to see how our exit pans out before they take the same journey.

PS. I don't really care about the NI / Irish border, I live in the South of England and I am more interested in a decent diversion around Stonehenge so i can get to cricket quicker, the politicians can sort out a system / arrangement for our close neighbours.

Perhaps you'd return the courtesy and state, without being nebulous (I'm enjoying this addition to my vocabulary!), why you feel we are better to remain in the EU? We'll disagree of course, but I fully respect your position.

Wow...congratulations Adi...on one of the best contributions to this debate and by far the most articulate defence of Brexit I think I’ve heard.
You’re right of course, we’ll disagree but I too respect both you and your position.

In answer to your points, I genuinely don’t recognise your portrayal of ‘left wing anger and vitriol’. There is anger I accept...politics, like football, will always generate such emotion but I honestly haven’t seen anything from the left which compares with the hatred that was displayed towards ‘foreigners’ in the immediate post Referendum atmosphere or that is likely to be found at any event involving Tommy Robinson or his like.

I agree with your comments about satire, the subtlety is largely gone and all too often now the ‘comedy’ of political observation has come to resemble being hit repeatedly over the head with a blunt instrument. The BBC issue you raise however is interesting. The Right, even the reasonable Right - if that is not a paradox - are constantly carping about BBC bias and yet earlier today I was speaking to someone who makes me look very much right of centre and who made exactly the same claim...that the BBC is biased against the Left and Corbyn in particular. Maybe if the more extreme aspects of both Left and Right are complaining about the bias of the BBC they might have just about got a very difficult task right.

I don’t disagree entirely about immigration restrictions and I take your point.
I do disagree however about ‘foreigners’ taking ‘our’ jobs.
We’ve seen this before in relation to corner shops and taxi drivers. Here we have two areas of ‘industry’ which are very much dominated by Asians...in Derby at least. Why has that happened? Because the more ‘home grown’, for want of a much better expression, population didn’t want such employment...had no interest in the anti-social hours. I suspect that much the same is true as far as Polish plumbers are concerned and it’s not just the ‘unskilled’ jobs you refer to...my dentist, even in the comparatively ‘leafy’ Derbyshire Dales, is Romanian and a month or so ago when I underwent a minor operation only two of the six people in the operating theatre were English...the others comprising three Europeans and one Asian. These are examples of where our society really has benefited from immigration.

On Ireland I think you’re being naive. Not sure how old you are but the problem of Irish terrorism was something that impacted upon my life from the early seventies through to the late nineties. I certainly don’t want to encourage any situation that might see that scenario raise it’s particularly ugly head again.

Finally, you say, of the EU...’it has been a positive for us historically’. I can only agree...so why leave?
I accept that the EU is far from perfect and is not as accountable as it should be. I also agree that it has changed immeasurably from what it originally set out to achieve but overall, as even you appear to accept, it has done us far more good than harm. So why the rush to leave? We are self evidently wanted so why not stay and use our undoubted influence to change from within rather than leave and risk all sorts of unnecessary isolation?

I doubt you’ll agree but at least we’ve been civilised in our argument and can doubtless unite in our shared love of cricket and desire to defeat Forest on Monday.