Odds 18-19

[SwalePie]

Top half finish now 50/1 at SkyBet and BetVictor, it seems unlikely Notts will do it but with a January transfer window opening shortly 50/1 was sufficient value for me to chuck a few more quid in, am I just throwing it down the toilet? Probably

I'd say those were excellent odds. Might grab a slice myself Matt.

[matt5cott]

I'd say those were excellent odds. Might grab a slice myself Matt.

Yikes, now 60/1 at PaddyPower, £50 maximum stake.

It's worth noting that the algorithms calculating these odds will drift even further should Notts do poorly again new years day, 100/1 is not out of the question should this happen.

[Elite_Pie]

Yikes, now 60/1 at PaddyPower, £50 maximum stake.

It's worth noting that the algorithms calculating these odds will drift even further should Notts do poorly again new years day, 100/1 is not out of the question should this happen.

I have to admire your optimism, but in the real world every single bookie now has us odds on to be relegated, and the best odds (10/11 with BetVictor) only gives us a 47.6% chance of staying up. It's the first time this season I feel that they've got the odds about right.

[matt5cott]

I have to admire your optimism, but in the real world every single bookie now has us odds on to be relegated, and the best odds (10/11 with BetVictor) only gives us a 47.6% chance of staying up. It's the first time this season I feel that they've got the odds about right.

I did say above it seems unlikely Elite

I just think with a new manager, a January transfer window with backing from the chairman and about half a season to go there's plenty of time for a positive change.

[Elite_Pie]

I did say above it seems unlikely Elite

I just think with a new manager, a January transfer window with backing from the chairman and about half a season to go there's plenty of time for a positive change.

I agree, yesterday left me feeling more positive than I have done for ages. We only have a three point gap to close (ignoring goal difference) so we don't have a mountain to climb. As a gambler, it also left me in the happy position of guaranteeing a healthy profit by backing us to stay up, because I am already on at much higher odds to go down.

[sidders]

Hmmm, that shockingly bad goal difference is worth an extra point of anybody's money so we are effectively 4 points behind, not 3.

[matt5cott]

Warning, the following is outrageously optimistic and I've already booked in to see the nurse!

The next 2 games are VS fellow strugglers, Cambridge this Saturday and Yeovil on the 19th, the significance of this being if Notts are going to pick up points this is hopefully the time they're going to do it, 2 wins for example would alter the odds drastically, what odds you may cry! I'll get to that.

It would appear Notts have already strengthened in a significant manner and it's pretty early days in the window, more is to come we're told, though naturally who remains to be seen but bolster this with Enzio apparently coming back sooner than anticipated and things start to look up a bit, this is of course no substitute for points on the board.

So what am I getting at, top half finish, 200/1 at skybet, yes 200/1 with 18 matches remaining 3 weeks left on the transfer window and a chairman and manager who've made what appears to be 2 already good signings with potentially more.


Now a dose of negative (other than the fact Notts could quite easily get tonked in the "winnable fixtures") Beyond the transfer window closing February gets off to a brutal start, Lincoln on the 2nd and FGR away on the 9th, Notts should have quite a drastically different team by then, that said if they haven't already got to at least 25 points by this point you can pretty much write the bet off anyway! Similarly if Cambridge win Saturday, the odds will probably hit 500/1 as that's generally the next point in the algorithm.


I'm not advocating you lump on (the max is £20 anyway) but for £2.50, the rough price of a pint at wetherspoons, that in my opinion is worth the risk for a potential (if pie in the sky) return of £500.

[Elite_Pie]

Warning, the following is outrageously optimistic and I've already booked in to see the nurse!

Well, I hope your super-strong medication is working, but this does provide an object lesson in the dangers of letting the heart rule the head when placing a bet. I admire you for seeking out value, but backing Notts to finish in the top half isn't value. The latest odds on relegation paint a very bleak picture - the lowest price of 1/6 gives us a 14.3% chance of survival, even the best odds of 2/7 only give a 22.2% chance of staying up. To put that into a bit of context, the bookies are offering odds that give all of our relegation rivals a better than 50% chance of avoiding the drop.

[matt5cott]

Well, I hope your super-strong medication is working, but this does provide an object lesson in the dangers of letting the heart rule the head when placing a bet. I admire you for seeking out value, but backing Notts to finish in the top half isn't value. The latest odds on relegation paint a very bleak picture - the lowest price of 1/6 gives us a 14.3% chance of survival, even the best odds of 2/7 only give a 22.2% chance of staying up. To put that into a bit of context, the bookies are offering odds that give all of our relegation rivals a better than 50% chance of avoiding the drop.

It certainly isn't a good bet now! And it's certainly not a value bet now, but that's hindsight I stand by it as I think the odds were good value at the time, I thought they had a shout with the transfer window opening but they needed to win the last 2 games, I thought they'd get something and kick on from that, I was wrong, they didn't.

[matt5cott]

Anyone know of odds on Notts avoiding the drop?