In conclusion:
We need a max of 4 more points out of 9 to guarantee a play-off spot
Looks like we may need all 9 to mathematically guarantee 4th or 5th - which I personally think offers a massive advantage to us of playing at home in the second leg - especially given how we set-up and how strong we have been at home all season.
9 also gives us a remote chance at 3rd but certainly after last nights Exeter result this chance has faded.