The end of the union

[Getintaethem]

The Gers figures and the £15 billion deficit are now by broad agreement,
A guesstimate made by Westminster treasury department officials that admit they are a dodgy indicator of what the finances of an independent Scotland might look like .
And those figures look considerably brighter following the report of a major oil find off Shetland that could generate more than one billion barrels.

The GERS figures are the figures that are used by the Scottish Government for all manner of things.

The GERS figures are produced by Scottish Government statisticians. Therefore they are Scottish Government numbers - not produced by Westminster.

They were used by the SNP at the last referendum and they have used them every year they have been in Government.

Why is it only now that we are hearing that they are guesstimates when they do not suit the SNP? Where is this broad agreement? Wings over Scotland does not count.

What is the estimate by how much the GERS figures out by? £1bn, £2bn... does not make a serious dent in the £15bn deficit. And as I said before, if they are out, then they could be out in the wrong direction by that £1bn or £2bn so we could be in a worse position financially.

[Disco Buc]

Here's a good read.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/po...arebar_twitter

[Getintaethem]

Here is a good read for you if you havent read it already

http://www.thenational.scot/comment/...defying_logic/

This was written by a SNP MSP.

Economists and the agencies that work out risk on Government debt have said that this level of deficit would need public sector cuts and/or tax increases. In an independent Scotland, the Scottish Government just could not go out and borrow more like that MSP says because at 10% deficit rate our Government bonds would be at junk status. This is not an opinion, this is the opinion of the people that say what rates Governments could borrow at. So both government spending would be but and taxes raised... both on a scale that are unprecedented in Scotland's history in the Union.

You can deny this and say that noone knows what will happen but as sure as day follows night - there are only 3 options an independent scotland would have... borrow more (like the MSP said and has been ruled out by the people slightly more knowledgeable than him), increase taxes or reduce spending.

The deficit is £15bn. To put that into simple terms. If we were to raise income tax to wipe out the annual deficit, we would need to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 50%, the higher rate from 40% to 70% and the additional rate from 45% to 75%. Even to cut it to his 7% that is 6% on all these income taxes (but 7% is still far too high to enter the EU). To gain entry into the EU we would need to increase income tax by 14%. I am using income tax because it is by far in way the easiest way of raising a huge amount of tax for a country.

This is before you take into account any transfer of UK debt to Scotland or costs of a new currency or any other costs of independence - or risks of businesses moving to the UK etc.

Now, we could get rid of Trident and not pay our share of capital projects that the UK has earmarked and reduce our proportional spend on the military (bad idea if we wanted into NATO). Even with all those things added up we could only reduce the deficit by £2bn per year - leaving £13bn to be raised in taxes or reduced government spending.




This is the present situation we find ourselves in.

[Getintaethem]

Here's a good read.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/po...arebar_twitter

GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for their accuracy. Who in the SNP is saying that the figures that their own Government are producing are wrong? Why have these people not been sacked if they are producing figures that are inaccurate and making the SNP Government to be total clowns?

Who is wrong, the group within the Scottish Government who has the responsibility of coming up with these figures and are signed off by the top statistician in the country or a professor who did work for Corbyn but whom even Corbyn fell out with?

His rules for his blog apparently include the following beauty: Comments wont get published if they are promoting an opinion usually associated with the far right political fringes (for these purposes the UK Independence Party and beyond within the UK domestic environment). So, as long as you agree with his views you can comment on his blog posts. Echo chamber alive and well then.

He has also apparently admitted to setting up at least one business in Ireland in order to avoid paying UK tax.

Sounds a fine fellow.

[Disco Buc]

Ah well .

See you have mentioned Trident what a waste of money 100 billion in 2014 we were told by 2016 costs went up to nearly 300 billion to replace.

Trident can kill up to 320 million people where's the good in that . Men woman and children over 99% of people who mean no wrong but to live a life like you and me.

The 5 category B incidents over the years have been at Faslane 2 at Devonport one in the middle of the Mediterranean and finally one off the coast of Norway. Category A being catastrophic killing millions .

Norway can well afford to have Trident but they see Trident as inhumane.

[Disco Buc]

Norway's no way.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-d...b_2862919.html

[Mason89]

I wouldn't trust the figure for incidents at Faslane.

[Disco Buc]

I wouldn't trust the figure for incidents at Faslane.

I got that figures of incidents from the government via EMail 2014.

I spoke to a liberal lass who was out canvassing i asked her that question and fair play to her she took my Email address and replied via the Westminster government.

That lad Johnathan who is leader of CND Aberdeen i forwarded it to him.
I'm sure he will still have that Email..
Last i heard her been having some health problems.

[Mason89]

I don't doubt that there's at least as many as you say but I would think that the true number is higher.

[Disco Buc]

Norway's no way.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-d...b_2862919.html

If Johnathon still has that details here's his email address and some info.

http://www.banthebomb.org/index.php/...2-aberdeen-cnd

Sorry rushing the post need to pick up my wife running late .
Meant for you Mason.