Who'll Go First?

[Simon the Pieman]

Merkel or Kewell? Interested to hear your views.

[Bridg4d_Pie_]

Merkel or Kewell? Interested to hear your views.

I would like to think that it would be Harry Clueless, you cannot do pre or post match interviews and place the blame on the players without accepting some of the blame for your poor knowledge of substitutions as was the case against Swindon, to move Hewitt from midfield and replace him with Vaughn was suicide as Vaughn has little pace and cannot tackle, we had players on the bench defenders who should have been brought on. Why bring Dennis on with 4 or 5 minutes to play what impact is he going to make in that time I ask.

Personally I feel he signed his own Death Warrant with his post match interview with Charlie Slater, a Bad Workman always Blames His Tools.

[drillerpie]

Another day another load of right wing political ramblings and another new poster with an agenda

Business as usual on NCM.

[since41]

[sidders]

So the beginnings of 'a get rid of Kewell' movement? Kewell may have misjudged a number of things over the weekend, but he ain't going anywhere. Indeed, if he is, we are 'shot'.
Supporters of Notts need to adjust their minds, reality is not at fault. The club is in dire straits. The Conference beckons. Thank God for Morecambe and Macclesfield, otherwise we'd be evens for relegation.
All Kewell can do now is scramble to safety, bring on our few decent youths and build for 2019-20. Sad but true.

[Trickytreesreds]

So the beginnings of 'a get rid of Kewell' movement? Kewell may have misjudged a number of things over the weekend, but he ain't going anywhere. Indeed, if he is, we are 'shot'.
Supporters of Notts need to adjust their minds, reality is not at fault. The club is in dire straits. The Conference beckons. Thank God for Morecambe and Macclesfield, otherwise we'd be evens for relegation.
All Kewell can do now is scramble to safety, bring on our few decent youths and build for 2019-20. Sad but true.

I can only read that and wonder.
Last June, folks were ranting about Notts being favorites for promotion.
Now I'm no gambler, I always admit that. But why are the odds so far out? It's laughable by the results.
Am I missing something? Bookies being clever?

[Elite_Pie]

I can only read that and wonder.
Last June, folks were ranting about Notts being favorites for promotion.
Now I'm no gambler, I always admit that. But why are the odds so far out? It's laughable by the results.
Am I missing something? Bookies being clever?

What do you mean by the odds being "so far out", and which ones? This is those odds converted to a percentage chance:

Champions - 300/1, or a 0.33% chance of winning the league.
Promoted - 25/1, or a 3.8% chance of going up.
Top 7 finish - 10/1, or a 9.1% chance of making the top 7.
Top half finish - 5/2, or a 28.6% chance of finishing in the top half
Bottom half finish - 1/3, or a 75% chance of finishing in the bottom half.
Relegation - 14/1, or a 6.7% chance of going down.

The only one that looks out to me is the relegation price. I'd put our chances of the drop at about 15 - 20%, so 14/1 looks fair value.

What is the market or markets that you think are out of line with our situation?

[Trickytreesreds]

What do you mean by the odds being "so far out", and which ones? This is those odds converted to a percentage chance:

Champions - 300/1, or a 0.33% chance of winning the league.
Promoted - 25/1, or a 3.8% chance of going up.
Top 7 finish - 10/1, or a 9.1% chance of making the top 7.
Top half finish - 5/2, or a 28.6% chance of finishing in the top half
Bottom half finish - 1/3, or a 75% chance of finishing in the bottom half.
Relegation - 14/1, or a 6.7% chance of going down.

The only one that looks out to me is the relegation price. I'd put our chances of the drop at about 15 - 20%, so 14/1 looks fair value.

What is the market or markets that you think are out of line with our situation?

EP, can you pull up the odds from last June?

That is what I am interested in. To have Notts down as favorites then, they must have been a lot shorter?
The question was more how they arrived at that assessment, compared to Notts current position.

[drillerpie]

EP, can you pull up the odds from last June?

That is what I am interested in. To have Notts down as favorites then, they must have been a lot shorter?
The question was more how they arrived at that assessment, compared to Notts current position.

A banal answer but I think a lot of people just misjudged the situation. Last season we were a pretty solid unit just missing creativity up front. When we bought two new strikers and a couple of tricky wingers and a passing midfielder it looked like we'd found the missing pieces of the jigsaw.

Most of our fans thought we had bought well, I went on other teams' boards and they thought we'd bought well (there was a thread on the MK Dons board in summer lamenting that we'd bought all the best players and would be uncatchable) and the bookies obviously agreed.

[Elite_Pie]

EP, can you pull up the odds from last June?

That is what I am interested in. To have Notts down as favorites then, they must have been a lot shorter?
The question was more how they arrived at that assessment, compared to Notts current position.

We were never clear favourites, I think we might have been joint with a couple of bookies, but most had MK Dons and Stags shorter than us. I posted this three games in on August 19th:

The odds after yesterday's games still suggest we'll have a better season than many on here think:

Champions - 14/1
Promoted - 3/1
Top 7 finish - 5/4
Top half finish - 4/9
Bottom half finish - 7/4
Relegation - 40/1 (Only Coral offer 40/1, the rest are 33/1 at best)

Unfortunately, I think the only odds that offer value are the bottom half finish and relegation.

As usual, my advice in the last line was spot on! I advised backing us for the drop at 40/1 on the basis of a good cashout opportunity. I had £5 on and when we hit rock bottom the cashout offer was £18.04, as the 40/1 had dropped to 8/1.

The low early season price offered by the bookies was down to just missing out in the playoffs, making what seemed to be some good signings, and probably a few quid going on from optimistic Notts fans.