Originally Posted by
DollyLongstaffe
Problem is I've been reading this kind of thing for years. It's not sustainable, there will be an implosion. Little evidence ever seems to be offered beyond gut feel and a sense that "it's all gone crazy".
I read an article in one of the papers a few years back (almost certainly The Times or Sunday Times) that challenged this view head on. I wish I'd kept it. The writer, an economist with a particular interest in the game and the TV companies argued that, contrary to the bloke down the boozer conventional wisdom that the amount of TV money washing around the English game could not be sustained, he was convinced it would continue to grow for the foreseeable future.
He gave elaborate reasons for this, but basically it boiled down to the extent to which the availability of a football league competition is a trigger for making people subscribe to TV providers world-wide. And as new markets opened up in China etc the product was only becoming more valuable. There was also a detailed discussion of why the English league was uniquely well-placed to be the league everyone bought into.
OK it's one guy's opinion and people can get this stuff wrong. But I couldn't help but be struck by the fact that I'd heard the "it can't last" opinion so many times, yet when someone who was qualified to actually took the trouble to examine the evidence intellligently he took exactly the opposite view. And sure enough the next time the TV deals were negotiated, and contrary to the views of the "it can't last" orthodoxy, the "unsustainable" level of money went up. Massively.
The TV companies don't give a **** if a couple of thousand Chelsea fans are nostalgic for the old days. What they care about is millions of Chinese subscribing for Sky.
Maybe the whole thing will collapse like a pack of cards as folk like to predict. I'm not holding my breath.