Notts haven't won 2 games in a row since September so I just can't see them suddenly winning 8 in a row.
So is getting promoted in our hands or not? Logically speaking.
I never said we WOULD win 8 in a row. I am speaking about the possibilities.
Let’s say for arguments sake, Carlisle, if they were to win all there remaining games, would it guarantee promotion? Possibly not.
If Notts were to win all 8 it’s guaranteed.
Is that so difficult to understand?
I'm not disputing any of that. We are where we deserve to be. Yes we have thrown points away towards the end of games and we are guilty of not finishing teams off at times and sitting back, and had we not done that we probably would be top instead of Accrington. It's all if's and but's.
Five teams below us have a game in hand, and it's unlikely all those will drop points so that will tighten things up again. Our goal difference is far superior than Exeters so that could be worth an extra point to us.
If we want to stay in touch with the automatic promotion places then in my opinion we have to win at Chesterfield, and get 4 points over the Easter Weekend which my preference would be a win against Wycombe at home and a draw away at Accrington.
That will put us on 73 points with 5 games remaining after Easter.
Mansfield's game in hand is on 10th April. Accrington, Exeter, Lincoln and Wycombe's game in hand is on Tuesday 17th April. The good news is Lincoln and Wycombe play each other in their game in hand so both can't win that one.
We have won 18 games. For automatic promotion generally we need to have won half of our games this season, so 23. That's a minimum of 5 wins from 8 games which would put us on 81.
I'm predicting 83/84 for third place.
Last edited by MAD_MAGPIE; 22-03-2018 at 01:14 PM.
I think I'd take 7th right now, to be honest. You'd always take promotion but I think L1 would be a massive struggle for us next season. I'd rather be in L1 for 2019/20 than back in L2 after a relegation, given that choice, but of course there's no guarantee that we're going to be challenging next season if we don't go up.
Nolan hasn't been under any significant pressure since he's been here but I think he will be in the next campaign (regardless of which league we're in) and I'm not sure how well he'd be able to cope with that. He's certainly earned the right to have another go at it though.
I can see a situation where it’s us, the slags, Lincoln and Cov in the play offs which might be great fun.
We haven’t beaten anyone in the top 9 since September though which may be a problem going into the Easter games. I know it’s said a lot, but Chesterfield is a must win game.
I was thinking more in terms of results since September, and it's a good point that BigFatPie makes that Notts haven't beaten anybody in the top 9 since that month also. Decent draws at Luton and Lincoln, but nothing of note to inject any real belief that automatic promotion is likely, never mind that the club could hold its own in L1. Doncaster and Blackpool (3rd and 7th last season) are currently only 6 pts above the drop.
Maybe we'd spend big if we got promotion although we don't have form in that area either, which isn't a criticism, investing in other areas for longer term gain may well be the way forward.