Possible Outcomes

[MagicBoots]

Anorak time.

I was looking at some permutations on this.

Each team can get 6 possible points totals in the next two games. LL, LD, DD, LW, DW, WW. So, each team in the frame can possibly get 6 different points totals, meaning, believe it or not 6*6*6 = 216 possible outcomes. Now assuming that GD does not come into play - which makes things even more complicated - I was wondering how many permutations go in our favour.

So, I dropped it into excel, and if my calculations are right I got

Wycombe grab 3rd spot 115 times (~53%)
Exeter grab 3rd spot 56 times (~26%)
Notts grab 3rd spot 45 times (~21%)

Now considering the bookies were offering 9-1 for Notts to go up, actually the possibilities are higher. Admittedly, for Notts to grab 3rd spot a lot of the combinations are with Wycombe and Exeter scoring low, but who knows what could happen. How any times have we been relegated and then go beat someone in the top 7, so we can't take anything for granted. If we do win our last two games, it means we have won 5 on the bounce, and if we still do not go up, the team in third deserve it, but what it does mean is that we go into the playoffs in good form if thats the route we need to take. Can't ask for any more than that.

Also, a lot of posters on here are saying we blew it at Chesterfield or Barnet, but Exeter and Wycombe have had similar defeats and could still blow it if Stevenage play up. We can look back at the 99th minute of the Mansfield game, or the blatant penalty at Newport. If either of those decisions had gone the other way we would be in the drivers seat going into the final 2 games.

At least one thing is certain. We simply have to win. At least thats a certainty, and based on last three games the team has found again the appetite so lets which one of those 45 permutation play out.

[sidders]

Of course what your permutations do not take into account is the quality of the opposition, i.e. which of Exeter, Wycombe, Notts has the easiest run-in.

[Mapperleypie]

Of course what your permutations do not take into account is the quality of the opposition, i.e. which of Exeter, Wycombe, Notts has the easiest run-in.

Exeter have to play Stevenage (15th) and Colchester (11th) - Av league placing 13th

Wycombe have Chesterfield (24th) & Stevenage (15th) - Av placing 19.5

Notts - Grimsby (22nd), Luton (2nd) - Av placing 12th


On that extremely crude analysis you would fancy Wycombe, but they are not on form at all.

Over the next two weeks my second team is certainly Stevenage.

The bookies have us at 9/4 for promotion (either automatic or play-offs) an implied probability of 30.8%

[ncfcog]

As I posted in the play of thread you probably need to consider current form to get a more accurate picture.

Based on last 6 games:

Notts in 7th play Grimsby 14th and Luton 1st Average form placing 6th

Wycombe in 12th play Chesterfield 24th and Stevenage 13th Average form placing 6.5th

Exeter in 5th play Stevenage 13th and Colchester 11th Average form placing 12th

Now lets look at last 3 games form:

Notts in 1st play Grimsby 7th and Luton 2nd Average form placing 4.5th

Wycombe in 16th play Chesterfield 24th and Stevenage 21st Average form placing 23rd

Exeter in 12th play Stevenage 21st and Colchester 23rd Average form placing 22nd

Both Wycombe and Exeter have dropped form over the last 3 games whereas Notts are now the form team. However both Wycombe and Exeter have on paper much easier games against teams that are not in very good form and basically have nothing left to play for.

So in conclusion, what does this mean? absolutely fcuk all i suppose but one would assume 3rd place is Wycombes to lose.

There's another 15 minutes of my life I'll never get back!

[Pie_Scribe]

I don't think any combination would surprise me at this point. This has been a very closely contested league, for the most part, with anyone pretty much able to beat anyone. All we can do is hope for results to go our way, and see how it ends up. If we don't hit the top 3 though, we've still had a great season overall, but I'll be hoping for all 6 points on offer, and that that will be enough to clinch 3rd place.

[Pieeyedandlegless]

Say lavy (the nottingham way like)