Interesting looking at the possibilities today, despite the consensus by many that a win probably won't be enough:
First off we need to win in 90 mins to have any chance. That would give us 8 points. A penalty win won't be enough as looking at the tables, no team anywhere is going to qualify with 7 points given that only the top 4 second placed teams go through. Nine points will guarantee qualification in any of the groups.
If we win by say one goal, we will have 8 points and goal difference plus 3. If Hamilton lose outright or in a penalty shootout we would top the group and qualify. We would also finish above Accies if we win by 2 goals or more and they draw regardless of the outcome of penalty their shootout.
If we finish second we need to better four of the other second placed teams elsewhere:
Group A - Falkirk are already through. Stirling currently in second only have 7 points.CALEY will overtake them if they win in Brechin. An outright win would match us on 8 points, but we currently have a better goal difference by one. We therefore need to win and match their gaol difference on the day to finish above them. Realistic possibility there.
Group B - Possibly most interesting of all groups. A draw for Dunfermline at Tynecastle will take through as group winners regardless of penalty shootout. If they finish second on 8 points they have a vastly superior goal difference (currently +10) Peterhead are guaranteed second if they win at Elgin. An outright win would give them 9 points so we need them not to win (goal difference -3 if they win penalty shootout and finish on 8 points). Hearts would finish on 9 points and top the group with a win. A penalty shootout win would give them 8 points (current goal difference +3). Wins outright or in a penalty shootout for DUNFERMLINE and ELGIN would do us just nicely. Possibilities there.
Group C - Dundee Unt and Dundee play tomorrow and are scrapping for top place. Both already have 9 points so will qualify, and are completely out of our zone. No possibilities for us there.
Group D - Ross County already have 8 points and will finish in the top two. They have a superior goal difference (+8) so their game at Arbroath is immaterial to us, though they need a point to make sure of qualifying. Hibs are on 7 points and are at Alloa. If they lose and we win we would finish above them. However with a goal difference of +9 they would be above us if they get a draw (regardless of penalty shootout). However this is ALLOA we are talking about so anything is possible. Mild chance there.
Group E - Ayr have already qualified on 9 points, so their game at Annan is immaterial to us. KILLIE v DUMBARTON is the key game. Killie are currently on 6 points and goal difference (+3). If they win they would be above us. A penalty shootout win for them and one goal victory for us and we would match them. Defeat or lose on penalties for Killie and we would be above them. Reasonable possibility there, as Dumbarton are a bit like Alloa. capable of winning when you don't expect them to.
Group F - Motherwell have already qualified, so MORTON are the key. Queens Park are currently second but have completed their fixtures on 7 points. Morton will have 8 points if they defeat Edinburgh City. However with a goal difference of (-3) they would need 6 goals to match us if we beat Albion Rovs by one goal. Definite possibility for us there.
Group G - Thats us - (covered above)
Group H - Livi have already qualified (11 points). Partick (7 points) will join them if they beat Stranraer at Firhill, and with goal difference of (+6) would probably finish above us even if they only got one point and finished on 8. Therefore we need STRANRAER to beat them.
Assuming that Accies and us both get the results we need, and we finish second on 8 points, only Group C is definitely beyond us at this stage. Realistically Group H probably is as well as can't see Stranraer winning at Firhill. The others are all up in the air, and I think that it is reasonable to think that we could finish above the second place teams in Group A and Group F.
Of the others Group B is completely up in the air where anything could happen, and there are possibilities for us in relation to Groups D and E.
Therefore if we win today we need to look out and hope for four results or more to go our way of the following:
Arbroath v Caley (Caley not to win by more goals than us)
Dunfermline to beat Hearts outright or on pens, and Peterhead not to win at Elgin.
Hibs to lose at Alloa
Killie to fail to beat Dumbarton outright.
Morton to fail to beat Edinburgh City by a barrowload.
Stranraer to win at Firhill.
I reckon we still have roughly a 40/60 chance at this stage. C'mon the Queens.