How long will Nolan get?

[SwalePie]

What?? Don't come on here with your balanced views! This is sweeping statement country!

OK, I'm in. Here's one!

Champions. We'll be promoted as champions at the end of this season.

Now what the funk have I said?

[jackal2]

OK, I'm in. Here's one!

Champions. We'll be promoted as champions at the end of this season.

Now what the funk have I said?

It only truly counts if you put your money on it!

Dafter things have happened though. I recall Reading in the 2011-12 Championship season being nowhere before Christmas and then going on a storming run of wins to eventually take the title. Success or failure certainly isn't written in August.

[tarquinbeech]

This is where the word 'value' comes into play tarquin. While I don't think we'll be relegated, I think our chances of being relegated are much higher than the 2.4% chance that 40/1 equates to. I'd rate our chances at around 12/1, so 40/1 can't be missed. As you say the odds for promotion are ridiculously low. Betfred have us at 2/1 and Stags at 11/4!!! I was strangely optimistic at the start of the season, and I know it's only 3 games out of 46, but instinct tells me we are a long way from being a promotion side.

The problem with these "value bets" with the normal betting companies is that they rarely offer to cash them out, in my experience, even if the odds fall from from 40s to 12s ie they are only good bets if you back them on the exchanges and then level up for green-green later on in the season....or hold onto them with the likes of BET365 and cash them in at the end.

I had Notts for promo last season, and at no point did I see a "cash-out" option even when we reached the play-offs

[Elite_Pie]

The problem with these "value bets" with the normal betting companies is that they rarely offer to cash them out, in my experience, even if the odds fall from from 40s to 12s ie they are only good bets if you back them on the exchanges and then level up for green-green later on in the season....or hold onto them with the likes of BET365 and cash them in at the end.

I had Notts for promo last season, and at no point did I see a "cash-out" option even when we reached the play-offs

Don't know if that's an overseas thing, but nearly all my accounts offer a cash out option. I only put the relegation bet on Notts a couple of hours ago, and William Hill are already offering me a cash out (they call it cash in) option on the bet. Obviously it's a poor offer as the odds are unchanged, but it's something I'll consider if the odds tumble. The other bonus is that they offer partial cash out in 10% increments, so you can often get your money back and still leave half the bet running.

[tarquinbeech]

Don't know if that's an overseas thing, but nearly all my accounts offer a cash out option. I only put the relegation bet on Notts a couple of hours ago, and William Hill are already offering me a cash out (they call it cash in) option on the bet. Obviously it's a poor offer as the odds are unchanged, but it's something I'll consider if the odds tumble. The other bonus is that they offer partial cash out in 10% increments, so you can often get your money back and still leave half the bet running.

That really is weird......I gamble every night on baseball on 365 and I'm always cashing in or out as the game changes over the 9 innings, love it.....but last season 3 bets on Notts and they never offered me a cash out....I had Notts for Champions, Notts for promo and Notts to be the best Midlands team....not to worry, I'll stick to match betting for now

[tarquinbeech]

That really is weird......I gamble every night on baseball on 365 and I'm always cashing in or out as the game changes over the 9 innings, love it.....but last season 3 bets on Notts and they never offered me a cash out....I had Notts for Champions, Notts for promo and Notts to be the best Midlands team....not to worry, I'll stick to match betting for now

OK, sorry to bore everyone but I think I've figured out what happened....all my Notts bets last season were in the "handicap market" which I hadn't seen before....365 put up a fictional end-of-season league table as of favs at the top to bottom, then they handicapped everyone. I remember Luton were top and Mansfield 2nd and both were on minus handicaps....Notts had a plus handicap which is what I backed, £20 EW gave me £20 on Champions and £20 on 2nd and 3rd plus I had a fiver on "regional champions"....maybe the computer didn't have an algorithm to keep checking the pluses and minuses every week and offer the cash-out option and let the handicap market run until the end of the season...or, with Accy almost certainly having a huge plus handicap pre-season AND being in the top 4 for so long, they were onto a certain winner and didn't bother offering cash-outs.
No idea....don't care now anyway....ignore my ramblings

[Elite_Pie]

That really is weird......I gamble every night on baseball on 365 and I'm always cashing in or out as the game changes over the 9 innings, love it.....but last season 3 bets on Notts and they never offered me a cash out....I had Notts for Champions, Notts for promo and Notts to be the best Midlands team....not to worry, I'll stick to match betting for now

Here's an example of how it works on a bet I had on Liverpool to win the Premiership:

Single To Win (Boosted)

Liverpool @ 4.31/1OutrightOpen

English Premier League - Outright

Stake: £20.00 Potential Returns: £106.36

£2.00£20.00
10%
50%
100%
Cash In
Cash In Value : £17.37

The bit at the bottom where it says "£2.00£20.00 10% 50% 100% Cash In Cash In Value: £17.37" is actually a little slider where I can select how much of the bet I want to cash in (10%, 20%, 30% up to 100%) and it tells me what that percentage will pay out, and what the return will be on the part of the bet that remains. Very useful if you think something is overpriced, like 40/1 on notts being relegated!!!.

[drillerpie]

OK, sorry to bore everyone but I think I've figured out what happened....all my Notts bets last season were in the "handicap market" which I hadn't seen before....365 put up a fictional end-of-season league table as of favs at the top to bottom, then they handicapped everyone. I remember Luton were top and Mansfield 2nd and both were on minus handicaps....Notts had a plus handicap which is what I backed, £20 EW gave me £20 on Champions and £20 on 2nd and 3rd plus I had a fiver on "regional champions"....maybe the computer didn't have an algorithm to keep checking the pluses and minuses every week and offer the cash-out option and let the handicap market run until the end of the season...or, with Accy almost certainly having a huge plus handicap pre-season AND being in the top 4 for so long, they were onto a certain winner and didn't bother offering cash-outs.
No idea....don't care now anyway....ignore my ramblings

The market has to be open to able to cash out, during the season they usually only offer champions / promotion / relegation, plus top 4 for the PL, anything else as you say just disappears after pre season.

[tarquinbeech]

The market has to be open to able to cash out, during the season they usually only offer champions / promotion / relegation, plus top 4 for the PL, anything else as you say just disappears after pre season.

Handicap market disappeared, that explains it...cheers m'dears

[puddingking]

Agree Gump. I'm not sure he's spent the transfer kitty wisely. No cover at full-back, keeping the woeful Jones, replacing O'Connor / Milsom / Noble / anyone who can play centre with Vaughan, and signing a load of midgets. Would have liked to see a Ravenhill / Harding type tackler in the middle.