Latest Elo Update predicts us to be champs

[SwalePie]

http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...y-to-pip-luton

[irishpete]

If we win the title great,but I will just be happy with promotion just to get out of this league.

[BigFatPie]

Dunno what info they use to work that out, but you’d probably be more accurate using your Aunty’s tea leaves.

[LaxtonLad]

Dunno what info they use to work that out, but you’d probably be more accurate using your Aunty’s tea leaves.

The Sky Sports predictor is based on a system called Elo, originally set up to rate chess players. It takes into account form, who your team still has left to play, and how well a team has done in previous seasons.

[frenchmagpie]

The Sky Sports predictor is based on a system called Elo, originally set up to rate chess players. It takes into account form, who your team still has left to play, and how well a team has done in previous seasons.

I think it was playing Mr Blue Sky when they plugged in the last stat !

[countygump]

I think it was playing Mr Blue Sky when they plugged in the last stat !

Certainly is a strange magic.

[BigFatPie]

The Sky Sports predictor is based on a system called Elo, originally set up to rate chess players. It takes into account form, who your team still has left to play, and how well a team has done in previous seasons.

Righto. Any data that currently says we have a 41% chance of winning the league while Luton have a 25% chance is the wrong data.

I wonder if the bloke who did this table wouid be happy to give you odds of 3/1 for Luton to win the league? Cos my house will go on it if he does.

[jacobncfc]

Righto. Any data that currently says we have a 41% chance of winning the league while Luton have a 25% chance is the wrong data.

I wonder if the bloke who did this table wouid be happy to give you odds of 3/1 for Luton to win the league? Cos my house will go on it if he does.

I agree that the result is stupid and Luton are going to win it comfortably, but I guess it’s because of this:-

Notts have already played most of the division’s top teams away (Luton, Coventry, Wycombe, Mansfield, Exeter and Swindon), whilst our home record so far is so good that it’ll ‘statistically’ predict us to win those games, tipping the balance.

The alternative and probably more sensible reading is that our home and away form will balance out a bit between now and the end of the season!

[60YearsAPie]

http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...y-to-pip-luton

Much as I'd like this table to be true, I find it hard to understand why we have a 16% better chance than Luton.

Our best chance will be to keep within 2 points of Luton. The final game of the season against them will then be a winner takes all.

[SmiffyPie]

I agree that the result is stupid and Luton are going to win it comfortably,

What was that little ditty we were singing several years ago? Oh yes..... "16 points and you phlucked it up..."