Form since the win at Exeter

[upthemaggies]

Exeter was our last away win, game 10, the climax of our best 10 game start in living memory before the shock defeat at Field Mill.

We've played 13 games since Exeter, picking up 19 points. That's an average of 1.46 points per game which over the course of a whole season would have seen a club finish about 9th/10th in the last couple of seasons. In other words, we've been a team not quite good enough for the play-offs since the last week of September. If this post-Exeter form continues for the remainder of the campaign, we'll pick up another 34 points giving us a total of 78, which should be enough to finish in the top 7 largely thanks to the magnificent start, but not the top 3.

So, short of a major collapse, we can look forward to being involved in a promotion push in some form or other until the final week of the season. Play-offs are a big part of our history, although we haven't been involved in them for 22 years next May and never at this level. Hopefully we can avoid them with automatic promotion but if we are involved then there's a good chance that we'd face either Mansfield or Lincoln, which would be quite something. Imagine playing Stags at Wembley!
Interesting times.

[sidders]

Exeter was our last away win, game 10, the climax of our best 10 game start in living memory before the shock defeat at Field Mill.

We've played 13 games since Exeter, picking up 19 points. That's an average of 1.46 points per game which over the course of a whole season would have seen a club finish about 9th/10th in the last couple of seasons. In other words, we've been a team not quite good enough for the play-offs since the last week of September. If this post-Exeter form continues for the remainder of the campaign, we'll pick up another 34 points giving us a total of 78, which should be enough to finish in the top 7 largely thanks to the magnificent start, but not the top 3.

So, short of a major collapse, we can look forward to being involved in a promotion push in some form or other until the final week of the season. Play-offs are a big part of our history, although we haven't been involved in them for 22 years next May and never at this level. Hopefully we can avoid them with automatic promotion but if we are involved then there's a good chance that we'd face either Mansfield or Lincoln, which would be quite something. Imagine playing Stags at Wembley!
Interesting times.

Good post, utm, and well researched

[irish_pie]

Exeter was our last away win, game 10, the climax of our best 10 game start in living memory before the shock defeat at Field Mill.

We've played 13 games since Exeter, picking up 19 points. That's an average of 1.46 points per game which over the course of a whole season would have seen a club finish about 9th/10th in the last couple of seasons. In other words, we've been a team not quite good enough for the play-offs since the last week of September. If this post-Exeter form continues for the remainder of the campaign, we'll pick up another 34 points giving us a total of 78, which should be enough to finish in the top 7 largely thanks to the magnificent start, but not the top 3.

So, short of a major collapse, we can look forward to being involved in a promotion push in some form or other until the final week of the season. Play-offs are a big part of our history, although we haven't been involved in them for 22 years next May and never at this level. Hopefully we can avoid them with automatic promotion but if we are involved then there's a good chance that we'd face either Mansfield or Lincoln, which would be quite something. Imagine playing Stags at Wembley!
Interesting times.

As Sid said well researched, lets beat Morcambe on Tuesday and get back on track

[slack_pie]

Interesting stuff, and confirms my view that we're not playing like a promotion-winning side.

After the loss at Field Mill I predicted we'd lose to Mansfield in the playoff semis, and I'm sticking with that.

Also, a friend of mine was offered a bet by his Mansfield colleague that they would finish above us. He was willing to bet any amount - and I can see why.

The second half of the season should be interesting as there are so many contenders for the top 7. Luton are clear favourites for the title, but after that about half the league could get automatic or playoffs - I've never seen such a tight league at this stage. I just hope we can hang on in there.

[LaxtonLad]

Exeter was our last away win, game 10, the climax of our best 10 game start in living memory before the shock defeat at Field Mill.

We've played 13 games since Exeter, picking up 19 points. That's an average of 1.46 points per game which over the course of a whole season would have seen a club finish about 9th/10th in the last couple of seasons. In other words, we've been a team not quite good enough for the play-offs since the last week of September. If this post-Exeter form continues for the remainder of the campaign, we'll pick up another 34 points giving us a total of 78, which should be enough to finish in the top 7 largely thanks to the magnificent start, but not the top 3.

So, short of a major collapse, we can look forward to being involved in a promotion push in some form or other until the final week of the season. Play-offs are a big part of our history, although we haven't been involved in them for 22 years next May and never at this level. Hopefully we can avoid them with automatic promotion but if we are involved then there's a good chance that we'd face either Mansfield or Lincoln, which would be quite something. Imagine playing Stags at Wembley!
Interesting times.

What you say may be correct, utm, but 88% of statisticians get 43% of their predictions wrong 38% of the time. In any case, two wins for us while other teams round us wobble (which they are doing) and we're back up among the safe bets for the second spot. Luton would seem to be odds on favs for champions and although we drew with them they keep taking points from our rivals, so, COME ON YOU HATTERS!

[i961pie]

Interesting stuff, and confirms my view that we're not playing like a promotion-winning side.

After the loss at Field Mill I predicted we'd lose to Mansfield in the playoff semis, and I'm sticking with that.

Also, a friend of mine was offered a bet by his Mansfield colleague that they would finish above us. He was willing to bet any amount - and I can see why.

The second half of the season should be interesting as there are so many contenders for the top 7. Luton are clear favourites for the title, but after that about half the league could get automatic or playoffs - I've never seen such a tight league at this stage. I just hope we can hang on in there.

A lot may depends on us making any signings in January and having Noble and possibly O'Connor available. If we get the right person/s in we should do automatic promotion. The teams chasing us have been far more inconsistent than we have, let's hope it continues.

[jacobncfc]

Depends on January for me - think we’re almost there but are quite clearly too reliant on Grant for creativity from midfield (hopefully Noble can help there) and need a striker who can chip in with more regular goals. If we can get that then I think we’ll go up.

Also worth saying that the gap to fourth (the important one) is exactly the same today as it was just after we beat Exeter, which suggests that everyone else (Luton aside) is suffering from many of the same problems.

[Frigiliana Pie 1]

The strange thing is that, despite the mediocre run of form, we’ve increased the distance between us and fourth place. Apart from Luton, nobody in this League stands out as strong promotion contenders at present. It’s just possible that the 78 points in UTM’s projection will be enough for automatic promotion this season.

But I agree with everyone else - we need another striker and cover in the centre of defence during the transfer window.

[upthemaggies]

It’s just possible that the 78 points in UTM’s projection will be enough for automatic promotion this season.

As we're at the half way stage of the season, you can simply double everybody's points to see what total we're all on course to end up with.

Coventry in 4th, by that logic, would finish with 76, but maybe in a typical season the top 3rd tend to pick up more points as the middle 3rd become less motivated (With little realistically to play for as we go into March) and the bottom teams settle for draws as every point becomes so precious. At the top, Play-off spots may be all-but secured with many games to spare and so those clubs go all-out for the top 3. That's just a theory though.

The Luton result is encouraging in terms of being able to handle an away Play-off leg, or the Wembley final, but then look what happened at Mansfield.
Stags are where they are because they had a dodgy start, their trajectory suggests they will be very much in the mix. I quite fancy Swindon to push their way in too. What's the situation at Coventry now? The ongoing stadium uncertainty might derail their best efforts.

[jacobncfc]

Mansfield’s ‘trajectory’ is exactly the same 19 points from 13 games that Notts have. Statistics eh?