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11 games to go -5 home, 6 away. I reckon 22 points needed to go up automatically.
Cheltenham - A - win
Forest Green - A win
Mansfailed - H - lose
Chesterfield - A - win
Wycombe - H - Draw
Accy - A - Lose
Coventry - H - Draw
Colchester - A - Draw
Yeovil - H - Win
Grimsby - A - Win
Going to need to beat Luton on the last day to go up. Hope they are champions before then.
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22 points should be enough but I really cant see us winning 4 out of 6 away games, we've only won 5 out of 17 away so far.Originally Posted by arnapie
First target is guarantee a play off spot as that would make this season an amazing achievement, 4 more wins should secure that (5 to make sure)
Either way, yesterdays result should have given the players a confidence boost to get a run going into the crucial final stages
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One thing I disagree with you about, Arna, is that Luton would be an easier game if they were already promoted. It just doesn't work like that.
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We're back to 1 game per week for the foreseeable future. Hopefully this will mean we won't have to keep on resting players, mainly Ameobi, you'd like to think he can manage 1 game per week.
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Ameobi's the key. He's our only genuine centre forward. Jon Stead is tall and looks like a centre forward, but he just doesn't dominate and relies too much on crumpling under challenges and winning free kicks. He's better as a second striker playing off Ameobi, because you can't fault Stead for workrate and effort, especially at his age. He ran his socks off yesterday.
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We have taken 61 points from 35 games. So that's an average of 1.74 points per game. On this basis we would be on course to finish on 80 points.
In the past 5 seasons 80 points would have us finish, 4th, 6th, 6th, 4th and 2nd. So 4 out of 5 seasons a guaranteed play-off place and an automatic promotion.
The team in third place in the last 5 seasons finished on 85, 85, 85, 81 and 78 points. So an average of 83 points. As Carlton_pie says another 22 points. 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the remaining 11 games. It's a tough ask but not impossible.
We've got some big games coming up at home against Mansfield, Wycombe, Coventry and Luton, but also away against Accrington, Chesterfield and Grimsby because the latter two will be fighting to stay up by the time we play them. These are seven key games for me because these games make it in our own hands. How we fair against these will ultimately determine whether we have enough for automatic promotion.
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First 15 games we averaged 2pts per game
7 x home > 17pts = ave 2.43
8 x away > 13pts = ave 1.63
Total 30pts = 2.00 per game
second 15 games we averaged 1.6pts per game
9 x home > 17pts = ave 1.89
6 x away > 7pts = ave 1.17
Total 24pts = 1.6 per game
Final 16 games so far
2 x home > 6pts = ave 3.00
3 x away > 1pts = ave 0.33
Total 7pts = ave 1.4
We really need to get our average up which means winning at home and picking up draws as a minimum away.
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I think it's too much to be honest. However, if we did beat Mansfield and Wycombe then that would certainly boost our chances.
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Well for a start expecting 3pts at FGR (top of the current home form stats with 4/4. Us 15th on the away form stats) is a big ask.
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Statistics show that statistics can prove anything but we, as Notts supporters, should know that current form means nothing really. No-one should be at at all suprised if we went on to romp the title or drop out of the top seven. With games in hand the same can be said of any of the top six, except Luton.
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