Originally Posted by
KerrAvon
I think your first question is rather simplistic in that electoral success is determined by a combination of leadership and policy.
On leadership, take Thatcher and Blair – irrespective of your view of their political philosophies - I would suggest that it is beyond doubt that they were leaders in the sense that people wanted to support and follow them. People who you would expect to vote Labour backed Thatcher time and time again and ‘natural’ Tory voters did the same thing for Blair. Thatcher wasn’t even particularly pleasant, but the fact is that she could inspire people and make them believe in her and through that accept her as PM.
Your first question is entirely leadership based. None of the four options that you mention strike me as being natural leaders (although I think Yvette Cooper might have something – I am impressed that she has the balls to stand up for what she thinks on Brexit rather than hiding like Corbyn) and if I’m right about that, they would be hampered in a GE campaign (just as Brown and Milliband were in 2010 and 2015 respectively). What I’m not sure you have thought through though is where that leaves Corbyn. We don’t have to speculate about how he would perform in a GE, because we found out in 2017 – he failed miserably despite circumstances that should have strongly favoured Labour. You can talk about how people chant his name in grime clubs, but that doesn’t put him in charge of the country. I think he is not a leader, mainly because he speaks only to his supporters and not to the public at large. He makes a fine speaker at protest meetings and events where the audience self select to be likely to support him. He is like a fish out of water otherwise.
The second issue is one of policy. As you know, I think Labour’s polices would lead to a wholesale destruction of jobs and wealth that would help nobody. I know that you choose to disagree (just as I’m sure you are aware that I think your position defies any sort of logic) , but, in a sense, when it comes to the likelihood of Labour winning, whether you or I am right is irrelevant. It’s enough that I and many others believe what I believe and that belief informs where we are likely to put our X when voting.
I think it possible that any of the four leadership candidates that you mention would have had at least a fighting chance of ending as head of the largest party had they run on more mainstream policies.
The Tories made the same mistake as you in the 2017 election when they focused solely on leadership and let Labour have the run of the policy hen house and, crucially, failed to change tack when the ‘strong and stable’ line started to fall apart.
I think both main parties (and the Lib Dems) have a leadership issue at the moment. Corbyn isn’t up to much and it is difficult to see who is waiting in the wings (animal favours Starmer, but he has broken cover and come out as a hard Remainer, which will alienate himself from the Northern Labour Party). May has ruled herself out of leading the Tories into another election campaign and it is just as hard to see where their next leader will come from. It may involve a fight for the heart and soul of the party with someone like Rees-Mogg facing off against someone like Ruth Davidson.
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