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Thread: Seat Predictions Next Parliament

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
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    8,359

    Seat Predictions Next Parliament

    Let's have a stab at this.
    In the past Parliament the distribution was as follows:

    Conservative. 330
    Labour. 229
    SNP. 54
    Lib Dems. 9
    DUP. 8
    Sinn Fein. 4
    Others. 15
    Vacant. 1

    Total 650 Seats

    My prediction:

    Tory. 396
    Labour. 170
    SNP. 52
    Lib Dems. 16
    Sinn Fein. 3
    Plaid Cymru. 4
    Ulster. Parties. 5
    Green. 2
    Speaker. 1
    Indp. 1

    Total 650.

    Of course things can change. I might change the estimates by June 7th.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    OK, how much money is on this then?

    Conservative. 370
    Labour. 194
    SNP. 49
    Lib Dems. 15
    Plaid Cymru. 4
    Green. 0
    UKIP. 0
    DUP. 9
    Sinn Fein. 4
    SDLP. 3
    UUP. 2
    Vacant. 0

    Total 650 Seats


    I can guarantee that you will be wrong Romanus, since there are 18 Northern Irish seats and you've only allocated 9 to them
    Last edited by roger_ramjet; 05-05-2017 at 02:39 PM.

  3. #3
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    Yup I sure forgot that. Will need to rethink the numbers. But yours also contains an omission. 1 seat is Speaker

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanis View Post
    Yup I sure forgot that. Will need to rethink the numbers. But yours also contains an omission. 1 seat is Speaker
    But the speaker is only nominated from amongst the 650 once they are voted in, isnt it?

  5. #5
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    If the Smurf is seeking re-election then no.
    Convention dictates the major parties don't oppose him.
    If he isn't on ballot then the seat becomes open to all.

    I didn't check, just assumed he's running again

  6. #6
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by roger_ramjet View Post
    But the speaker is only nominated from amongst the 650 once they are voted in, isnt it?
    No, the speaker's seat isn't contested by the other 2 major parties, so it's always a shoe in.

  7. #7
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    Aug 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanis View Post
    Let's have a stab at this.
    In the past Parliament the distribution was as follows:

    Conservative. 330
    Labour. 229
    SNP. 54
    Lib Dems. 9
    DUP. 8
    Sinn Fein. 4
    Others. 15
    Vacant. 1

    Total 650 Seats

    My prediction:

    Tory. 396
    Labour. 170
    SNP. 52
    Lib Dems. 16
    Sinn Fein. 3
    Plaid Cymru. 4
    Ulster. Parties. 5
    Green. 2
    Speaker. 1
    Indp. 1

    Total 650.

    Of course things can change. I might change the estimates by June 7th.
    I think a change is needed now as we enter the final furlong.

    Tory 372
    Labour 206
    SNP 51
    LibDems 13
    Sinn Fein 3
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Greens 1
    Speaker 1
    No indp

    Total 650

  8. #8
    Tory 330
    Labour 260
    SNP 50
    LibDems 10
    Others 10

    Total 650

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingCharlieGeorge View Post
    Tory 330
    Labour 260
    SNP 50
    LibDems 10
    Others 10

    Total 650
    That's 10 extra seats. So Labour 250 not 260 then

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanis View Post
    I think a change is needed now as we enter the final furlong.

    Tory 372
    Labour 206
    SNP 51
    LibDems 13
    Sinn Fein 3
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Greens 1
    Speaker 1
    No indp

    Total 650
    Final prediction

    Conservative 348
    Labour 214
    SNP 49
    Lib Dems 15
    Other parties including N. I, Wales 21
    Speaker 1
    Greens 1

    Total 650

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