OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

The rules of origin one is tricky, I think I mentioned that one way back, it was the subject of discussion at a seminar I went to amongst normal people (ie not politicians). I think you'll find it's a little bit of a scare story, there' a mass of ifs, buts and maybes in there and you need to take heed of the detail not the press IMO.

Funny how often the old just another ‘scare story’ theory is trotted out Andy. Lots of ifs, buts and scare stories, I agree...some of them very well founded and none of them good for business.
At the risk of ‘cross threading’ it’s odd how ‘scare stories’ about certain issues, Muslim terrorists and grooming gangs springs to mind, are given such credence by the likes of the Mail, Express and Sun while others - about Brexit - are dismissed as, ‘just another Remoaning scare story’. Wonder why that might be.

Congratulations ‘Amster...on posting the most technical post ever seen on FM.

[Andy_Faber]

Funny how often the old just another ‘scare story’ theory is trotted out Andy. Lots of ifs, buts and scare stories, I agree...some of them very well founded and none of them good for business.
At the risk of ‘cross threading’ it’s odd how ‘scare stories’ about certain issues, Muslim terrorists and grooming gangs springs to mind, are given such credence by the likes of the Mail, Express and Sun while others - about Brexit - are dismissed as, ‘just another Remoaning scare story’. Wonder why that might be.

Congratulations ‘Amster...on posting the most technical post ever seen on FM.

I don't think ANY of the issues you mention are without foundation, and all are either 'sensationalised' or 'desensationalised' at media level according to the leanings of whoever is putting the message out there. Personally I'm more bothered about my children and Godchildren being safe on the streets of Derby than whether my washer has a bolt from Croatia in it, but that's just personal choice, in all cases the truth lies in the detail (eg the tome MA posted, which I am depressingly familiar with) rather than the media, which I think was the point I was making sort of on the Tommy Robinson thread

Edit. I've just read the I online article and the headline doesn't even agree with the content. Read the headline very carefully, then read the narrative very carefully. Scaremongering sorry.

[ramAnag]

I don't think ANY of the issues you mention are without foundation, and all are either 'sensationalised' or 'desensationalised' at media level according to the leanings of whoever is putting the message out there. Personally I'm more bothered about my children and Godchildren being safe on the streets of Derby than whether my washer has a bolt from Croatia in it, but that's just personal choice, in all cases the truth lies in the detail (eg the tome MA posted, which I am depressingly familiar with) rather than the media, which I think was the point I was making sort of on the Tommy Robinson thread

Edit. I've just read the I online article and the headline doesn't even agree with the content. Read the headline very carefully, then read the narrative very carefully. Scaremongering sorry.

The two aren’t mutually exclusive Andy. I too am, needless to say, ‘bothered about’ my children, grandchildren and Godchild being safe on the streets. I’d also like them to have access to employment and live in a stable climate, but the question for me isn’t whether there’s a ‘bolt from Croatia’ in something, it’s whether there will remain a market for UK goods that provides the jobs I refer to.

[Manofpride]

The two aren’t mutually exclusive Andy. I too am, needless to say, ‘bothered about’ my children, grandchildren and Godchild being safe on the streets. I’d also like them to have access to employment and live in a stable climate, but the question for me isn’t whether there’s a ‘bolt from Croatia’ in something, it’s whether there will remain a market for UK goods that provides the jobs I refer to.

I suppose if it all goes tits up we could all go and live somewhere in the EU. It's so prosperous there I believe! we'll want for nothing so it's a win win!!

[ramAnag]

I suppose if it all goes tits up we could all go and live somewhere in the EU. It's so prosperous there I believe! we'll want for nothing so it's a win win!!

Well we could have done...before Brexit!

[MadAmster]

Come on over. It's the land of milk and honey

Holland and Germany bricking themselves at the thought of how much extra money they will have to put into the EU each year if the UK ever does actually leave it. Not something I am certain of, even now.

The eastern bloc members of the EU are following the lead of the likes of France,Spain and others in syaing yes to just about everything the EU puts on the table and then ignoring the bits that might negatively impact them.

The Italians are ever more disenchanted with life in the EU. They just voted a coalition in that is very much Euro-sceptic and was thinking, very much out loud, of withdrawing from the Euro. Not something the EU Commissioners like so, according to press reports, they had a word with the Italian President who then refused to accept the coalition and/or its policies and ordered them to go off and form another one with other parties which would, hopefully, ditch the "ditch the Euro" policy. This may still backfire as it is proving veru difficult to cobble a different coalition together and it may yet lead to a new General Election which would, IMO, lead to many more votes going to the Euro-Sceptic parties and then the President would have no choice but to accept the new coalition, complete with the Eurozone withdrawal. Should that happen then, IMO, the domino effect will kick in and kill the EU.

With regard to Brexit, and I may be totally wrong on this, I foresee 2 possible outcomes. One is no deal which means no divorce payment to the EU and we go to the WTO trading tariffs which will increase the cost of both imports and exports from/to the EU. The other is that we don't leave as no deal satisfactory to both sides so we leave the umbilical chord not completely severed and we adhere to EU Law whilst no longer being in the EU so we have no say in new Law or in changes to that Law. This would lead to grand scale riots.

I discount remaining as a full member as that would cause a riot much greater than those my 2nd option would lead to.

[ramAnag]

Come on over. It's the land of milk and honey

Holland and Germany bricking themselves at the thought of how much extra money they will have to put into the EU each year if the UK ever does actually leave it. Not something I am certain of, even now.

The eastern bloc members of the EU are following the lead of the likes of France,Spain and others in syaing yes to just about everything the EU puts on the table and then ignoring the bits that might negatively impact them.

The Italians are ever more disenchanted with life in the EU. They just voted a coalition in that is very much Euro-sceptic and was thinking, very much out loud, of withdrawing from the Euro. Not something the EU Commissioners like so, according to press reports, they had a word with the Italian President who then refused to accept the coalition and/or its policies and ordered them to go off and form another one with other parties which would, hopefully, ditch the "ditch the Euro" policy. This may still backfire as it is proving veru difficult to cobble a different coalition together and it may yet lead to a new General Election which would, IMO, lead to many more votes going to the Euro-Sceptic parties and then the President would have no choice but to accept the new coalition, complete with the Eurozone withdrawal. Should that happen then, IMO, the domino effect will kick in and kill the EU.

With regard to Brexit, and I may be totally wrong on this, I foresee 2 possible outcomes. One is no deal which means no divorce payment to the EU and we go to the WTO trading tariffs which will increase the cost of both imports and exports from/to the EU. The other is that we don't leave as no deal satisfactory to both sides so we leave the umbilical chord not completely severed and we adhere to EU Law whilst no longer being in the EU so we have no say in new Law or in changes to that Law. This would lead to grand scale riots.

I discount remaining as a full member as that would cause a riot much greater than those my 2nd option would lead to.

We aren’t going to leave ‘Amster. Ever so slowly it is beginning to dawn on many of those who voted ‘Leave’ that the disadvantages vastly outweigh the advantages. The risks are too great and the desire, both public and political, is waning from what was always just the outpourings of an unlikely alliance of genuine frustration and vociferous bigotry.
The EU doesn’t want us to leave and the difference about the Italian situation is that they don’t actually want to leave...they want to change from within.
There is much to be admired about the whole concept of the EU and we need to be part of it. That isn’t to say that it hasn’t become a flawed concept. The only good thing about Brexit, imo, is that it has flagged up concerns in a number of European countries that things need to change...that it has become too undemocratic, too unanswerable and too bureaucratic...other than that it has just been a huge waste of time, money and forum space.
At the end of the day...a hard Brexit would, imo, destroy us - in the short term at least - and a ‘soft’ Brexit equates to continued membership in a trading sense but the loss of any UK ‘voice’ in the running of the EU. Either way...it’s a lose, lose situation and the sooner we wake up to the realisation that Boris Johnson is nothing other than a Machiavellian, self seeking enemy of the people the better.

[MadAmster]

1. We aren’t going to leave ‘Amster.

2. The EU doesn’t want us to leave and the difference about the Italian situation is that they don’t actually want to leave...they want to change from within.

3. There is much to be admired about the whole concept of the EU and we need to be part of it. That isn’t to say that it hasn’t become a flawed concept. The only good thing about Brexit, imo, is that it has flagged up concerns in a number of European countries that things need to change...that it has become too undemocratic, too unanswerable and too bureaucratic...other than that it has just been a huge waste of time, money and forum space.

4. At the end of the day...a hard Brexit would, imo, destroy us - in the short term at least - and a ‘soft’ Brexit equates to continued membership in a trading sense but the loss of any UK ‘voice’ in the running of the EU. Either way...it’s a lose, lose situation and the sooner we wake up to the realisation that Boris Johnson is nothing other than a Machiavellian, self seeking enemy of the people the better.

1. Something deeply embedded in my thoughts for quite a while rA. I will believe it when I see it.

2. Correct. Italy isn't looking to leave the EU. However, the 2 largest parties put together a coalition with leaving the Eurozone as one their main priorities. That idea scares the hell out of the EU heirarchy and they stepped in to stop that particular coalition being formed. The Italian electorate will not forget that. IMO, if the original coalition gets off the ground it will take Italy out of the Eurozone and almost definitely signal, at the very least, the beginning of the end of the Eurozone and possibly even the end of the EU.

3. The EU has become too unwiedly and, as you rightly say, too undemocratic, too unanswerable and too bureaucratic. About the time populist ideals seemed to be gaining speed around the world, Trump, discontent in Germany, France and other European countries, Juncker et al started spouting rubbish about "we hear you" and "we will give you less Europe in your lives" to appease people. Brexit led to them to change back to the "more Brussels" line of thinking and that is now the path they are going down. They always swore an EU Army wasn't even a dim, distant thought. They lied, the plans are there and it is coming to fruition. They always said a Federal Europe (US of E) wasn't the idea.... oh yes it is and always has been since the initial talks between the 6 countries that formed the very first "Common Market" way back when. Again, they lied. Having said that, we should remember that they are politicians and that we always know when they are lying.... their lips move. Cynical? Maybe but who can blame me?

4. IMO, as long as Mayhem is in charge, there is a far greater chance of a hard Brexit than there is of a soft one. No deal is better than a bad deal. How many times has she said that? She knows what those who voted Leave want. If they don't get the majority of what they want, to quote Enoch Powell, there will be rivers of blood. Not, in the main, for the reasons Enoch thought but because an awful lot of people will take action, physical action as opposed to the words which Remoaners use. Therein lies a difference. Brexiteers are more rebellious, if that is the right word, than their remain counterparts. Correct word or not, it will carry the meaning I intend.

[Manofpride]

1. Something deeply embedded in my thoughts for quite a while rA. I will believe it when I see it.

2. Correct. Italy isn't looking to leave the EU. However, the 2 largest parties put together a coalition with leaving the Eurozone as one their main priorities. That idea scares the hell out of the EU heirarchy and they stepped in to stop that particular coalition being formed. The Italian electorate will not forget that. IMO, if the original coalition gets off the ground it will take Italy out of the Eurozone and almost definitely signal, at the very least, the beginning of the end of the Eurozone and possibly even the end of the EU.

3. The EU has become too unwiedly and, as you rightly say, too undemocratic, too unanswerable and too bureaucratic. About the time populist ideals seemed to be gaining speed around the world, Trump, discontent in Germany, France and other European countries, Juncker et al started spouting rubbish about "we hear you" and "we will give you less Europe in your lives" to appease people. Brexit led to them to change back to the "more Brussels" line of thinking and that is now the path they are going down. They always swore an EU Army wasn't even a dim, distant thought. They lied, the plans are there and it is coming to fruition. They always said a Federal Europe (US of E) wasn't the idea.... oh yes it is and always has been since the initial talks between the 6 countries that formed the very first "Common Market" way back when. Again, they lied. Having said that, we should remember that they are politicians and that we always know when they are lying.... their lips move. Cynical? Maybe but who can blame me?

4. IMO, as long as Mayhem is in charge, there is a far greater chance of a hard Brexit than there is of a soft one. No deal is better than a bad deal. How many times has she said that? She knows what those who voted Leave want. If they don't get the majority of what they want, to quote Enoch Powell, there will be rivers of blood. Not, in the main, for the reasons Enoch thought but because an awful lot of people will take action, physical action as opposed to the words which Remoaners use. Therein lies a difference. Brexiteers are more rebellious, if that is the right word, than their remain counterparts. Correct word or not, it will carry the meaning I intend.

That just about sums it up! Also I think we'll leave!

[ramAnag]

That just about sums it up! Also I think we'll leave!

So, other arguments aside - to avoid being repetitive and not because they are no longer relevant - is the latest suggestion that Brexit will go ahead because the wrath of disgruntled Brexiteers will take a more physical/violent/disruptive form than the more logical and reasoned objections of the ‘Remainers’?
Seems to be the consensus of the last two posts. Is ‘bovver boot’ politics really what we’ve come to in GB 2018?