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All the different markets are related and deeply intertwined, if one crashes they all will as in 2008. It's had to know where it will all begin.Originally Posted by gm_gm
America did a lot to clean up its act in the banking sector, Europe on the other hand seems to have done very little.
A rise in visitor numbers to Butlins, while a positive effect of Brexit, it not going to stop the system crashing down.
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So, the housing market will crash, despite there being a housing shortage, but the ******* will skyrocket, despite it being an imaginary construct? Interesting analysis. Do you want a job?
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Did house prices crash in 2008?
When there is a bubble it doesn't matter how much demand there is.
You can have a massive shortage of supply of something and still get a bubble. In fact, hysteria from a lack of supply causing price increases can actually trigger a bubble and extreme buying behaviour. Fear of missing out etc.
******* is no more imaginary than millersmad... something people have actively used for years.
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I would recommend the film 'The Big Short' which explains the last crash very well and it's a great film in its own right.
A brilliant footnote at the end which will certainly make you think.
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Still dont think you have understood John, your confidence is admirable but without clear knowledge and understanding it could end in tears.
Be careful, I remember you saying you were going to sell your house to put on *******, I've met many part-time experts who have perused similar dreams but I dont know any who have survived it
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House prices corrected in most areas in 2008 but quickly recovered. Why? Because irrrespective of anything else, there is a tangible underlying value. People need somewhere to live, and there's a shortage. Your *******s have no such tangible value and will never recover from any significant downturn in my view, because there is no underlying support. Millersmad has more tangible value in that it's visible, used by many and provides entertainment. However, it's not really relevant because I don't have a penny invested in it, let alone something sgnificant.
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Quickly!? On average they returned to 2008 levels by 2014, but even that was with the average being propped up by London.
Look, I get it, people who own houses are scared of the idea of their houses losing value. I share that fear, I own a house with a friend and he doesn't want to sell and is more confident about the market than me so if it crashes I'll get hurt too.
Allowing emotion to drive investment decisions rather than objectivivity is something the majority of us humans do, myself included.
I wouldn't recommend putting everything into ******* at all, and if I sold the house would probably use about 50% of the equity for this purpose.
If I had sold my house when I said I was thinking about it 6 months ago I would have seen a 100% gain so far on anything I put into *******. I'd have been quite unworried had I seen the ******* price fall fall though, as I understand the technology well enough that I am satisfied with the risk/reward ratio and see it as an investment long term. I held it from $1200 all the way to $200 and was never concerned... I was right as it recovered. It's probably going to bubble and then crash again, all markets are vulnerable to it.
Guess what, those bank notes in your pocket have no tangible value, nor do the digits stored in a database representing your bank balance. Ask the people of Zimbabwe how tangible government issued money is. We saw huge inflation in the 80s, its brave to think it can't happen again.
******* is more tangible than 'regular' money. It has scarcity and limited supply, that gives it properties like a form of digital gold. Its better than gold in the sense its perfectly divisible and transportable, more secure, free to store with a perfectly controlled supply. 100 years from now we may be creating synthetic gold or have mastered mining it in abundance from other planets/asteroids for all we know.
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^^^ You make some interesting points. However when given the choice between mediums of exchange and stores of value that have a track record dating back hundreds of years, and one that some computer nerds came up with about 6 years ago, I know where I feel most secure.
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I totally understand the trust you have from currency's history, though history is littered with examples of currencies that have lost all their value.
In fact, learning objectively from history, the life expectancy of a currency is very poor. Currencies fail all the time.
I'd be amazed, if I make it to old age, that the Pound, Euro and Dollar would all still be around.
Every other area has been completely revolutionised by technology. You'd have felt pretty good holding shares in Kodak not too long ago. It's very optimistic to think we technology can do something better than the traditional way, that we'd persist doing it the inefficient old fashioned way. Technology will always triumph.
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