Kevin Nolan completes.....

[upthemaggies]

With yesterday's game Nolan caught up with Moniz's final tally of 29 league games in charge. Next weekend he'll equal Kiwomya's 30.

Since Sam Allardyce, only two Notts managers have completed two season's worth of games (92 league games in charge), those being Dearden and McP and neither lasted more than one game longer. Allardyce remains as the last Notts boss to take charge of over 100 league games, Warnock is the only other centurion post Sirrel.

Since McP (sacked 8 years ago next month), only one manager has been in charge for 46 games or more, that being Shaun Derry as Curle fell one short, although Derry - despite being in charge for 68 games - didn't steer the club through an actual full season. It would be hugely disappointing if Nolan doesn't see out this campaign and become the first Notts manager to oversee a complete season since McP in 2008/09.

[SolSigns]

With yesterday's game Nolan caught up with Moniz's final tally of 29 league games in charge. Next weekend he'll equal Kiwomya's 30.

Since Sam Allardyce, only two Notts managers have completed two season's worth of games (92 league games in charge), those being Dearden and McP and neither lasted more than one game longer. Allardyce remains as the last Notts boss to take charge of over 100 league games, Warnock is the only other centurion post Sirrel.

Since McP (sacked 8 years ago next month), only one manager has been in charge for 46 games or more, that being Shaun Derry as Curle fell one short, although Derry - despite being in charge for 68 games - didn't steer the club through an actual full season. It would be hugely disappointing if Nolan doesn't see out this campaign and become the first Notts manager to oversee a complete season since McP in 2008/09.

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

[upthemaggies]

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

That must have been somebody else.
We were 5th after ten games last season, although it wasn't until game 14 that we had as many points as we do this season, so perhaps it would make more sense to look at how quickly we reached 19 points in recent seasons where we've looked like challenging for promotion in the early months of the campaign.

The game in which we reached or broke through 19 points & final position
2016/17 (Sheridan) - 14 games, finished 16th
2014/15 (Derry) - 12 games, finished 21st
2012/13 (Curle) - 12 games, finished 12th
2011/12 (Allen) - 10 games, finished 7th
2009/10 (Munto) - 10 games, finished 1st
2005/06 (Thordarsson) - 15 games, finished 21st

So going by those stats, we have much more in common with the Munto and Allen seasons.
We've reached 19 pts in almost half the time it took Sheridan and Thordarsson, so those two campaigns don't really compare. The Derry season may be a more obvious warning as to how things can turn for the worse, but that was of course the season in which Guy Branston was employed, the infamous transfer panel was introduced and Aileen Trew effectively took control.

[SolSigns]

That must have been somebody else.
We were 5th after ten games last season, although it wasn't until game 14 that we had as many points as we do this season, so perhaps it would make more sense to look at how quickly we reached 19 points in recent seasons where we've looked like challenging for promotion in the early months of the campaign.

The game in which we reached or broke through 19 points & final position
2016/17 (Sheridan) - 14 games, finished 16th
2014/15 (Derry) - 12 games, finished 21st
2012/13 (Curle) - 12 games, finished 12th
2011/12 (Allen) - 10 games, finished 7th
2009/10 (Munto) - 10 games, finished 1st
2005/06 (Thordarsson) - 15 games, finished 21st

So going by those stats, we have much more in common with the Munto and Allen seasons.
We've reached 19 pts in almost half the time it took Sheridan and Thordarsson, so those two campaigns don't really compare. The Derry season may be a more obvious warning as to how things can turn for the worse, but that was of course the season in which Guy Branston was employed, the infamous transfer panel was introduced and Aileen Trew effectively took control.

Right, and compared to 8 games by Nolan this season.

Also shows how good Martin Allen's start was.

I've always thought that after the new year game you have a fair indication of how teams are really doing, but someone posted some interesting figures on beginning v final positions. I've looked through too many old mad posts now for one day, and I can't find them. They seemed to show a pretty clear correlation between the top six club's position after (I think 10) games, and their final positions. I'd work it out myself if I could find the numbers for 'L2 table after 10 games over the last 10 years', but I couldn't quickly and need to face time the inlawyers right now

[MancMagpie]

Kevin Nolan has made a very promising start to his managerial career. We can't say any more than that at this stage, because he has yet to encounter some of the things managers have to deal with during the course of a long career (like a really bad run of losses), but he certainly seems to have taken a leaf out of Sam Allardyce's book in terms of playing effective football and getting the best out of your playing resources.

Yep. This. I reckon he's learnt loads from Big Sam. Can't be a bad thing....Big Sam is the only England manager with a 100% win ratio after all!

[irishpete]

Lets hope all he has learnt from him was on the pitch &, not off it.

[Frigiliana Pie 1]

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

I think what you're looking for is post 120 on the Match Thread for the Port Vale game.

[Old_pie]

I think what you're looking for is post 120 on the Match Thread for the Port Vale game.

What I think Frigiliana meant was to be helpful and post a link

http://boards.footymad.net/showthrea...8201200&page=6

[upthemaggies]

Last season Mansfield Town had 19 points after 15 games played (which was the last week of October) and they were just three points adrift of the play offs in 13th place. So it looks as though we have a very comfortable cushion, the players should be able to play without feeling as though they are under any pressure. A mere 7 points from the next 7 games (relegation form) would put us on 26 pts from 15 played, last season you would have been 4th after 15 games with 26 pts. So we ought to still be there or there abouts going into the xmas period which makes it easier to attract new recruits in January.
I think it does help to be 2nd rather than 1st at this stage as you've still got something to aim for rather than looking over your shoulder.

[SolSigns]

What I think Frigiliana meant was to be helpful and post a link

http://boards.footymad.net/showthrea...8201200&page=6

Thanks, both. All the stats are interesting at the end of that fred, but the set I thought was most unexpected was 60years:

In each of the last 4 seasons, 4 teams who were in the top 7 after 5 games finished in the top 7 at the end of the season.

Of those 16 teams over the 4 seasons, 8 won automatic promotion and 8 reached the play-offs

= the teams in the top 7 after 5 games are significantly more likely to be in the mix at the end of the season. I wish I knew how he got the figures for that, but I wonder if they also show that a team's position after 10 games is an even more reliable indicator.

Not cast iron obviously, and the Derry/Abbott season shows how an early high position can mask underlying flaws, but still. If I was a betting man, I'd think carefully about the early season positions. As it is, I feel even more confident about my prediction that Nolo's Notts will get second place this season! UPIES!