Originally Posted by frenchmagpie
Reply With QuoteI don't know AH but I think we all know the sad state our club was in when he took over. His takeover may have saved us from administration and he deserves credit for that; however his comments this week that he would never have made the purchase in hindsight tell us that it has been far from plain sailing.
Saving a club from Administration does not make a good Chairman over time. It makes a good Chairman AT the time of the clubs financial and ownership crisis in early 2017.
So if we take a look at the time AH has been in control, as supporters of the club, we must consider if the club is better off now under his watch, and by better off I define as being strong and sound financially. No one can argue we are better off football performance wise from A to B (where we are today). Are we at risk anymore of a catastrophic financial episode? Are we operating sustainably that makes us both well founded currently, but also in future to any potential buyer if Mr Hardy decides to move on?
The most important person in any football club is the largest creditor. Why? Because whether we like it or not, they are the most powerful and have the control, and ultimately the future of our clubs at all levels of the pyramid, depend on the fortunes and abilities of the largest creditor.
It is fact that clubs that operate hand to mouth, sustainably , without relying on large debt, or spending funded by a third party or private owner, have most control and most protection in terms of longevity. There aren't many of those because A) not many are run well enough to be successful, self-sustaining and profitable, andbecause we as supporters often charge chairmen and boards with a lack of ambition if they appear to not want to risk throwing money we don't have at the age old problem of seeking promotion.
So where are we at?
Just over 12 months ago, a very short time ago (April 2017) Mr Hardy wound up Notts County Ladies saying “He cannot afford it". The "it" he was referring to was a £500K Legacy debt and a running year- on-year loss of £500K (https://nottstv.com/notts-county-own...-of-my-career/)
Reports at the year-on-year loss, and indeed Mr Hardy's own claims and understanding of the figures (in this article he claims £350K of legacy debt and "near" to half a millions year on year losses under the CURRENT contractual arrangements (he could have cleaned it out and moved people on I guess..https://www.theguardian.com/football...-before-season) are varied and inconsistent.
But let's put Mr Hardy's rather loose numbers aside and allow him the £500K per year figure he said he could "simply not afford" at the time, as that is the relevant aspect in context of this conversation. That is a rather shallow pool of safety for a club the size of Notts County- an owner who cannot afford 500K has very little capability to cover any kind of unbudgeted costs, or revenue reductions that haven't been forecast.
He could not afford that only 4 months into his tenure, and 14 months of "mistake" riddled governance since, logically cannot lead us to believe that the club is in any better position to afford it now.
In that time AH has fought and lost an unfair dismissal tribunal claim against John Sheridan losing £125K http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/foo...idan-125k.html
He has claimed to have signed Kevin Nolan to a long term deal. He severed ties with KN last week and the general rule from the LMA on these things is at the very least a payout representing the rest of the contracted season’s wages . We can only guess at KNs salary but conservatively we can say that sacking is going to cost the club approx. £125K in compensation at least
Harry Kewell and staff will not be cheap, more in wages than KN I would guess at least £80K per year more than Nolan and assistant as Harry was in the driving seat in negotiations... Plus any "restructuring” costs a new manager incurs such as moving on staff currently in situ, another £40-60K ? (Very conservative)
That isn't taking into account any compensation to Crawley which even at quarter of reported price is £100K.
There have been other restructuring and compensation payments made in the past 3-6 months that are not public, albeit have been subject to plenty of scuttlebutt around Nottingham and online, not worth going into, however there have been costs involved with moving on a few staff in the region of £100K in total.
So even at the most conservative estimates , and taking into account these are only extra costs that we KNOW of or have a reasonably good idea about, we are looking at £570K un-forecast losses at least over and above the usual trading losses the club operates under until such time as a complete turnaround from the previous owners can be achieved.
Legacy debts remain unpaid to associate directors who really did “save” the club in the time the club was in flux between Mr Trew stepping aside and Mr Hardy taking control and the Hadyn Green trust who ultimately owns and controls Meadow Lane remains a large unpaid creditor.
Companies house does not make for pleasant reading, in June of 2017 the Club had a net worth of minus £6,271,609 and only £365,278 in assets.
For a Chairman who could not afford the ladies team losses last year, that is a worrying position.
But let's say AH can afford these losses. We are fine to trade for the short term. But how long can he afford it?
The books tell us that he has "loaned" Notts county football club £4Million to date...that is a lot of working capital that has propped up the club in only 18 months. These loans are farmed through his other company, Paragon interiors and he charges 4% interest per annum to the club for those loans. (£160,000 per year)
This, in my opinion is where ownership and funding are two different beasts. Some say that the chairman has every right to spend money however he sees fit at the club. However doing that by loaning money to the club, that the club cannot realistically expect to repay in the near to mid future, is rather destructive and reckless.
How will Alan get his (paragons) £4m back (plusinterest)? Selling the club with a large director’s loan brings with it its own problems and makes the club a less attractive proposition for buyers and was ironically the issue that was a sticking point for Alan himself buying out Mr Trew.
If Mr Hardy's circumstances change, or Paragons do, and he can no longer, or no longer chooses to fund the club these increasing losses that he himself is implementing and managing, we have a catastrophic financial episode looming.
All of this sitting bottom of the FL with a new manager in place and a squad largely built by a guy most people now agree had very little talent in recruiting a squad. So those facts make one of the other “trading out” options rather less realistic ..Promotion to the Championship
There are questions that we should ask about stability and structure also
Well known and regarded local businessmen have been brought into the fold as associate directors with significant fanfare over the short time AH has run the club. On June 6th Mr John Enever and Mr Darren Fletcher were appointed directors at Companies house; both resigned their positions in late August 2018. One- Mr Fletcher was promoted to vice Chairman by Mr Hardy as late as June 27th 2018 amongst much fanfare and praise by Mr Hardy, just 8 prior to Fletcher resigning completely from the board….
Mr Enever was a little more forthcoming with his resignation, a matter of record we don’t need to re-visit here, however notably he stated that Mr Hardy uttered a complete “untruth” in the statement about Mr Nolan’s sacking. Mr Nolan himself suggested he had been told by “certain people” that he was safe and being supported in his role for the long term, and as such was let down and felt he was misled by said person or persons. When questioned on this on television My Hardy said he doesn’t believe Mr Nolan was referring to him, rather others….curious as to who they could possibly be.
Also curious was the much lauded appointment of Mr Edward Peck to the board in August 2017, a man of character and esteemed reputation in Nottingham as Professor and Vice Chancellor at Trent University, who has also stood down from his position without as much as a note in the evening post about why or when.
We have very, very little margin for any more errors it would seem and at a time the club has such little room to move, uncertainty and instability among the directorship, all pointing towards a rookie, inexperienced, yet dictatorial and egotistical Chairman, is certainly worth keeping a protective eye on for Supporters.
I don't mean this to be a doomsday message; we are not too different to many other clubs currently. But I do mean this to highlight that forgiving actions of a Chairman, and allowing them to go unquestioned and given free rein on the basis that “it’s his money he can to what he wants with it" is an extremely reckless point of view for supporters to take.
If Mr Hardy were to be donating money to the club, or even writing a sponsorship to the club through Paragon for £2million per season, and wanted to spend that how and when he liked on whatever players, coaches and changing room renovations he wants, then that argument would stand up and be very relevant. But whilst ever Mr Hardy is encumbering our club with Debt, and making all the decisions to do so how and when he likes, and even charging interest on those self-provided loans, it is prudent that we as supporters keep a careful watch and ensure he is held accountable and responsible for what to date, looks to be a very dicey and high risk financial approach to the way he has begun his life as a football club chairman.
