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Thread: The results as they should have been using expected goals

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,001

    The results as they should have been using expected goals

    Not sure what to make of these but The Expected goals figures below show we should have lost 0-2.
    Did they expect Wood to miss??
    WBA should have beaten BHA 1-0
    Leicester should have beaten Chelsea


    Saturday
    5-0 Manchester City v Liverpool. 2.38 - 0.7
    3-0 Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth 2.25 -0.46
    3-1 Brighton v West Brom Albion 0.44-1.03
    0-3 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur 1.04-1.81
    1-2 Leicester City v Chelsea. 1.4-0.83
    0-2 Southampton v Watford. 0.3-0.72
    2-2 Stoke C v Manchester United 1.23-2.35

    Sunday
    1-0 Burnley v Crystal Palace 0.28- 1.98
    0-1 Swansea City. v Newcastle 1.2-1.11

    Monday
    West Ham Utd v Huddersfield

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    7,968
    This is based on the number of shots etc., however, it is worth comparing the percentage of shots on target which I have added

    Saturday
    5-0 Manchester City v Liverpool. 2.38 - 0.7 77% - 43%
    3-0 Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth 2.25 -0.46 53% - 16%
    3-1 Brighton v West Brom Albion 0.44-1.03 50% - 25%
    0-3 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur 1.04-1.81 8% - 40%
    1-2 Leicester City v Chelsea. 1.4-0.83 25% - 37%
    0-2 Southampton v Watford. 0.3-0.72 11% - 25%
    2-2 Stoke C v Manchester United 1.23-2.35 50% - 45%

    Sunday
    1-0 Burnley v Crystal Palace 0.28- 1.98 50% - 17%
    0-1 Swansea City. v Newcastle 1.2-1.11 40% - 50%

    All the results went according to shot accuracy except the Stoke v Man Utd match which only had a 5% difference between the teams and ended in a draw.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,001
    Supersub
    Seems like you invented a better indicator than EGs. Take the patent out?

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