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Thread: League Cup Qualification permutations for Queens today

  1. #1

    League Cup Qualification permutations for Queens today

    Interesting looking at the possibilities today, despite the consensus by many that a win probably won't be enough:

    First off we need to win in 90 mins to have any chance. That would give us 8 points. A penalty win won't be enough as looking at the tables, no team anywhere is going to qualify with 7 points given that only the top 4 second placed teams go through. Nine points will guarantee qualification in any of the groups.

    If we win by say one goal, we will have 8 points and goal difference plus 3. If Hamilton lose outright or in a penalty shootout we would top the group and qualify. We would also finish above Accies if we win by 2 goals or more and they draw regardless of the outcome of penalty their shootout.

    If we finish second we need to better four of the other second placed teams elsewhere:

    Group A - Falkirk are already through. Stirling currently in second only have 7 points.CALEY will overtake them if they win in Brechin. An outright win would match us on 8 points, but we currently have a better goal difference by one. We therefore need to win and match their gaol difference on the day to finish above them. Realistic possibility there.


    Group B - Possibly most interesting of all groups. A draw for Dunfermline at Tynecastle will take through as group winners regardless of penalty shootout. If they finish second on 8 points they have a vastly superior goal difference (currently +10) Peterhead are guaranteed second if they win at Elgin. An outright win would give them 9 points so we need them not to win (goal difference -3 if they win penalty shootout and finish on 8 points). Hearts would finish on 9 points and top the group with a win. A penalty shootout win would give them 8 points (current goal difference +3). Wins outright or in a penalty shootout for DUNFERMLINE and ELGIN would do us just nicely. Possibilities there.


    Group C - Dundee Unt and Dundee play tomorrow and are scrapping for top place. Both already have 9 points so will qualify, and are completely out of our zone. No possibilities for us there.


    Group D - Ross County already have 8 points and will finish in the top two. They have a superior goal difference (+8) so their game at Arbroath is immaterial to us, though they need a point to make sure of qualifying. Hibs are on 7 points and are at Alloa. If they lose and we win we would finish above them. However with a goal difference of +9 they would be above us if they get a draw (regardless of penalty shootout). However this is ALLOA we are talking about so anything is possible. Mild chance there.


    Group E - Ayr have already qualified on 9 points, so their game at Annan is immaterial to us. KILLIE v DUMBARTON is the key game. Killie are currently on 6 points and goal difference (+3). If they win they would be above us. A penalty shootout win for them and one goal victory for us and we would match them. Defeat or lose on penalties for Killie and we would be above them. Reasonable possibility there, as Dumbarton are a bit like Alloa. capable of winning when you don't expect them to.

    Group F - Motherwell have already qualified, so MORTON are the key. Queens Park are currently second but have completed their fixtures on 7 points. Morton will have 8 points if they defeat Edinburgh City. However with a goal difference of (-3) they would need 6 goals to match us if we beat Albion Rovs by one goal. Definite possibility for us there.

    Group G - Thats us - (covered above)


    Group H - Livi have already qualified (11 points). Partick (7 points) will join them if they beat Stranraer at Firhill, and with goal difference of (+6) would probably finish above us even if they only got one point and finished on 8. Therefore we need STRANRAER to beat them.


    Assuming that Accies and us both get the results we need, and we finish second on 8 points, only Group C is definitely beyond us at this stage. Realistically Group H probably is as well as can't see Stranraer winning at Firhill. The others are all up in the air, and I think that it is reasonable to think that we could finish above the second place teams in Group A and Group F.

    Of the others Group B is completely up in the air where anything could happen, and there are possibilities for us in relation to Groups D and E.

    Therefore if we win today we need to look out and hope for four results or more to go our way of the following:

    Arbroath v Caley (Caley not to win by more goals than us)

    Dunfermline to beat Hearts outright or on pens, and Peterhead not to win at Elgin.

    Hibs to lose at Alloa

    Killie to fail to beat Dumbarton outright.

    Morton to fail to beat Edinburgh City by a barrowload.

    Stranraer to win at Firhill.


    I reckon we still have roughly a 40/60 chance at this stage. C'mon the Queens.
    Last edited by sturie67; 29-07-2017 at 11:27 AM.

  2. #2
    Brilliant post about all the permutations but I fear we haven't got a 40% chance( more like 20%) . Let's just win and see what happens.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by JRSLEFTPEG View Post
    Brilliant post about all the permutations but I fear we haven't got a 40% chance( more like 20%) . Let's just win and see what happens.
    A long hard season beckons unless some new players are recruited - I shudder to think what the Arabs, Falkirk etc will do to us unless new players are forthcoming. Gary in your heart do you really believe that Mercer, Dykes and others are Championship - class players ?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by sturie67 View Post
    Interesting looking at the possibilities today, despite the consensus by many that a win probably won't be enough:

    First off we need to win in 90 mins to have any chance. That would give us 8 points. A penalty win won't be enough as looking at the tables, no team anywhere is going to qualify with 7 points given that only the top 4 second placed teams go through. Nine points will guarantee qualification in any of the groups.

    If we win by say one goal, we will have 8 points and goal difference plus 3. If Hamilton lose outright or in a penalty shootout we would top the group and qualify. We would also finish above Accies if we win by 2 goals or more and they draw regardless of the outcome of penalty their shootout.

    If we finish second we need to better four of the other second placed teams elsewhere:

    Group A - Falkirk are already through. Stirling currently in second only have 7 points.CALEY will overtake them if they win in Brechin. An outright win would match us on 8 points, but we currently have a better goal difference by one. We therefore need to win and match their gaol difference on the day to finish above them. Realistic possibility there.


    Group B - Possibly most interesting of all groups. A draw for Dunfermline at Tynecastle will take through as group winners regardless of penalty shootout. If they finish second on 8 points they have a vastly superior goal difference (currently +10) Peterhead are guaranteed second if they win at Elgin. An outright win would give them 9 points so we need them not to win (goal difference -3 if they win penalty shootout and finish on 8 points). Hearts would finish on 9 points and top the group with a win. A penalty shootout win would give them 8 points (current goal difference +3). Wins outright or in a penalty shootout for DUNFERMLINE and ELGIN would do us just nicely. Possibilities there.


    Group C - Dundee Unt and Dundee play tomorrow and are scrapping for top place. Both already have 9 points so will qualify, and are completely out of our zone. No possibilities for us there.


    Group D - Ross County already have 8 points and will finish in the top two. They have a superior goal difference (+8) so their game at Arbroath is immaterial to us, though they need a point to make sure of qualifying. Hibs are on 7 points and are at Alloa. If they lose and we win we would finish above them. However with a goal difference of +9 they would be above us if they get a draw (regardless of penalty shootout). However this is ALLOA we are talking about so anything is possible. Mild chance there.


    Group E - Ayr have already qualified on 9 points, so their game at Annan is immaterial to us. KILLIE v DUMBARTON is the key game. Killie are currently on 6 points and goal difference (+3). If they win they would be above us. A penalty shootout win for them and one goal victory for us and we would match them. Defeat or lose on penalties for Killie and we would be above them. Reasonable possibility there, as Dumbarton are a bit like Alloa. capable of winning when you don't expect them to.

    Group F - Motherwell have already qualified, so MORTON are the key. Queens Park are currently second but have completed their fixtures on 7 points. Morton will have 8 points if they defeat Edinburgh City. However with a goal difference of (-3) they would need 6 goals to match us if we beat Albion Rovs by one goal. Definite possibility for us there.

    Group G - Thats us - (covered above)


    Group H - Livi have already qualified (11 points). Partick (7 points) will join them if they beat Stranraer at Firhill, and with goal difference of (+6) would probably finish above us even if they only got one point and finished on 8. Therefore we need STRANRAER to beat them.


    Assuming that Accies and us both get the results we need, and we finish second on 8 points, only Group C is definitely beyond us at this stage. Realistically Group H probably is as well as can't see Stranraer winning at Firhill. The others are all up in the air, and I think that it is reasonable to think that we could finish above the second place teams in Group A and Group F.

    Of the others Group B is completely up in the air where anything could happen, and there are possibilities for us in relation to Groups D and E.

    Therefore if we win today we need to look out and hope for four results or more to go our way of the following:

    Arbroath v Caley (Caley not to win by more goals than us)

    Dunfermline to beat Hearts outright or on pens, and Peterhead not to win at Elgin.

    Hibs to lose at Alloa

    Killie to fail to beat Dumbarton outright.

    Morton to fail to beat Edinburgh City by a barrowload.

    Stranraer to win at Firhill.


    I reckon we still have roughly a 40/60 chance at this stage. C'mon the Queens.
    So we could have won 10-0 today and still wouldn't have gone through? Funny old game.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Ftivano1 View Post
    A long hard season beckons unless some new players are recruited - I shudder to think what the Arabs, Falkirk etc will do to us unless new players are forthcoming. Gary in your heart do you really believe that Mercer, Dykes and others are Championship - class players ?


    Mercer & Dykes wouldn't get a game for Lochar Thistle . Harsh but true
    Time for Lyndon to hunt out the surfboard

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by arrol1919 View Post
    Mercer & Dykes wouldn't get a game for Lochar Thistle . Harsh but true
    A statement that isn`t harsh but true but is in fact sh1te.
    They aren`t great but let`s keep it real.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Dobmeister View Post
    A statement that isn`t harsh but true but is in fact sh1te.
    They aren`t great but let`s keep it real.
    Sunday Post story today that Naysmith in discussions with the QOS board about adding 3 others to the squad as he has only 13 experienced outfield players at his disposal !

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ftivano1 View Post
    Sunday Post story today that Naysmith in discussions with the QOS board about adding 3 others to the squad as he has only 13 experienced outfield players at his disposal !
    The coat peg is beginning to get distinctly shugglier for Naysmith with each game. Last season he had the buffer that it was not his squad of players but he has had a full pre-season to change the personnel and impose his playing style onto the team with no clear improvements having been made up till now. The clock is beginning to tick as far as the supporters are concerned and improvements in the teams fortunes will need to be forthcoming shortly and if the additional recruits can bring this about then the peg may be more firmly secured and we will all be much happier. Football fans are notoriously fickle and extremely impatient!!!!

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ftivano1 View Post
    Sunday Post story today that Naysmith in discussions with the QOS board about adding 3 others to the squad as he has only 13 experienced outfield players at his disposal !
    Will be interesting to see if he gets the backing. Did anyone notice in the second half yesterday, when Lyle was pointing to Dykes to get out wide to cover and he just stood there.

  10. #10
    Having watched the game yesterday I fear we are heading for relegation this year. Out of what I seen there was only 4, possibly 5 players who I thought were good enough to compete in the championship, with only dobie being the one player who could walk into any other side in the championship. The other 3 being the new keeper who looks the part, Fordyce who I think may prove to be a good signing and Marshall with tapping being the last one if he keeps fit. As for the rest, I have major worries. I would love to add Lyle but imo age may be catching him now. Nothing impressed me about the side yesterday and for some of the players seeming to be happy with a draw against albion rovers makes me worry that standards are slipping. Had to laugh on the os saying we remained unbeaten but still didn't qualify. Talk about putting a spin on things. We should be slaughtering teams like stenny, albion and East Kilbride if we have any ambition. But that's the point I make here. It looks to me that at this moment there appears to be no ambition from the board down to the players and if the manager thinks this squad is talented enough then his days will be numbered.

  11. #11
    That brings me onto the manager. How he can continue to select dykes and mercer god only knows. Mercer's performance yesterday was poor and his former has been poor since the st mirren game last season but I can see him trying and making some effort, however dykes is not showing effort and offers nothing. This is frustrating because imo the lad does have a bit of ability but that's nothing if your not willing to work and he's not been willing to do that since Xmas if not before. The thing that annoys me is that he appears through his body language and attitude to genuinely not care what happens and yet he is selected week in week out.
    We have let far more talented players go during the summer than some that we have kept with hilson and dykes being a prime example. Yet dykes continues to go about his business in the same manner when he should be working his ass off for the man who decided to show faith in him. Rant over

  12. #12
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    Lyle had a decent header that could well have found the net, if not for a good save from the Albion keeper and he was working well enough throughout. I would rather have kept Hilson than Dykes. I would start Rooney ahead of Mercer and I can see Rankin not starting again next weekend and I would have Murray starting.

  13. #13
    If the club are not going to back the manager and give him the funds for players then they need to get rid of him not this messing about hanging managers out to dry! Act NOW if you want any fans !!!!

  14. #14
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    Well if Queens had won Group G they would be at home to Aberdeen.

  15. #15
    It's early days yet those doing well have got plenty of time to be useless.
    Remember last season

  16. #16
    Disappointing as it was not to qualify, it wouldn't have made any difference what so ever if we'd won by a barrowload last week (and as poor Peterhead will testify to, even 9 points didn't guarantee qualification) . Much as I think its good to get a good cup run in any competition, and it would have been good to be in the last 16, it's not the be all and end all. I can't say too much as due to holiday etc only seen the Albion Rovers game, but heard we weren't too good in any of the games! Not at all impressive last week, and agree possibly a long season ahead! That having been said, The League Cup group format is a whole lot more exciting than the usual meaningless friendlies we usually had at the very same time before last year. In fact I seem to remember us beating a strong Motherwell side 4-0 in a very convincing win pre-season before the last time we ended up being relegated, so at this point in time a bit early to read to much into anything. Poorly attended as the league cup section games generally are they are far far better than any friendly at any time. Real season starts tomorrow though!

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