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Thread: OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

  1. #6161
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    Somewhere.... where officious ****s who like wearing uniforms and enforcing stupid rules aren't in abundance!
    Maybe not Brussels then?

  2. #6162
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    Maybe not Brussels then?
    Or Nurenburg?

    #
    Gibralta it is then

  3. #6163
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    I don't need to buy a house, my investments aren't predicated on what happens to the UK with Brexit, I'm hedged against currency fluctuations...
    Okay...seems to me you’re either massively fortunate, an absolute genius or slightly delusional.
    No clearer on the secret of your unique immunity to future currency fluctuations and the vagaries of the property market but good luck anyway.

  4. #6164
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    I realise that its not your area of expertise, (but I don't fit any of your descriptions) I've said hedging against currency fluctuations, one doesn't hold ones savings purely in sterling, euros or dollars but switch it around in a strategy that takes account of current and forecast rates. For instance the US dollar is a good bet right now. That way one doesn't get caught out - its not foolproof of course but spreads the risk. One doesn't need millions to do this, but obviously a healthy enough savings/pension pot to make it worthwhile.

    I don't need to bother about the property market , but if prices fall then all properties will fall so it balances itself out unless you paid too much for it.(though a tip, I'd be buying property in the Uk now, prices are relatively low and not likely to rise much within the next couple of years but the demand is there and once the dust of Brexit settles it will increase. Though for those wanting to get into the housing market a fall of around 20% would be a good thing and also perhaps change this peculiar UK obsession with property as an investment rather than somewhere to live - lets face you have to live somewhere and pay for it, why obsess about what its worth?

    You seem to assume that Brexit will mean armageddon for the UK, in truth people like you and others wont notice much difference, the effects will be subtle and long term - certainly for those in the "left behind areas" will find out that the governments version of making things better for them will be requiring them to go out and get a job, most likely on not much more money than the jobs are available now, coupled with programmes to force them to get training .

    Businesses of course are already feeling the effects and these will range from additional costs, problems recruiting workers (irrespective of what the government says the UK workforce will not suddenly have an appetite for the jobs currently done by Eu workers), inability to access key markets to be undercut by cheap imports from elsewhere in the world. Many have and will continue to simply relocate part or all of their business into an EU country to the regrettable detriment of the UK economy but hey thats what Brexiteers apparently want.

    In reality I still suspect that there will be a lot of noise about the UK's its right to diverge from EU rules and regulations, but choose not to use that right much in practice, hammering out sector-specific arrangements beneath the cover of a headline deal where the government would opt for something suspiciously like the status quo. (For example manufacturing industries keen to keep selling inside the EU would need to stick to EU safety and regulatory standards even if some sought flexibility in the process of developing new products.).

    Lets face it they adopted a withdrawal agreement that was even worse than the one May agreed which was against what BJ promised, why would anyone assume what he says now will actually happen?
    Last edited by swaledale; 19-02-2020 at 02:02 PM.

  5. #6165
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    That's a well reasoned post, sand must be between your toes already!

  6. #6166
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    As I see things, and I may be wrong and am under no illusion that you won't tell me so and why, what's left of UK manufacturing will be left with decisions to make. Anything and everything they export to the EU will ALWAYS have to adhere to EU Laws/standards on quality, health and safety etc. just as everybody wishing to export to the UK from wherever in the world will have to adhere to UK Laws and standards unless they are reduced for one or more countries as part of a trade deal (Chlorinated chicked and growth hormone infested beef from the USA to name but 2 - both things I would hope people wouldn't buy, n matter how cheap they were but..... they will. won't they?).

    Do they also make similar goods of a lesser standard to export to places that will accept slightly inferior products of simply make quality stuff for everybody, knowing that some countries will demand lower prices because they are poorer than the EU or elsewhere?

    Having said that, I think the Tories are looking to increase the financial and services areas and don't seem particularly bothered with manufacturing. Time will tell.

    I also think that BoJo's Scotland to Ireland bridge will never get built but still cost millions, maybe even hundreds of miilions, the same as happened with his garden bridge in London that never got built but still cost £52M.

    He has already let all his Ministers know they have to reduce their budgets by 5%......... and they said cost cutting was over and they would be spending again. No money for health, education, HS2 etc. Plenty left in the tank though for tax cuts for the mega rich and the multinational corporations.

    Welcome to the 2020 UK. Heaven if you're a millionaire.

  7. #6167
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadAmster View Post
    As I see things, and I may be wrong and am under no illusion that you won't tell me so and why, what's left of UK manufacturing will be left with decisions to make. Anything and everything they export to the EU will ALWAYS have to adhere to EU Laws/standards on quality, health and safety etc. just as everybody wishing to export to the UK from wherever in the world will have to adhere to UK Laws and standards unless they are reduced for one or more countries as part of a trade deal (Chlorinated chicked and growth hormone infested beef from the USA to name but 2 - both things I would hope people wouldn't buy, n matter how cheap they were but..... they will. won't they?).

    Do they also make similar goods of a lesser standard to export to places that will accept slightly inferior products of simply make quality stuff for everybody, knowing that some countries will demand lower prices because they are poorer than the EU or elsewhere?

    Having said that, I think the Tories are looking to increase the financial and services areas and don't seem particularly bothered with manufacturing. Time will tell.

    I also think that BoJo's Scotland to Ireland bridge will never get built but still cost millions, maybe even hundreds of miilions, the same as happened with his garden bridge in London that never got built but still cost £52M.

    He has already let all his Ministers know they have to reduce their budgets by 5%......... and they said cost cutting was over and they would be spending again. No money for health, education, HS2 etc. Plenty left in the tank though for tax cuts for the mega rich and the multinational corporations.

    Welcome to the 2020 UK. Heaven if you're a millionaire.

    Ah thats where Johnson will have an issue. Financial Services require "passporting" rights to be able to operate within the EU, this is where I suspect the Uk Fishing Rights (you know the very thing that Fishermen voted Brexit to take back control of) will be bartered for access to the single market for Financial Services.

    Whilst i realise most people including most Brexiteers don't give a **** about this, Financial Services and consulting services including legal etc form a huge part of Uk exports, if we can't operate in the EU then we are seriously ****ed and that that threatens Londons place as the world's financial centre and the jobs, income and taxes it generates - London underpins the UK economy, it could survive without he rest of the UK, the Uk would be much poorer without it.

    Many firms in this sector have already set up branches or even moved HQ's to an EU country to avoid this. Why even Rees-Mogg moved the HQ of his hedge Fund to Dublin for that very reason!

    Despite all the rhetoric coming out of this government, reality will dictate much underhand and disguising of the final outcome, so that the Brexiteers think they have what they wanted when in reality it will not be the case.

    Witness that a "no deal" is now being termed an "Australian Deal" even though Australian does not have a trade deal with the EU!

  8. #6168
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    Ah thats where Johnson will have an issue. Financial Services require "passporting" rights to be able to operate within the EU,
    Almost all of the insurance companies that I deal with and report on have resolved the passporting rights issue with the help of a friendly insurance regulator in one of the remaining EU countries. Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Holland spring to mind. These jurisdictions do not simply allow nameplating, but demand a few local staff and a genuine micro office to be set up. A bit of pain in the arse but far from insurmountable.

    I'm sure the same is true of the other major insurers, reinsurers and Lloyd's - I don't see any of them leaving London. There may be a slight bleeding of jobs, but nothing major. The banking and stock market sectors may be different, but insurance seems to cope easily enough: they are used to the sort of process involved and have all theoretical offices in Bermuda etc anyway, which hasnt impacted UK based employment.

  9. #6169
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    I realise that its not your area of expertise, (but I don't fit any of your descriptions) I've said hedging against currency fluctuations, one doesn't hold ones savings purely in sterling, euros or dollars but switch it around in a strategy that takes account of current and forecast rates. For instance the US dollar is a good bet right now. That way one doesn't get caught out - its not foolproof of course but spreads the risk. One doesn't need millions to do this, but obviously a healthy enough savings/pension pot to make it worthwhile.

    I don't need to bother about the property market , but if prices fall then all properties will fall so it balances itself out unless you paid too much for it.(though a tip, I'd be buying property in the Uk now, prices are relatively low and not likely to rise much within the next couple of years but the demand is there and once the dust of Brexit settles it will increase. Though for those wanting to get into the housing market a fall of around 20% would be a good thing and also perhaps change this peculiar UK obsession with property as an investment rather than somewhere to live - lets face you have to live somewhere and pay for it, why obsess about what its worth?

    You seem to assume that Brexit will mean armageddon for the UK, in truth people like you and others wont notice much difference, the effects will be subtle and long term - certainly for those in the "left behind areas" will find out that the governments version of making things better for them will be requiring them to go out and get a job, most likely on not much more money than the jobs are available now, coupled with programmes to force them to get training .

    Businesses of course are already feeling the effects and these will range from additional costs, problems recruiting workers (irrespective of what the government says the UK workforce will not suddenly have an appetite for the jobs currently done by Eu workers), inability to access key markets to be undercut by cheap imports from elsewhere in the world. Many have and will continue to simply relocate part or all of their business into an EU country to the regrettable detriment of the UK economy but hey thats what Brexiteers apparently want.

    In reality I still suspect that there will be a lot of noise about the UK's its right to diverge from EU rules and regulations, but choose not to use that right much in practice, hammering out sector-specific arrangements beneath the cover of a headline deal where the government would opt for something suspiciously like the status quo. (For example manufacturing industries keen to keep selling inside the EU would need to stick to EU safety and regulatory standards even if some sought flexibility in the process of developing new products.).

    Lets face it they adopted a withdrawal agreement that was even worse than the one May agreed which was against what BJ promised, why would anyone assume what he says now will actually happen?
    Yep you’re right...certainly not my ‘area of expertise’.

    I am surprised though...I thought Brexit meaning ‘Armageddon for the UK’ was what you’d been preaching for the last three years and one of the few things we’ve agreed on.

    As for Swale the socialist currency speculator! Wow...that was a surprise. I wasn’t aware that I’d provided any ‘descriptions’ but you certainly don’t fit any stereotype.

  10. #6170
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
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    19,998
    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    Almost all of the insurance companies that I deal with and report on have resolved the passporting rights issue with the help of a friendly insurance regulator in one of the remaining EU countries. Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Holland spring to mind. These jurisdictions do not simply allow nameplating, but demand a few local staff and a genuine micro office to be set up. A bit of pain in the arse but far from insurmountable.

    I'm sure the same is true of the other major insurers, reinsurers and Lloyd's - I don't see any of them leaving London. There may be a slight bleeding of jobs, but nothing major. The banking and stock market sectors may be different, but insurance seems to cope easily enough: they are used to the sort of process involved and have all theoretical offices in Bermuda etc anyway, which hasnt impacted UK based employment.
    The rules regarding operation within the single market are quite clear. I've been involved with many such transfers with financial services industries over the past three years, involving many thousands of jobs and transactions, firms are moving to Frankfurt or Paris which are desperate to take the business. There has already been a financial impact and unless a deal is brokered that suits more will follow.

    For insurance it may be a different issue for banks it is not, same with legal services which is another big earner. You are also not taking into account the recruitment of staff, there are still question marks over the use of EU staff over here, what red tape will be involved (currently there is none under free movement) and the same for UK workers who relocate to the EU. Hence why considerable number of UK workers employed in these and other service sectors such as IT are obtaining citizenship of an EU country where they can.

    Of course there are ways round the issue, but the important matter is that there are costs and no industry will carry extra costs if there is a way of avoiding them.

    The impact already has been considerable, HSBC are in the process of moving large numbers of activities and staff into the EU and unless a simple quid pro quo is agreed with a trade deal then the impact will be significant, BUT I don't see that the government will not agree to a deal which protects a major part of the Uk economy.

    For obvious reasons companies aren't necessarily admitting whats going on, but I can assure you it is.

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