In today's market

[andyj73]

It's not that simple mate - for one, the TV deal only applies to teams in the PL, which we might not be in a few months time. Granted, with investment we'd expect to come back up, but there's no guarantees - Villa have spent a fortune since going down but still look like they'll be lucky to come up through the playoffs. Because of FFP in the Championship, your spending is restricted by your turnover, and that'll drop massively upon relegation. There's also the second key issue of the infrastructure at the club needing to be overhauled. Our training facilities and academy are literally decades behind the times. There's a side that look like they could be playing in League 1 next season that have better facilities than us. Thirdly, Ashley has sold off tangible assets that came with his purchase of the club, like the land surrounding the ground. This is important because it limits the potential for development. That doesn't necessarily mean expanding the stadium - if you've been to Stamford Bridge you'll see the development of that whole area into revenue-generating streams for the club (there's hotels, bars, restaurants, music venues, etc. all owned by the club and bringing in income; ultimately they can all be sold off as prime real estate).

The club simply isn't worth the price Ashley is asking because there aren't assets present to that value. The main assets of any football club are the contracts of the players, and the fact is our players aren't worth that much. The next major asset is the stadium, and we don't own that. So, in the event of the collapse of the TV revenue, there's little against which to insure the financial risk of the investors (whoever they ultimately are). There are clubs that could be bought for a lot less, who have similar-sized stadiums (think Leeds, Sunderland, Aston Villa) who do have those assets in place already. That means for an objective investor you'd have to limit your risk in accordance with the alternative investments you could make in the market. There's two main reasons the asking price of our club is as high as it is: the projected increases in TV revenue (which is vulnerable to some future innovation like the emergence of a Spotify for football), and the debt owed to the current owner. For all Ashley is lauded, and rightly in some ways, for his financial management of the club, he has failed to reduce the overall debt of the club even during profitable periods. At the same time he has overseen a relative drop in commercial revenue, which has further hindered our ability to clear those outstanding debts. This would be forgivable if the money had improved the infrastructure of the club, or if it had been invested in such a way as to improve the squad, but he has done neither in his tenure. As such, he's added no actual value to the thing he bought. That's a massive shame for everyone involved, and is ultimately the cause of the current stand-off with Staveley, who understands the size of the monetary (and time) investment required to allow us to progress within the FFP rules.

Long and short of it is I don't think she'll buy the club, because she knows nobody else will pay Ashley's asking price and that he won't drop the price. We're stuck with him I reckon.

.. Villa are three points off 2nd place and the form team. Be surprised if they don't go up mind ..

[Andy1981_2]

.. Villa are three points off 2nd place and the form team. Be surprised if they don't go up mind ..

They still have everyone around them to play, so it's anybody's guess who'll take that second place spot; personally, I'm not convinced they'll see it through because they've struggled against the teams at the top end (lost to Boro, Wolves, Derby, drew with Sheff Utd, Leeds) in the first half of the season. I've a mate who's a Villa fan and he seems confident mind. I don't watch them play, so he's probably a better judge! I also thought you'd be pushing for a playoff spot...

[ex_pat_magpie]

They still have everyone around them to play, so it's anybody's guess who'll take that second place spot; personally, I'm not convinced they'll see it through because they've struggled against the teams at the top end (lost to Boro, Wolves, Derby, drew with Sheff Utd, Leeds) in the first half of the season. I've a mate who's a Villa fan and he seems confident mind. I don't watch them play, so he's probably a better judge! I also thought you'd be pushing for a playoff spot...

No Andy, their fate was sealed last season when they convinced them selves it was a piss poor league that any decent club could walk.

Well perhaps they are right. They couldn't get above the relegation places in a piss poor league.