O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[WanChaiMiller]

Transcript of Thatchers Lancaster house speach 1988 where she outline the massive benefit to UK businesses of the Single Market. Worth a read.

https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107219

[ragingpup]

Those are interesting articles, ranting.

It’s important to bear in mind that the sample sizes used in polls can be fairly low – perhaps a couple of thousand people – because it gets expensive to use large samples. It’s also important to bear in mind that opinion polls can be skewed to give the answer that the body commissioning them wants to hear. It’s generally a good idea to root around in the sample size and methodology used.

Setting the above aside, however, and accepting that the polls are accurate, they must be a huge cause of concern for you.

A few weeks after the poll reported in the Independent article, a very large opinion poll was held across the UK, in the form of a General Election. The sample size was in excess of 32 million and on the question ‘would you like a Labour government’, the answer appears to have been ‘not really’ (in fairness, they said the same about the Tories, but less emphatically).

So if the polices are right, there has to be another obstacle to Labour winning as opposed to not being trounced, doesn’t there? And I would suggest that the only reasonable explanation is that large numbers of people neither like nor trust the London Labour Party cabal who are currently at the top table (I appreciate that at this point, disparaging comments about the mainstream media generally appear – those pesky newspapers keep actually reporting things that The Great Leader has said and done over the years).

As I mentioned above, if success for you is Labour not getting wiped out as opposed to winning, you have nothing to be concerned about. Close those curtains, rock that carriage and maybe get the lads and lassess from the grime clubs to make train noises.

I have already explained why Labour came up in the polls. The Tories made the error of trying to fight the election on personalities alone with the ridiculous ‘strong and stable’ strap line. That was always risky (particularly as they must have known from the outset that May would decline to take part in televised debates etc.) They should have switched to policy as soon as that strategy started to unravel.

It seems nothing will change your mind from the comforting delusion that Labour only gained from the Tories poor campaign, and with the rather rabid fear you have of Corbyn, I can understand that you have to think that way to stop yourself twitching.

But leaving Corbyn the personality aside for the moment, I and the thousands of other Labour members were out speaking to folk on the doorsteps in the run up to the last election, and what surprised me was how little people knew about the manifesto at the outset of the campaign and how popular they were as we spoke to them about the policies.

The YouGov findings in the article is pretty accurate as of my discussions with people, both Labour and Conservative:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...ive-2017-gener

Now whilst we'll all agree that Labour came from miles behind and didn't quite win, something very notable was happening that is important for us on the Left going forward.

Look at the key findings:

1. As may people voted Labour because of Corbyn as voted against because of Corbyn (citing him personality as the reason for the vote/non vote)

2. The biggest factor when casting the vote: 28% of people voting Labour gave the reason primarily as being because of their manifesto policies. Whereas the biggest reason people voted Tories was because of...Brexit.

This is pretty much exactly what I heard at the door.

So, what does this mean going forward? WEll, assuming that Labour keeps the same direction with policies that it puts into it's next manifesto, what is likely to be the next Conservative hook? Brexit, at best (if it gets a kind of deal) will be in the past, so little of the pull over from the UKIPs and ex-Labour voters that swung away due to recent years of referendum fun and at worst (highly likely) a huge pool of voters who will feel betrayed at the conservative's inability to deliver a satisfactory deal (in the eyes of their Bexit focused voters).

I'm up for a change of leader, but contrary to your views here, I think that we'd be foolish to move away from the policies of the last election.

I'd say that on this evidence, the future looks pretty bleak for the conservatives, and with the hundreds of thousands of members at the doorsteps next time around, I think we just need to keep that sharp pole heading right for your divvied derriere!

[ragingpup]

Corbyn has argued, and is continuing to argue personally to May that the way to build consensus in parliament and solve the deadlock over the backstop is to forge a Customs Union agreement. You may not agree with or like that, but that is his argument, made long and made hard in opposition to May's direction.

Now please respond and be clear (you do have a tendency to duck out of questions that you find difficult) What other argument would you like him to put over?

And this...

[ragingpup]

And finally, what would you like a Labour Party to stand for, as distinct to the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats? You obviously feel very passionately about the current Great Leader and seem to indicate that you might support a Labour government if the conditions were right. But what conditions might they be? What would a Labour Government that you would like to see actually look like? What would they stand for?

And this...

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

According to today’s Observer newspaper a number of Labour MPs are considering starting a new centre-left party because they are unhappy with Comrade Corbyn’s stance on brexit.

Right, left or centre what a furkin mess this all is.

[ragingpup]

1. So, do you think that historically, the Labour Party have had the same problem with Eurosceptics as the Conservatives that ultimately led Cameron to try and solve the problem once and for all by putting the referendum into the 2015 manifesto?

2. When Labour was in power under Blair and Brown, was there similar anything like the internal warfare that forced Cameron to make the referendum a 'thing'?

3. If Corbyn had agreed to meet May 2 weeks ago, how might have this led to him having "more of an input" than he has today?

And this...

[KerrAvon]

It seems nothing will change your mind from the comforting delusion that Labour only gained from the Tories poor campaign, and with the rather rabid fear you have of Corbyn, I can understand that you have to think that way to stop yourself twitching.

But leaving Corbyn the personality aside for the moment, I and the thousands of other Labour members were out speaking to folk on the doorsteps in the run up to the last election, and what surprised me was how little people knew about the manifesto at the outset of the campaign and how popular they were as we spoke to them about the policies.

The YouGov findings in the article is pretty accurate as of my discussions with people, both Labour and Conservative:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...ive-2017-gener

Now whilst we'll all agree that Labour came from miles behind and didn't quite win, something very notable was happening that is important for us on the Left going forward.

Look at the key findings:

1. As may people voted Labour because of Corbyn as voted against because of Corbyn (citing him personality as the reason for the vote/non vote)

2. The biggest factor when casting the vote: 28% of people voting Labour gave the reason primarily as being because of their manifesto policies. Whereas the biggest reason people voted Tories was because of...Brexit.

This is pretty much exactly what I heard at the door.

So, what does this mean going forward? WEll, assuming that Labour keeps the same direction with policies that it puts into it's next manifesto, what is likely to be the next Conservative hook? Brexit, at best (if it gets a kind of deal) will be in the past, so little of the pull over from the UKIPs and ex-Labour voters that swung away due to recent years of referendum fun and at worst (highly likely) a huge pool of voters who will feel betrayed at the conservative's inability to deliver a satisfactory deal (in the eyes of their Bexit focused voters).

I'm up for a change of leader, but contrary to your views here, I think that we'd be foolish to move away from the policies of the last election.

I'd say that on this evidence, the future looks pretty bleak for the conservatives, and with the hundreds of thousands of members at the doorsteps next time around, I think we just need to keep that sharp pole heading right for your divvied derriere!

Another interesting link, ranting.

The Tory figures appear to support my position …. The Tories went into that election thinking all that that had to do was put ‘strong and stable’ May alongside The Great Leader and the electorate would do their thing, but that went very wrong, very quickly and, incredibly, the Tories didn’t change tack. The outcome - just 5% of Tory voters cited her as a reason for voting Tory – the main thrust of the Tory campaign... It says it all really. Didn’t you notice?

Will the Tories make the same mistake again? You would like to think not, but, then again, I was open mouthed when they did it in 2017, so who knows? I would agree that they have a lot of things working against them though, not least the age of the average party member and what I think is the lack of obvious talent to take them forward. And, of course, the number of people who lived through the last period of old Labour government in the 70s and understand what it actually means is slowing diminishing in numbers, so demographics is against them. And underneath that is that the story of post-war politics in this country. The electorate try periods of Labour government, find out the hard way what that means and then vote the Tories in for long periods.

As for Labour, only 28% of people who voted Labour said they did so because of their policies… In other words, they were outnumbered by the 31% of people who said they voted for them because they were ‘anti-Tory’, because they ‘always voted Labour’, who didn’t like Teresa May and who ‘didn’t know’ or thought they were the best of ‘a bad bunch’.

I don’t have a rabid fear of The Great Leader, I have a fear of what he would do to this country with his job destroying brand of forgot-to-grow-up student militancy politics. The sharp end of your poll is going to leave empty factories and offices and full jobcentres.

I’m glad that you are happy though and, for my part, think Labour should keep The Great Leader in office.

[KerrAvon]

For the sake of argument lets take the EU grant out of it Wan Chai .

However my point is this , membership of the EU guarantees you nothing in terms of keeping company's in the UK , absolutely zilch .

In fact Nissan could have moved their production from Sunderland anytime they wanted .

The EU protects nowt

The EU doesn't stop companies leaving, animal. Nobody is claiming that there are any guarantees. If circumstances change to make a country unattractive - say a sudden hike in corporate taxes, an increase in union power or excessive and expensive regulation - they will go. But membership of the Single Market and Customs Unions provides an incentive to stay, because it makes it easier and cheaper to do business with the remainder of the EU.

I hope this helps.

[ragingpup]

Another interesting link, ranting.

The Tory figures appear to support my position …. The Tories went into that election thinking all that that had to do was put ‘strong and stable’ May alongside The Great Leader and the electorate would do their thing, but that went very wrong, very quickly and, incredibly, the Tories didn’t change tack. The outcome - just 5% of Tory voters cited her as a reason for voting Tory – the main thrust of the Tory campaign... It says it all really. Didn’t you notice?

Will the Tories make the same mistake again? You would like to think not, but, then again, I was open mouthed when they did it in 2017, so who knows? I would agree that they have a lot of things working against them though, not least the age of the average party member and what I think is the lack of obvious talent to take them forward. And, of course, the number of people who lived through the last period of old Labour government in the 70s and understand what it actually means is slowing diminishing in numbers, so demographics is against them. And underneath that is that the story of post-war politics in this country. The electorate try periods of Labour government, find out the hard way what that means and then vote the Tories in for long periods.

As for Labour, only 28% of people who voted Labour said they did so because of their policies… In other words, they were outnumbered by the 31% of people who said they voted for them because they were ‘anti-Tory’, because they ‘always voted Labour’, who didn’t like Teresa May and who ‘didn’t know’ or thought they were the best of ‘a bad bunch’.

I don’t have a rabid fear of The Great Leader, I have a fear of what he would do to this country with his job destroying brand of forgot-to-grow-up student militancy politics. The sharp end of your poll is going to leave empty factories and offices and full jobcentres.

I’m glad that you are happy though and, for my part, think Labour should keep The Great Leader in office.

Lol. So you have just added together that the number of people voting Labour because of their policies is marginally outnumbered by people voting Labour for ALL other reasons! And you're putting that over as an argument?! Nice one!

[great_fire]

Can't see the Remainers rioting if we leave with no deal.

Millennials who actually couldn't even be arsed to vote in the referendum (but sure have moaned about the result thereafter) are hardly going to get out of their bedrooms and away from social media long enough to riot.