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Thread: The end of the union

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by InversneckieDob View Post

    But the more I see of the vileness of Westminster, the more I crave an independent Scotland.
    I'll never vote for the NATs though.
    That was the trouble for some at the last independence vote.
    They couldn't see it as a gateway to then be able to vote for whichever party best held their views in an independent Scotland.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getintaethem View Post
    So 30% wanting to be independent from the EU is not a sizeable support? (without any major parties in Ireland supporting it, pushing it, discussing it etc.)

    30% the historical figure of people in Scotland right up to 2014 that supported independence from the UK. (with one major party in Scotland standing for it, pushing for it and discussing it at every turn.).
    That poll showed 28% wanting to leave if there's a hard Brexit that affects Ireland's access to the UK market (if there isn't a hard Brexit then it would be less than 28%). That's extremely low support for leaving the EU by European standards - basically widespread consensus that staying in the EU is a good thing even in hypothetical scenarios where it results in Ireland losing access to its most important market.

    And that was just one poll, if you go back through the Eurobarometer data on this the Irish have consistently shown extremely strong support for the EU. The 2016 Eurobarometer, for instance, only had 14% viewing the EU negatively. If you want to push the anti-EU angle (fairly obvious from the language you're using here) then Ireland is one of the worst countries you could have picked for that purpose. There's far more chance of us leaving the UK and joining Ireland in the EU than there is of the Irish leaving the EU and joining us in whatever 1950s fantasy the likes of David Davis and Liam Fox have in mind for us.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donanddusted View Post
    That was the trouble for some at the last independence vote.
    They couldn't see it as a gateway to then be able to vote for whichever party best held their views in an independent Scotland.
    It's a valid viewpoint. Anyone who thinks that a now-established establishment party like the SNP will fragment according to the current left-right political spectrum must have their head zipped up the back. In the event of Scotland becoming independent, they would lose a few hundred members, but hardly any MPs, MSPs, or wannabes.

    Like other establishment parties, the individual rewards of political patronage and outright power would see the SNP continue pretty much as it is, a party on a permanent election footing, talking the talk of the 'centre-left', whilst being no more radical than New Labour (whose manifesto they replicated in 2007) or the Lib-Dems.

    There is a substantial queue at the ticket office to ride aboard the biscuit-wheeled gravy train, and I have been party to candidates being selected on the basis of 'it's his/her turn' rather than the best, most experienced candidate for the role.

    Then you have the legal establishment, the educational establishment, the religious establishment, the Scottish CBI etc etc who will ensure that constitutional change will mean no change.

    The market will prevail, as will the SNP and its propping-up of it.
    Last edited by 57vintage; 07-03-2017 at 11:59 AM. Reason: Spellin like a ****ing gype

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by 57vintage View Post
    It's a valid viewpoint. Anyone who thinks that a now-established establishment party like the SNP will fragment according to the current left-right political spectrum must have their head zipped up the back. In the event of Scotland becoming independent, they would lose a few hundred members, but hardly any MPs, MSPs, or wannabes.

    Like other establishment parties, the individual rewards of political patronage and outright power would see the SNP continue pretty much as it is, a party on a permanent election footing, talking the talk of the 'centre-left', whilst being no more radical than New Labour (whose manifesto they replicated in 2007) or the Lib-Dems.

    There is a substantial queue at the ticket office to ride aboard the biscuit-wheeled gravy train, and I have been party to candidates being selected on the basis of 'it's his/her turn' rather than the best, most experienced candidate for the role.

    Then you have the legal establishment, the educational establishment, the religious establishment, the Scottish CBI etc etc who will ensure that constitutional change will mean no change.

    The market will prevail, as will the SNP and its propping-up of it.
    Still better than what's on offer just now imo.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mason89 View Post
    Still better than what's on offer just now imo.
    This is an interesting point. If we became independent then as a country we would need to face up to the responsibility of governing as a nation. Most countries around the world (democratic countries) have a right wing party and a left wing party. People said that in Scotland no one would vote Tory, but in the past few years their support has gone from mid-****s or below to now over 25%. At the last Scottish elections they stood at around 20% (before the last election no one believed they would become the second largest party in Holyrood). The more there is talk of independence, the more their support goes up. If we were independent and the Tories were not perceived as an English party but a truly "independent" Scottish party then I cannot see how this level of support would not go up even further. The polls on people's views on most subjects show that the Scottish and English people's views are pretty similar. So here is the crazy thought for today. With independence, I believe we would end up with a Tory Government in Scotland.

    Why would we get a Tory Government in Scotland?

    Putting aside the politics for a minute. We are currently running a deficit of over $14bn or 9% of GDP. If we were independent then we would need to borrow a lot of cash per year (something we cannot do if we want to join the EU as the rules require much lower deficits than that), increase taxes substantially (sturgeon already said that if she did that then business would move to England - in fact post independence sturgeon was going to reduce corporation taxes) or reduce public services dramatically. So in an independent Scotland if we take Sturgeon at her word and abide by EU regulations we would need to cut public spending. To put this another way, in order to balance the books (everything remaining as it is today) we would need to cut a fifth off of all public sector spending - that is without any businesses moving out of Scotland due to independence and Scotland being able to keep the pound etc. You could say that we would attract a lot more companies to Scotland post independence but the reality is that this takes years or decades to achieve, businesses would need to see stable government and public finances. The reality is we have not been very successful at attracting new well paid jobs to Scotland over the past couple decades.

    The reality is that the SNP Government would probably borrow more than is allowed to under the EU rules, raise taxes and reduce spending in some sort of fudge. However, this would still cause support for the SNP to fall and the Tories would ultimately see the benefit and be able to govern in some sort of coalition with Labour and/or the Lib Dems (or run a minority Government) in the next 2 to 3 election cycles. So get independence to stop the tories ruling over us from Westminster only to get the tories ruling over us from Holyrood.

    You could say this is fantasy stuff, but it really does not take a genius to realise that the SNP will not hold power forever post independence. Now, what would be the first thing a Tory government do in Scotland post election?

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getintaethem View Post
    Now, what would be the first thing a Tory government do in Scotland post election?
    I agree entirely that support for other parties would definitely rise but if you mean Tory government would look to rejoin the UK, well, they'd need another referendum for starters and who is to say the rest of the UK would want us back?

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donanddusted View Post
    I agree entirely that support for other parties would definitely rise but if you mean Tory government would look to rejoin the UK, well, they'd need another referendum for starters and who is to say the rest of the UK would want us back?
    I think that is a strong possibility if Scotland became independent now. As Sillars says, this is the worst possible time to hold a referendum. Not just because it is hard to win it, but if we did become independent our finances are in such a truly shocking state that it would be almost impossible to make a success of the economy, hold up public spending and not have to tax everyone a lot more. This is as things stand now without any other shocks such as any financial institutions moving out to close by cities such as Newcastle.

    A bad economy makes it more likely to get a conservative led government in an independent Scotland and more likely that there would be support to go back into the Union. It would not take a big swing to win that referendum - so why wouldn't the tories back up by Labour and Lib Dems go for it?

    Would the rest of the UK agree to this? Who knows, but my gut feeling is that if Ireland ever did have a referendum to rejoin the UK (unlikely that that is), would the UK not take them back? I believe they would. The terms of re-entry back into the UK would depend on how bad the economy was in Scotland at the time but it was unlikely we would get such good terms e.g. Barnett formula etc.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by 57vintage View Post
    It's a valid viewpoint. Anyone who thinks that a now-established establishment party like the SNP will fragment according to the current left-right political spectrum must have their head zipped up the back. In the event of Scotland becoming independent, they would lose a few hundred members, but hardly any MPs, MSPs, or wannabes.
    i'm pretty sure they'd lose 56 MPs?

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getintaethem View Post
    I think that is a strong possibility if Scotland became independent now. As Sillars says, this is the worst possible time to hold a referendum. Not just because it is hard to win it, but if we did become independent our finances are in such a truly shocking state that it would be almost impossible to make a success of the economy, hold up public spending and not have to tax everyone a lot more. This is as things stand now without any other shocks such as any financial institutions moving out to close by cities such as Newcastle.

    A bad economy makes it more likely to get a conservative led government in an independent Scotland and more likely that there would be support to go back into the Union. It would not take a big swing to win that referendum - so why wouldn't the tories back up by Labour and Lib Dems go for it?

    Would the rest of the UK agree to this? Who knows, but my gut feeling is that if Ireland ever did have a referendum to rejoin the UK (unlikely that that is), would the UK not take them back? I believe they would. The terms of re-entry back into the UK would depend on how bad the economy was in Scotland at the time but it was unlikely we would get such good terms e.g. Barnett formula etc.
    Go and lie down.

    There's never been a country ever that wanted un-independence. If by some astonishing fluke The Mooth did get her party to be the largest (let's be honest, they'd never have a majority), she'd not cede power to another country, she's power/fame mental, hence her frequent forays to preach in England and get her face on panel shows.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatshaft View Post
    Go and lie down.

    There's never been a country ever that wanted un-independence. If by some astonishing fluke The Mooth did get her party to be the largest (let's be honest, they'd never have a majority), she'd not cede power to another country, she's power/fame mental, hence her frequent forays to preach in England and get her face on panel shows.
    There are a huge number of countries that have changed status and joined other countries. In fact, Scotland itself is an example of a country that wanted un-independence when it ceded sovereignty to the union.

    It is funny how things change in unexpected ways. A few short years ago if someone had said the Tories could become the largest party in Scotland, in the foreseeable future, they would have been hounded out of here. Now, there is an admission that they could become the governing party in Scotland (albeit without a majority).

    The purpose of the SNP is independence. The purpose of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party is quite clearly "union".

    The Scottish election system is bias against any single party winning a majority. It has only happened once. If the tories got into power all they would need is a majority of unionist parties in favour of a referendum. Just like the SNP right now need the Greens to vote for their referendum. And they would not need to go to the UK for permission. As all other parties in Scotland are in favour of the Union then it is conceivable that they would (under the right conditions) call for a referendum. That would most likely come right after winning control of the Scottish Parliament as support for the SNP will be at a low and as the finances are likely to be in a "bit of a state" probably support for independence will also be waining. If they won that, then they would have a clear mandate to start negotiations to reenter the UK. Would the UK say no - they could but I doubt it.

    The majority in the country clearly do not want another independence referendum, however, if you are someone that wants the union to survive this is probably the best time for the SNP to call one. This is even admitted by grandees in the SNP. The likelihood of success is low but even if it did succeed, the finances are in such a terrible state the likelihood of reunification in a few short years is high.

    On the other hand, Scotland may get independence and become a land of milk and honey. Now, I do need to lie down.

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