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Thread: Ot- May calls for election in June.

  1. #1
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    Ot- May calls for election in June.

    Snap General Election on June 8th has been called for by Theresa May. Obviously she has more faith in the Electorate than I do. They are more likely to vote her out. A plot by the Labour Establishment will oust Corbyn and SNP voters will revert to the Scottish Labour Party resulting in goodbye to Brexit which people are having second thoughts about anyway.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedBasie View Post
    goodbye to Brexit which people are having second thoughts about anyway.
    Really???!

    She probably thinks it should be done now as there is no opposition - Labour in disarray, Lib Dems reputation in tatters, UKIP job done, easy victory for her.

  3. #3
    This really will be a weird one, stressing party loyalties to the extreme. Her statement suggests that the Conservatives are completely pro Brexit whilst Labour, LibDems, SNP and the other house are pro Europe and obstructing the path to exit.

    The parliamentary parties thus do not reflect the position of the public - ie the voters. Many voters in labour strongholds voted for brexit; many conservatives voted to remain. Are we to see the traditional labour seats falling to the conservatives and vica versa; will margins of victory shift dramatically.

    More likely - will the libdems in the middle ground do very well or get annihilated.

    This will be the most bizarre election ever as the main issue under debate transcends party lines

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by roger_ramjet View Post
    This really will be a weird one, stressing party loyalties to the extreme. Her statement suggests that the Conservatives are completely pro Brexit whilst Labour, LibDems, SNP and the other house are pro Europe and obstructing the path to exit.

    The parliamentary parties thus do not reflect the position of the public - ie the voters. Many voters in labour strongholds voted for brexit; many conservatives voted to remain. Are we to see the traditional labour seats falling to the conservatives and vica versa; will margins of victory shift dramatically.

    More likely - will the libdems in the middle ground do very well or get annihilated.

    This will be the most bizarre election ever as the main issue under debate transcends party lines
    I've said as much on other threads, especially up in Scotland where the independence vote will have an affect, either for or against the snp.

    What it does mean though, is that the next general election will be 3 years after brexit, rather than 12 months. This will give the electorate a better idea of where to put their vote.

  5. #5
    Good political judgement or not Rog?
    If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
    With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
    Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Good political judgement or not Rog?
    If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
    With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
    Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?
    It has to be totally unpredictible but if I have to, then I would guess that the misdirection between party lines and Brexit lines would hurt Labour more as they are already in disarray and confusion, and this will confuddle their voters still more: will they vote for party against their own emotions? So on that basis May might be right in taking a calculated risk, but its a huge gamble if sentiment has shifted towards remain to any degree.

    UKIP will be a non factor to the Tory vote - but may impact the Labour vote who will not want to support a party now publically opposed to Brexit? Farage might be best off standing in Sunderland east, then for a fleeting moment he could be in the majority when he wins it!

    The SNP or Scottish Labour vote? Both will be prima facie pro Europe, so that may not impact anything. The Tories dont have any seats there to lose but a switch between SNP and Labour wont worry them in terms of overall majority. The Tories have an overall working majority of 17 so do they care?

    I suppose it will come down to how the politicians try to sell themselves - ie who lies the best! I cannot believe it will simply be a question of a one issue election and certainly it is in the interests of the opposition to muddy waters wherever they can: to use the constituency EU referendum numbers to tailor their pitches.

    eg my constituency (Reigate/Banstead) voted leave by 50.5% to 49.5% and has an almost 24,000 conservative majority over second place UKIP. Easy call you'd think, but they wont all work out like this: eg Middlesbrough 57% share of vote for Labour at last election, big majority; 65.5% voted for Brexit.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Good political judgement or not Rog?
    If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
    With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
    Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?
    I don't think she had any intention of having an election when she triggered article 50, but she realises that the brexit process will far easier for her, if she's got a decent majority in the commons. As it is, she can be held to ransom by a handful of Tory remainers. This should give her more authority and strength at the brexit negotiating table.

    It could backfire though, if the liberals champion the remain cause effectively, they could win a large number of votes from Tory and labour remainers, as a last ditch attempt to stop brexit.

  8. #8
    Well this is a turn up for the books! Either she is fed up with the "hard" Brexit people in her own party and wants to be free to negotiate a "sensible"Brexit or someone in the Tory party fears that Labour will oust Corbyn befoe 2020 and now is the time to have an election!

    So we await the Lib Dems to be the voice of reason? i can see them picking up seats in pro Brexit areas, but who really knows? This is going to be one strange election and could well end up with a hung parliament - either way it should see the end of Corbyn and Labour sorting itself out sooner than would have been the case

  9. #9
    1. Isn't a hung parliament likely to create even more chaos around Brexit? Seems like a serious gamble to me.
    2. Rog...isn't your new avatar likely to have you labelled as a bit of a 'dickhead' - incorrectly of course - or am I missing something?

  10. #10
    indeed so, but that character is the Roger Ramjet of cartoon fame

  11. #11
    The only issue is whether she's gonna get just under 400 seats or more

  12. #12
    I don't see the result as a foregone conclusion!! I think the Lib Dems will recover seats in the SW on their anti-brexit stance at the Tories expense whilst many other seats will revolve solely round brexit. This will cloudy the waters making polls less accurate. Yes, I can't see anything other than the Tories getting the most seats, not enough though to hold power leaving a hung parliament but allowing labour to form a coalition with the liberals and other parties. This will make Nicola a key player!!

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by macstheman View Post
    I don't see the result as a foregone conclusion!! I think the Lib Dems will recover seats in the SW on their anti-brexit stance at the Tories expense whilst many other seats will revolve solely round brexit. This will cloudy the waters making polls less accurate. Yes, I can't see anything other than the Tories getting the most seats, not enough though to hold power leaving a hung parliament but allowing labour to form a coalition with the liberals and other parties. This will make Nicola a key player!!
    I think you need to check up on some facts before threatening us with the poisonous Sturgeon. The SW actually voted to leave, therefore the Liberals old stronghold is less likely to go back to them.

    The strongest remain areas were Scotland and NI, where the Tories only have 1 seat to lose. In England, it is London which is mainly Labour. So the facts don't seem to bear you out, hopefully.

  14. #14
    Jeez mac...'make the polls less accurate'...they were wrong at the last election, wrong over Brexit and wrong over Trump. Any 'less accurate' and they'd have had to predict us to go up with Blackman as player of the year.
    Think you might have a point about another coalition though and it's not the best time for the Tory election expenses fiasco either.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Jeez mac...'make the polls less accurate'...they were wrong at the last election, wrong over Brexit and wrong over Trump. Any 'less accurate' and they'd have had to predict us to go up with Blackman as player of the year.
    Think you might have a point about another coalition though and it's not the best time for the Tory election expenses fiasco either.

    There seems to be an assumption that all those who voted leave last year are still in favour of brexit, it was a very small majority then and as the reality has hit home my view is that more of those who voted leave will have changed their minds and at the least will not favour the hard Brexit that the Tories seem to be pushing for. However, its clear that Corbyn will like last time be unclear about brexit, which gives the Lib dems a boost.

    Much as it pains e a vote for them is likely to be the best hope of avoiding a disastrous Brexit deal

  16. #16
    I pride myself on being a ****-stirrer so it is essential that I find a way to make Nicola the centre of attention. Let's face it anything is better than Dustbyn (sorry Jeremy) and no you 'May' not!! Of, course, we could fall back on Fallon(oh he's a comedian) or Farron or whatever that other one's called!! So, my scenario will unfold of that you can be assured and the BBC can continue to bask in never ending juicy stories to bore us to death with as Nicola becomes PM!!

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    There seems to be an assumption that all those who voted leave last year are still in favour of brexit, it was a very small majority then and as the reality has hit home my view is that more of those who voted leave will have changed their minds and at the least will not favour the hard Brexit that the Tories seem to be pushing for. However, its clear that Corbyn will like last time be unclear about brexit, which gives the Lib dems a boost.

    Much as it pains e a vote for them is likely to be the best hope of avoiding a disastrous Brexit deal
    After your lecture to me on this subject a few months ago this gave me such a laugh.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post
    There seems to be an assumption that all those who voted leave last year are still in favour of brexit, it was a very small majority then and as the reality has hit home my view is that more of those who voted leave will have changed their minds and at the least will not favour the hard Brexit that the Tories seem to be pushing for. However, its clear that Corbyn will like last time be unclear about brexit, which gives the Lib dems a boost.

    Much as it pains e a vote for them is likely to be the best hope of avoiding a disastrous Brexit deal
    The best hope for a good brexit deal is that our representatives from a position of strength. This can only be achieved by the country firmly backing our negotiators.

    May doesn't want a hard brexit, nobody does, but she prefers a hard brexit to a weak brexit, which is what we would end up with if the liberals were negotiating. If the eu think that our negotiators don't have the full backing of the country behind them, they will be encouraged to play hard ball.

    In a perfect world we would like to have our cake and eat it, maybe we can have our cake and nibble at it.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Ram59 View Post
    The best hope for a good brexit deal is that our representatives from a position of strength. This can only be achieved by the country firmly backing our negotiators.

    May doesn't want a hard brexit, nobody does, but she prefers a hard brexit to a weak brexit, which is what we would end up with if the liberals were negotiating. If the eu think that our negotiators don't have the full backing of the country behind them, they will be encouraged to play hard ball.

    In a perfect world we would like to have our cake and eat it, maybe we can have our cake and nibble at it.
    But without trying to make a pro/anti Brexit or party political point (I remain anti Brexit and will be voting Lib Dem but that's irrelevant)...you aren't going to get the 'country firmly backing our negotiators' Ram59.
    In a single issue In/Out vote last June and even with the 'protest' element, only slightly over one third of the electorate backed Brexit.
    A year on, at what is likely to be the most confusing and complex election I can remember, I can't see how this is going to lead to the 'country firmly backing our negotiators'.
    It will be fascinating to see how solidly Labour but pro Brexit areas actually vote but, imo, May is just repeating Cameron's mistake and putting the unity of the Tory Party before the well being of the country.

  20. #20
    ...and another thing (sorry!). Why is May so opposed to public debate? Apparently she sees door knocking in Maidenhead as preferable to debating with such political heavyweights as Corbyn, Farron or Nuttall...I bet she does...absolutely pathetic imo. Perhaps June will, as ever, herald the end of May.

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