Originally Posted by
Red Zone
For fear of getting slapped down by Mason let me try to help with this coefficient malarkey. Our current coefficient is 4 exactly, which is 1 point in each of the last four years for reaching QR3. The coefficient is based on the last five years so after this season our coefficient will improve as we were not in Europe five years ago. We will get at least 0.5 points if we get knocked out in QR2, another 1 point if it is another QR3 failure and 1.5 points if we make it to the play off round. So our coefficient for next season will most likely be somewhere between 4.5 and 5.5 (if we do somehow qualify for group stages the coefficient really racks up as get 2 points just for qualifying plus 2 points for each win or 1 point for each draw). Each year after this one it gets difficult to improve the coefficient any further as points start to drop off from five years ago.
With regard to seeding, whilst there are still a few places to be finalised in broad terms you will need a coefficient of between 4.35 and 5 to be seeded in QR2. A coefficient of at least 9 and maybe as high as 12 to be seeded in QR3 and a coefficient in excess of 20 to be seeded in the play off round. I realise that every year is different as who qualifies in each round but would not expect these numbers to be hugely different each season.
So what does that mean for the length of the piece of string? We will always be seeded in QR1 (due to country coefficient). If we continue to be knocked out on average at QR3 (assuming we are in Europe each year) then we will be there or thereabouts in being seeded for QR2. Even if we make the play off round every year (so a coefficient of 7.5) we have no chance of being seeded in QR3. The only way we can ever be seeded in QR3 would be to make the group stages at least once every five years and even then would need to pick up points in the group stage. Just forget about ever being seeded in the play off round.
The reality is that to get beyond QR3, with the new format for this season forwards, we will simply have to beat a team that is quite a bit better than us or hope that the seeded team we draw is beaten by the unseeded team they play in QR2 (assuming they play in QR2) and therefore we play a team of a similar level to us. Same goes for the play off round except with bells on.
As has been said by others, its all stacked against clubs of our stature from countries of our size.
I'm sure that's all clear as mud!!