D Day for Brexit

[sinkov]

Supersub, we could simply walk away tomorrow and there is nothing the EU could do about it.

That is in OUR gift.

But very few people want a complete break - hence the horse trading and bickering.

So let's not blame the EU for doing their job. They don't want us to leave - that is OUR decision.

No we couldn't just walk away, the only way to leave the EU is by a withdrawal agreement under Article 50. We could walk away from negotiating a trade deal which is different thing, but why would we, and Parliament might have something to say about that as well.

Not sure whether it's due to sheer incompetence or a cunning Remainer plan, but our options are now strictly limited to what May can get through Parliament, and what the EU will agree to, there isn't much that's in our gift at all.

[Supersub6]

I'm with you on this sinkov in that we can't just walk away because there will be things which we must adhere to as laid out under Article 50.
If we did walk away without fulfilling our obligations, whatever they are, this would be made quite clear that we are not to be trusted and could severely hamper future relations both within and outside of the EU.
It is like being in a tug-of-war when half of your team is pushing rather than pulling.

[sinkov]

OC, your version of Brexit means that we will have to sort out a trade deal with them and continue to be partners with them on some matters (you have quoted defence).

Fair enough. But that is just YOUR opinion. Some people want a complete break, others want closer ties of a greater or lesser degree.
Some people like Theresa's plan, others don't. There must be hundreds of different Brexits but the Quitters cannot coalesce on any single version.

Like I said, there is no consensus. You want a specific type of Brexit while others want a different kind. We are in a complete en passe.

I can speak from recent experience about trading internationally.

Until I retired last year I spent 25 years importing and exporting IT equipment. Over these years we developed trading partners right round the world. In this time we developed trust and understanding between us, which money can't buy.
For logistical reasons the contacts we established were around 75% EU and 25% the rest of the world.
Trading in the EU is truly as simple as trading within the UK. Payment is made and the goods were shipped and delivered within two days.
With the rest of the world it is nowhere near as simple. We deal with the USA, Asia, Africa.
Take Kenya for example. To supply them with goods we have to fill in ten different forms. The goods have to be inspected by a third party before they can ship. The time from shipping to delivery is around 6-8 weeks. In this time the customer is vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations, which can turn a good deal into a bad deal whilst the goods are still on the water.
The same is true for every other non EU country we deal with. Each country has it's own requirements for form filling etc. which have to be understood and adhered to. Each countries requirements are different.

Having spent 25 years building up solid relationships within the EU I am at a loss why we are intending to put it all at risk. It was never "EU or rest of the world". It was always "both". If there is good business to be done in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA etc then OF COURSE we did it. We spent 25 years exploring and developing these markets.

So if we lose a big chunk of our EU business it is just not possible to replace it with non-EU business...because we have already explored these markets, and operate within them NOW.
I recently spoke to an Hiungarian customer of ours, who is VERY important to our business. He explained that his company are reluctantly putting measures in place for after we leave the EU to replace us as their main supplier.

It makes me angry when I hear politicians who obviously have no idea about foreign trade say "We do not need the EU. We will open up bigger markets when we leave"

Totally deluded and ill informed.

Thank you 59/60, you make the case for leaving the EU so well. Of course trade within the EU is simple because we are in the single market and customs union, abut as you say, trade outside of the EU is more problematic because, by it's very nature, the EU is incapable of agreeing trade deals with other countries. Thus you and everyone other business in the UK has difficulties trading outside of the EU, and outside of the EU is where most of our trade is done, and the % of trade done outside of the EU is growing, while trade within the sclerotic EU is diminishing year on year.

So we can make trading with other countries like Kenya much easier by agreeing a trade deal with them, which we cannot while in the EU's Customs Union and Single Market. We can negotiate access to the EU's single market and agree to tariff free trade, and thus have the best of both worlds, for your company and everyone else.

But of course it's not so easy in real life is it, the EU is a protectionist superstate, determined to protect the 4 freedoms at whatever cost to their economies and ours, and determined that there will not be a succesful UK economy flourishing on it's borders, so stony faced intransigence is what we face instead of of reasoned, sensible negotiations.

But that's the EU for you, and why me and 17 million others voted to get out of it. You may love the EU 59/60, but they don't give a ****e about democracy, you, or your business, and they'll happily see you go to the wall to protect their grand superstate project.

[1959_60]

Sinkov, that is nonsense.

Like I said, trading within the EU is as easy as trading with a UK company.

The EU has also brokered many very good trade deals outside the EU which we benefit from.

The main drawback with trading outside the EU is location. If you look at the map you will see that Australia, USA, China etc are a long way away. Normal transit times are 6-8 weeks for these areas.

If we strike a deal with, say, a company in Australia then we would have to stump the money up front and wait 8 weeks before we get the goods. We are then vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations (a run on the pound may mean that the deal is not worth doing).
If, as is often the case, there is a problem with the goods when we receive them, it is a much harder job to rectify it.
And the reverse is true if we are selling goods.

Dealing with Germany for example means that we stump the money up front and we receive the shipment usually within two days, no tariffs, no border checks, no import duty etc. Returning faulty goods is a simple process.

BUT...we STILL deal with non EU companies despite this.

When we leave the EU then, depending on the deal, we will certainly lose some of our trading partners. A Hungarian company could do similar trade with a Dutch company as they used to do with us without the hassle. And I know for a fact that these countries are currently making their plans for when we leave the EU.

We are about to leave a very successful free trade block for no good reason.

Politicians (who generally have no idea about how trade actually works) are telling us it will be easy to replace this lost trade by trading outside the EU. Boris recently said "f**k trade".
Perhaps we will magically get better trade deals with these countries than we have at present.
Why should that be? The EU has brokered many good trade deals because of the size of the EU. why should the UK (much smaller) get a better deal?
We will see, but whatever the deal, these countries are still going to be much further away that mainland Europe - and that is a real barrier to trade.

On top of that, these countries have different trading standards. EU law on this means that our imports (and exports) have to be of a good standard of quality and safety. Are we happy to import american chlorinated chicken or Chinese fireworks for instance?

[oldcolner]

Drunker Juncker

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...53765768541592

[oldcolner]

EU trying to ramp up the threats
Varadkar threatens to ban our planes .. but shoots himself in the foot as we control all the airspace Irish planes would need to fly over apart from the Canaries.

He said
The situation at the moment is that the United Kingdom is part of the single European sky, and if they leave the EU they are not and that does mean that if there was a no deal hard Brexit next March the planes would not fly and Britain would be an island in many ways, and that is something that they need to think about.

'You can not have your cake and eat it. You can't take back your waters and then expect to use other people's sky.'

He added: 'In the unlikely event that we have a hard Brexit next March, with no deal, I think every country will struggle to put in place the necessary infrastructure and customs and veterinary officials in their ports and airports. It won't be just us.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...flying-UK.html

[sinkov]

"The EU has also brokered many very good trade deals outside the EU which we benefit from."

We joined the EU in 1973, 45 years ago. In all of that 45 years the EU has failed to negotiate a Trade Deal with any of the world's six largest economies outside of the EU, The USA, China, Japan, India, Brazil and Canada. Although I believe just a couple of days ago they did manage to sign a provisional deal with Japan. So, of course, this means we don't have free trade deals with them either, with all the added difficulties this entails.

"We are about to leave a very successful free trade block for no good reason."

We can leave the single market, but there is no reason why we cannot still have access to the single market and trade tariff free with the 27 remaining countries. No reason at all, except EU intransigence.

[sinkov]

Confirmation of the fact that the Tory Chairman, who was paied with Jo Swinson, actually voted.

Some info at the link on how pairing works too.

NEVER trust a Tory.

There is only one good Tory, that is a lavatory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

This Jo Swinson, who couldn't get herself into Parliament for an important vote last week, because she has a baby to look after, would it be the same Jo Swinson who managed to get herself to an anti-Trump rally last week, despite having a baby to look after ?

[1959_60]

Morning Sinkov.

A list of EU trade deals at the link.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...artly-in-place

It is looking more and more likely that we could be making a complete break from the EU in March. That's just 8 months away. When the EU rejects Theresa's plan (which you do not support) then Parliament will have to decide whether to make the concessions which they will ask for. Boris and Rees-Mogg etc will make sure that this does not happen.
So Theresa will have three options. A General Election (which would probably result in Jeremy taking over), no deal - meaning we will leave in March without any deal, or handing the decision to the public (which she has ruled out)
I think the no deal is the one she will opt for - she can say that "no deal is better than a bad deal" and maintain a little bit of face.

So I reckon you will get your way in March Sinkov.

At that point we will not have a trade agreement in place with the EU or anyone else. These deals take ages to set up and in the meantime we are likely to be trading under WTO rules...with all that that entails.
And we have just 8 months to sort out the Irish border thing, and a whole host of issues that will result.

Congratulations.

[1959_60]

"This Jo Swinson, who couldn't get herself into Parliament for an important vote last week, because she has a baby to look after, would it be the same Jo Swinson who managed to get herself to an anti-Trump rally last week, despite having a baby to look after ?"

The very same Sinkov.

Just because she is on maternity leave doesn't mean that her life is put on hold. Who knows, she may have gone to the cinema as well?

Pairing in Parliament means that MP's don't have to turn up simply to vote if, for example, they are on maternity leave, sick or on other business. It is an agreement that MP's of all parties use and usually happens automatically.

The Tory chief whip apparently instructed three of his MP's to ignore the pairing agreements in order to win the vote. The other two MP's ignored his instructions but one of them - who happened to be the Tory chairman - decided to vote.

Now, if you are defending this action then I am disappointed at you. We have plenty of work in front of us to get to a coalition agreement, but I have never doubted that you are a honest and principled bloke.