Ot- May calls for election in June.

[RedBasie]

Snap General Election on June 8th has been called for by Theresa May. Obviously she has more faith in the Electorate than I do. They are more likely to vote her out. A plot by the Labour Establishment will oust Corbyn and SNP voters will revert to the Scottish Labour Party resulting in goodbye to Brexit which people are having second thoughts about anyway.

[AdiSalisbury]

goodbye to Brexit which people are having second thoughts about anyway.

Really???!

She probably thinks it should be done now as there is no opposition - Labour in disarray, Lib Dems reputation in tatters, UKIP job done, easy victory for her.

[roger_ramjet]

This really will be a weird one, stressing party loyalties to the extreme. Her statement suggests that the Conservatives are completely pro Brexit whilst Labour, LibDems, SNP and the other house are pro Europe and obstructing the path to exit.

The parliamentary parties thus do not reflect the position of the public - ie the voters. Many voters in labour strongholds voted for brexit; many conservatives voted to remain. Are we to see the traditional labour seats falling to the conservatives and vica versa; will margins of victory shift dramatically.

More likely - will the libdems in the middle ground do very well or get annihilated.

This will be the most bizarre election ever as the main issue under debate transcends party lines

[Ram59]

This really will be a weird one, stressing party loyalties to the extreme. Her statement suggests that the Conservatives are completely pro Brexit whilst Labour, LibDems, SNP and the other house are pro Europe and obstructing the path to exit.

The parliamentary parties thus do not reflect the position of the public - ie the voters. Many voters in labour strongholds voted for brexit; many conservatives voted to remain. Are we to see the traditional labour seats falling to the conservatives and vica versa; will margins of victory shift dramatically.

More likely - will the libdems in the middle ground do very well or get annihilated.

This will be the most bizarre election ever as the main issue under debate transcends party lines

I've said as much on other threads, especially up in Scotland where the independence vote will have an affect, either for or against the snp.

What it does mean though, is that the next general election will be 3 years after brexit, rather than 12 months. This will give the electorate a better idea of where to put their vote.

[ramAnag]

Good political judgement or not Rog?
If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?

[roger_ramjet]

Good political judgement or not Rog?
If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?

It has to be totally unpredictible but if I have to, then I would guess that the misdirection between party lines and Brexit lines would hurt Labour more as they are already in disarray and confusion, and this will confuddle their voters still more: will they vote for party against their own emotions? So on that basis May might be right in taking a calculated risk, but its a huge gamble if sentiment has shifted towards remain to any degree.

UKIP will be a non factor to the Tory vote - but may impact the Labour vote who will not want to support a party now publically opposed to Brexit? Farage might be best off standing in Sunderland east, then for a fleeting moment he could be in the majority when he wins it!

The SNP or Scottish Labour vote? Both will be prima facie pro Europe, so that may not impact anything. The Tories dont have any seats there to lose but a switch between SNP and Labour wont worry them in terms of overall majority. The Tories have an overall working majority of 17 so do they care?

I suppose it will come down to how the politicians try to sell themselves - ie who lies the best! I cannot believe it will simply be a question of a one issue election and certainly it is in the interests of the opposition to muddy waters wherever they can: to use the constituency EU referendum numbers to tailor their pitches.

eg my constituency (Reigate/Banstead) voted leave by 50.5% to 49.5% and has an almost 24,000 conservative majority over second place UKIP. Easy call you'd think, but they wont all work out like this: eg Middlesbrough 57% share of vote for Labour at last election, big majority; 65.5% voted for Brexit.

[Ram59]

Good political judgement or not Rog?
If it goes the same way as Cameron calling for a referendum her term of office could be one of the shortest ever.
With Labour currently in disarray I see failure in June as seeing the end of Corbyn and hopefully UKIP will be seen off as well. Imagine the opportunist Farage will stand - yet again - somewhere, probably in the South East or Lincolnshire.
Either way we face another spring - third in a row - when politicians stop doing their jobs in order to concentrate on winning votes but how sensible/reasonable/fair was it to trigger Article 50 just a month before calling an election?

I don't think she had any intention of having an election when she triggered article 50, but she realises that the brexit process will far easier for her, if she's got a decent majority in the commons. As it is, she can be held to ransom by a handful of Tory remainers. This should give her more authority and strength at the brexit negotiating table.

It could backfire though, if the liberals champion the remain cause effectively, they could win a large number of votes from Tory and labour remainers, as a last ditch attempt to stop brexit.

[swaledale]

Well this is a turn up for the books! Either she is fed up with the "hard" Brexit people in her own party and wants to be free to negotiate a "sensible"Brexit or someone in the Tory party fears that Labour will oust Corbyn befoe 2020 and now is the time to have an election!

So we await the Lib Dems to be the voice of reason? i can see them picking up seats in pro Brexit areas, but who really knows? This is going to be one strange election and could well end up with a hung parliament - either way it should see the end of Corbyn and Labour sorting itself out sooner than would have been the case

[ramAnag]

1. Isn't a hung parliament likely to create even more chaos around Brexit? Seems like a serious gamble to me.
2. Rog...isn't your new avatar likely to have you labelled as a bit of a 'dickhead' - incorrectly of course - or am I missing something?

[roger_ramjet]

indeed so, but that character is the Roger Ramjet of cartoon fame