O/T Global Sea Ice - Global Warming

[maddogslater]

Advance apologies to you spell checkers,try not to lose any sleep over it.

[Old_pie]

....and the average temperature of the earth is now 16 degrees.....(ie up from below 15 degrees)

Quote :

The average temperature on Earth is about 61 degrees F (16 C). But temperatures vary greatly around the world depending on the time of year, ocean and wind currents and weather conditions. Summers tend to be warmer and winters colder. Also, temperatures tend to be higher near the equator and lower near the poles.

https://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html

Maybe I am not understanding what you are saying Old-Pie?

Degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit are artificial constructs and you are saying that 1 deg rise ie 10C to 11C is 10%. If you had taken the Kelvin scale where zero is absolute zero then 10C is 283K and 1 deg rise goes to 284K a rise of 0.35%. Quoting rise of temperature in % terms is flawed. If someone could calculate (they probably have tried*) the total world heat and see how that changed then quoting the % rise would be more meaningful.

* Quick google brings up https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=46 which is a bit scary though I'd like to see it over 500yrs. When I get a bit of time I'll look more closely at that site.

[tarquinbeech]

Degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit are artificial constructs and you are saying that 1 deg rise ie 10C to 11C is 10%. If you had taken the Kelvin scale where zero is absolute zero then 10C is 283K and 1 deg rise goes to 284K a rise of 0.35%. Quoting rise of temperature in % terms is flawed. If someone could calculate (they probably have tried*) the total world heat and see how that changed then quoting the % rise would be more meaningful.

* Quick google brings up https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=46 which is a bit scary though I'd like to see it over 500yrs. When I get a bit of time I'll look more closely at that site.

Interesting......you are not disputing the 1.5 degree rise, or the average temperature of the earth at 15 degrees C?.....but that 1.5 degrees C is NOT 10% of 15....I had never heard that argument.

If my temperature here is 30 degrees C, and it is only 15 degrees in Nottingaham ......then I cannot use the term "it is twice as hot here"? and you cannot say "it's only half as warm"?

If water freezes at 0 degrees C and boils at 100 C.......can I use the term "30% of the way towards boiling"?......I'm guessing not, because I haven't started the scale at -273 degrees C, which is where all molecular activity ceases?

[Old_pie]

Interesting......you are not disputing the 1.5 degree rise, or the average temperature of the earth at 15 degrees C?.....but that 1.5 degrees C is NOT 10% of 15....I had never heard that argument.

If my temperature here is 30 degrees C, and it is only 15 degrees in Nottingaham ......then I cannot use the term "it is twice as hot here"? and you cannot say "it's only half as warm"?

If water freezes at 0 degrees C and boils at 100 C.......can I use the term "30% of the way towards boiling"?......I'm guessing not, because I haven't started the scale at -273 degrees C, which is where all molecular activity ceases?

Yes you've got it. % can be used emotively - you know XXX company profits are up 100%, same statement applies if they've gone from 1p to 2p as if they'd gone from £1m to £2m. You can of course say 30% of the way from freezing to boiling (of water of course, not of some other substance). But otherwise stating % rise in temperature without more context is, if you think about it, a bit meaningless, might just as well state the actual rise. What do you do where the temperature went from -2C to 0C or +2C, how many % is that?

I'm not disagreeing with the temperature rise figure which I presume is a matter of fact though again I'd like to see figures over longer time spans.

[tarquinbeech]

Yes you've got it. % can be used emotively - you know XXX company profits are up 100%, same statement applies if they've gone from 1p to 2p as if they'd gone from £1m to £2m. You can of course say 30% of the way from freezing to boiling (of water of course, not of some other substance). But otherwise stating % rise in temperature without more context is, if you think about it, a bit meaningless, might just as well state the actual rise. What do you do where the temperature went from -2C to 0C or +2C, how many % is that?

I'm not disagreeing with the temperature rise figure which I presume is a matter of fact though again I'd like to see figures over longer time spans.

Thank you, interesting

If we had a scale of human "livability" of 0 degrees C (Siberia).......and 30 degrees C (Saudi), AVERAGES........... ie I don't think we could survive as a human race either in a frozen world or one permanently like a desert (50 in the day, 10 at night).....then our current World temps of 15 degrees C is almost perfect......how would I express the fact that a 1.5 degree increase is pretty serious?.....IMO, 2 degrees would be critical and 3 degrees would almost certainly wipe out huge areas of the population

[tarquinbeech]

Thank you, interesting

If we had a scale of human "livability" of 0 degrees C (Siberia).......and 30 degrees C (Saudi), AVERAGES........... ie I don't think we could survive as a human race either in a frozen world or one permanently like a desert (50 in the day, 10 at night).....then our current World temps of 15 degrees C is almost perfect......how would I express the fact that a 1.5 degree increase is pretty serious?.....IMO, 2 degrees would be critical and 3 degrees would almost certainly wipe out huge areas of the population

.....and according to this vid, 6 degrees would trigger the 6th great extinction (the 5th was the Permian, where 95% of life was wiped out)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21D3ByfPTx8

[tarquinbeech]

As the latest Hurricane, Nate, heads north through Mississippi......here is a summary of 2017 to date, taken from this morning's Climate Change forum

It's not just this year. The monster hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Jose and Lee that have raged across the Atlantic are contributing to what appears to be the most active period for major storms on record.
And the busiest part of hurricane season isn't even over.
An analysis of 167 years of federal storm data by The Associated Press found that no 30-year period in history has seen this many major hurricanes, this many days of those whoppers spinning in the Atlantic, or this much overall energy generated by those powerful storms.
But more intense storms are what scientists expect to see as the planet's climate changes because warmer ocean water is fuel for hurricanes. And they say it is important to better understand this current intense period to save lives and prevent worse future destruction.
Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb said it would be "foolish" for policymakers to ignore the data. "We may not have as much data as we would like, but we have enough to aggressively invest in a variety of defenses for coastal communities," she said in an email. "We face a triple threat of rising seas, stronger winds, and literally off-the-charts rainfall totals."
The Atlantic hurricane season was more intense than normal in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2016. The 2005 season, which included Katrina, Rita and Wilma, was so active forecasters ran out of names for storms.
Then came this year. Fueled by warmer than normal ocean temperatures and ideal wind conditions, September 2017 had more days with major hurricanes spinning and more overall hurricane energy expelled than any month on record, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Harvey spawned record rainfall. Irma had record high winds in the open Atlantic. And Maria hit the U.S. stronger than the earlier two.
The Associated Press looked at all major hurricanes — not just the small fraction that hit the U.S. — and grouped them into 30-year periods to mirror the 30-year cycles climate scientists use to understand how the climate is changing. The analysis found that in the period from 1988 to 2017:
— There have been 90 major hurricanes, an average of three a year. That's 48 percent more than during the previous 30 years.............. This hurricane season is at five and still counting.
— During the past 30 years major hurricanes have churned for an average of 7.2 days. That's 65 percent more than the average during the previous 30 years.................. There have been 18.8 major hurricane days so far this year.
— Scientists use a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, that factors in wind speed and storm duration to gauge hurricane power. The annual average ACE of the past 30 years is 41 percent more than in the previous 30 years. An average year ACE is just shy of 100 ..................and this year's ACE, with two months still to go, is 204.2.

[tarquinbeech]

I did one of these threads a couple of years ago, which interested a few people....so I thought I'd start another

FACT - The Earth is getting warmer, depending on the start point...by between 1 and 1.5 degrees Celsius, since the mid 1800s.....that's not a lot I hear you cry BUT the average temperature of the Earth is only about 15 degrees anyway.....so we are talking about a 10% increase since accurate records were kept.

FACT - The Earth is covered mostly by water, approximately 70%, which is one of the best means of storing and moving heat (think central heating, car radiators)....air and land heat up rapidly, but also cool rapidly.....water is where excess heat is "stored" until dissipated by violent storms (think, kettle boiling, tornadoes, hurricanes)

FACT - Sea Ice floats on the sea-water.......so an accurate way of measuring what this excess heat is doing, is to measure sea ice. Since 1979, Nasa, Japanese Jaxa and the Germans have all been measuring sea ice from space.....so we now have 38 years of specific data

FACT - Ice reflects the Sun's heat back into space....not all of it, but enough to keep the World "in balance"....if and when it reaches a "tipping point" ie less ice = more sunlight on open water = more heat = less ice, you get a runaway effect that cannot be halted unless you Geo-Engineer your way out (mirrors, Geo-stationary panels in space, pump sea-water onto Greenland/Antarctica....there are hundreds of ideas out there)

FACT - If you take 100 scientists, 97 say we have serious problems as a species....the other 3 back Trump and the Petro-Chemical Industry, Business-As-Usual...carry on, don't worry about it.

I check data every single day.....sad, I know

DATA...........3rd October 2017....Total Global Sea Ice issued by NASA

On this date....by Decade

1980s - 26.43 Million Sq Kms

1990s - 25.8

2000s - 24.88

2010 - 23.87

Today - 22.96

It does not take a mathematical genius to see that we have a SERIOUS problem....another 0.5 degrees of warming in sub-sahara will see another 5 million people on the move, most to Europe....continuing floods in Pakistan/Bangladesh will see another 20 million people displaced and guaranteed civil unrest...where can they go?

On a positive note, VW announced another 2 Electric Vehicles a few weeks ago.....every single major global manufacturer is now scrambling to build EVs....Petrol and Oil is finished....but have we left it too late?

It is now 1st Nov, the unofficial start to the Global Sea Ice melting season (the date is variable due to Arctic freezing and Antarctic melting and how quickly the Southern melting becomes stronger)

Between now and mid-Feb, the Earth will lose approximately 10 million sq km of sea-ice....wow

The start figure for 31st October.....by decade is:

1980s - 27.21 million sq km

1990s - 26.92 million (minus 290,000)

2000s - 26.47 million (minus 450,000)

2010s - 25.62 million (minus 850,000)

31st October 2017 - 25.06

The first satellite data was available in 1979....so after 38 years we now have clear evidence that Oceans and World temperatures are out of control.....of course, sea ice can never totally disappear because the poles have 6 months of darkness each year so "temporary" sea ice will always form in the winter months.

The interesting thing to watch for this melting season is, will the Larsen Ice shelves continue to break up this year....brief video explanation of why this is critical

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R2hlWAsbQ0

[sidders]

BEECHY SAYS:

The guy has an absolute right to deny anyone into his country (the most powerful in the World), that he feels protects his voters.....Muslims are a huge problem to World society, they murder, mutilate, stone to death, cut the clits off young girls, boil Christians alive...I say "Goodbye...**** off out of my country"....I support him

Once again, Beechy, the simple insertion of the word 'some' between 'voters' and 'Muslims' in your post would make this expression of opinion just about passable. As it stands, it is deceitful and incendiary.
Anyone with political integrity MUST oppose Trump. The evidence has been there from the start. Lying psychopaths who grab pussies shouldn't come near government.

[tarquinbeech]

BEECHY SAYS:

The guy has an absolute right to deny anyone into his country (the most powerful in the World), that he feels protects his voters.....Muslims are a huge problem to World society, they murder, mutilate, stone to death, cut the clits off young girls, boil Christians alive...I say "Goodbye...**** off out of my country"....I support him

Once again, Beechy, the simple insertion of the word 'some' between 'voters' and 'Muslims' in your post would make this expression of opinion just about passable. As it stands, it is deceitful and incendiary.
Anyone with political integrity MUST oppose Trump. The evidence has been there from the start. Lying psychopaths who grab pussies shouldn't come near government.

Only on MAD, can you turn a thread about Sea Ice/Climate Change/Global warming into a political thread Sid.....you're a genius.

OK, I'll play.......another 8 innocent people murdered by a Muslim nutter in New York last night...plus allegations yesterday of a senior Labour activist raping a co-worker, Bex Bailey......then being told by senior Labour figures to "keep quiet".