The end of the union

[ohno]

What are the estimates around the GERS figures that make a dent on the £15bn deficit? A deficit of £1.7bn is worrying but borrowing more is hardly the answer.

Scotland gets independence and we stop austerity. How, by borrowing more money and spend and we will be able to reduce the deficit and ultimately debt? Even if that had been proven to work, the EU would not allow it if we were ever to consider joining it. Secondly, our Government bonds would have junk status if we even considered borrowing to maintain our existing deficit when we are already running the largest deficit in the western world.

This is not me saying it. Moody's have said that Scotland would be facing a high fiscal imbalance that we would immediately need to deal with. What this means is less spending and higher taxes (the deficit is equivalent to £5,600 per year for every worker in Scotland so obviously higher taxes wont cut it on its own).

So get independence and get austerity max.

This is not like the uncertainty of what would happen after Brexit that we can all argue about. This is reality. This is why even some grandees in the SNP are saying this is the worst possible time to call for a referendum.

The Gers figures as you say and I agree aren't accurate they are a very poor estimates however in the next 5 years the UK debt could easily be £3T in the next few years at current levels.
Here's another thought the NHS is being run down so the Tories can put it out to not be fit for the purpose therefore needs to be funded by insurance policies paid by all.
Whether you agree or disagree with private healthcare it will be forced on Scotland as the NHS budget will be decimated

[Stupie82]

Would like to say both sides of this political discussion have been put across very well .
Would like to add also in a friendly manner very commendable indeed.
Nice one lads.

Well said Buc... couldnt agree more!

We should find out today about the Holyrood vote on Indyref2! No doubt it will get the green light and i would expect some backtracking from Theresa May on this. She said "now is the not time" for it, but she will likely shoot down the media outlets portraying that as she wouldnt allow it to happen at all. She will of course let it happen!


SKY NEWS :
SNP Angus Robertson: Goes again on UK-wide agreement before triggering Brexit

He pushed her on this last week. May had said that she would reach UK-wide agreement on Brexit before triggering Article 50 - Robertson points out she has not.

May says Brexit plan is for all the people of the UK.

Robertson says both houses had say so why not people of Scotland?

May: This isn't about whether people of Scotland should have a choice... they made choice in 2014 independence vote.

She has a point there to be fair, but it is also the reason why IMO, we need to be independent. These decisions can and will be made by the UK government as a whole, because it was a UK vote. Scotlands voting pattern for Brexit is of little concern to her and is merely a stat. She views Scotland as part of the UK, which it is and the Scottish public made sure of that. I have seen so many people who voted NO in the referendum, complain that she shouldnt be able to pull us out of the EU... well sorry but thats exactly what they voted for when they wanted to stay in a union. BAsed on those type of people, I would expect a much higher swing towards YES this time around, albeit maybe not a majority.

[ohno]

Well said Buc... couldnt agree more!

We should find out today about the Holyrood vote on Indyref2! No doubt it will get the green light and i would expect some backtracking from Theresa May on this. She said "now is the not time" for it, but she will likely shoot down the media outlets portraying that as she wouldnt allow it to happen at all. She will of course let it happen!


SKY NEWS :
SNP Angus Robertson: Goes again on UK-wide agreement before triggering Brexit

He pushed her on this last week. May had said that she would reach UK-wide agreement on Brexit before triggering Article 50 - Robertson points out she has not.

May says Brexit plan is for all the people of the UK.

Robertson says both houses had say so why not people of Scotland?

May: This isn't about whether people of Scotland should have a choice... they made choice in 2014 independence vote.

She has a point there to be fair, but it is also the reason why IMO, we need to be independent. These decisions can and will be made by the UK government as a whole, because it was a UK vote. Scotlands voting pattern for Brexit is of little concern to her and is merely a stat. She views Scotland as part of the UK, which it is and the Scottish public made sure of that. I have seen so many people who voted NO in the referendum, complain that she shouldnt be able to pull us out of the EU... well sorry but thats exactly what they voted for when they wanted to stay in a union. BAsed on those type of people, I would expect a much higher swing towards YES this time around, albeit maybe not a majority.

Exactly if 100% of Scotland voted to remain it wouldn't make any difference. "Do what your and like it!"

[57vintage]

Exactly if 100% of Scotland voted to remain it wouldn't make any difference. "Do what your and like it!"

Despite that being an absurdly simplistic calculation, it's not correct. Alternative truth, false facts.

All UK Leave votes, excepting Scotland, numbered 16392420, Remain aggregating 14480050.

If everyone (your 100%) who voted in Scotland had voted Remain (2679513), that number added to the rest of the UK's Remain vote would give a total of 17159563, outstripping the Leave vote of 16392420 by 767143. Add in Gibraltar's majority to Remain and the gap widens a bit more. That would mean that the UK would not be leaving the EU, and we would not be in the constitutional and almost certainly economic clusterf>ck as we are.

It wasn't clear-cut along party lines either. The whole of Scotland's Leave vote amounted to 38% of those who voted. Research has shown that the proportion of both Nationalist and Labour voters who voted Leave almost exactly matched that.

High-profile figures in both parties also voted Leave (Alex Neil, Jim Sillars most notably, with Neil saying that he knew of a number of SNP MSPs who had also voted Leave, and Labour's Tom Harris headed up a Scottish Leave campaign).

Statistics, minskirts etc.

[ohno]

Despite that being an absurdly simplistic calculation, it's not correct. Alternative truth, false facts.

All UK Leave votes, excepting Scotland, numbered 16392420, Remain aggregating 14480050.

If everyone (your 100%) who voted in Scotland had voted Remain (2679513), that number added to the rest of the UK's Remain vote would give a total of 17159563, outstripping the Leave vote of 16392420 by 767143. Add in Gibraltar's majority to Remain and the gap widens a bit more. That would mean that the UK would not be leaving the EU, and we would not be in the constitutional and almost certainly economic clusterf>ck as we are.

It wasn't clear-cut along party lines either. The whole of Scotland's Leave vote amounted to 38% of those who voted. Research has shown that the proportion of both Nationalist and Labour voters who voted Leave almost exactly matched that.

High-profile figures in both parties also voted Leave (Alex Neil, Jim Sillars most notably, with Neil saying that he knew of a number of SNP MSPs who had also voted Leave, and Labour's Tom Harris headed up a Scottish Leave campaign).

Statistics, minskirts etc.

You are right.What I should have said was even with significant numbers in favour of remaining we can be outvoted by a relatively
small differentials in England. Good old Ebbe

[Brian Grantland]

The Gers figures as you say and I agree aren't accurate they are a very poor estimates

on what basis do you make this assertion?

when did you come to this conclusion?

[57vintage]

You are right.What I should have said was even with significant numbers in favour of remaining we can be outvoted by a relatively
small differentials in England. Good old Ebbe

I read that as "good old Elsie".

[Getintaethem]

The Gers figures as you say and I agree aren't accurate they are a very poor estimates however in the next 5 years the UK debt could easily be £3T in the next few years at current levels.
Here's another thought the NHS is being run down so the Tories can put it out to not be fit for the purpose therefore needs to be funded by insurance policies paid by all.
Whether you agree or disagree with private healthcare it will be forced on Scotland as the NHS budget will be decimated

I didn't say the Ger figures were inaccurate.

With regards to the NHS, that will not happen for 3 reasons. Firstly, the NHS has been around for 70 off years and even though there has been a cry of privatisation ever since I can remember, guess what, it has not been privatised. In fact, in every government since the inception (except one in the 70's) funding for the NHS has gone up in real terms.

Secondly, even if the UK Government were to privatise the NHS and the government saved money, this money would be spent in many different ways. i.e. overall spending would not change dramatically if at all.

Thirdly, no political party has a policy of taking the NHS out of free at the point of use. The NHS is such a political hot potato then no Government would dare put that into their manifesto. I think UKIP spoke about something but backtracked very quickly and it never got into their manifesto.

[Getintaethem]

At least the SNP have set up what they intend to do for the most part.

What will they do then?

Has the SNP got agreement to enter EFTA?
When will we be able to join EFTA after independence?
What currency will we use?
What plans does the SNP have if we are not allowed to join EFTA?
Does the SNP Government have formal agreement that we can join the EU?
How many years will there be between independence and joining the EU?
What plans does the SNP have if we are not allowed to join the EU?
Will they negotiate trade deals with every country that the UK will negotiate trade deals between independence and joining EFTA?
How does the SNP Government propose to meet fiscal entry requirement to either EFTA or the EU?
Which taxes will rise in order to reduce the deficit?
Which services will face cuts in order to reduce the deficit?

Edit to say i know Barney has a friend on here is he a friend of yours

http://committees.aberdeencity.gov.u...o.aspx?UID=133

I have met 2 councillors in my entire life and he is not one of them.

[Getintaethem]

on what basis do you make this assertion?

when did you come to this conclusion?

When the GERS figures were good, in the past, Salmond was out saying we were x years in surplus. That was based on GERS figures. So you would think they would like them as they also used them in their document around the economic case for independence in the last referendum.

Now the GERS figures are awful, they do not like them and say the figure is made up of some estimates.

Well, fact is loads of Government figures are based on estimates. GDP is based on some estimates to show if the country is growing or in recession. GDP is also internationally recognised even though it is based upon some estimates and no one credibly says that the GDP figures are significantly wrong. But that is what the SNP would have you believe around GERS.

Even if some of the estimates were out (very arguable) it still does not get around a £15bn deficit... not even close. And if the estimates are wrong, they could be wrong in the wrong direction for the SNP and our deficit could be even greater!