I think I can sum your promotion prospects as follows

Top 6 - 90%

Unfortunately Wolves seem to have a grip on 1 of the autos, so there leaves just 1 left.
Every team chasing this spot will lose some games, so the question is how do you bounce back from a defeat. Thus far you've handled it well. All these away wins add up come April and May.

Cardiff have a slight advantage being in Wales, making their stadium a fortress, plus Warnock is a past master at holding on a lead. He's very happy to nick a point away with the occasional win to boot.

So it boils down to you playing well away and not losing at home. I would rate your chances based on your current record at 60% to secure 2nd place.

As for the play-offs, well that would a different matter. So it's 2nd place you want now. It's really yours to lose, based on your record and style of play. The best way you can help is to make Pride Park a wall of noise for home games, if there was ever a moment for the '12th man', the time is now.