O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[KerrAvon]

Also another thought. What would the DUP make of a no brexit scenario? They want us to leave with the Irish back stop issue sorted but what if we don't brexit. They are not keen on that either.

Would they still support the govt in the confidence and supply agreement? In which case, if they didn't, could there be a general election looming?

Someone should write a book/film about this fiasco and make a few bob out of it!

(Kerr could be Rees Mogg or Boris Johnson in the film version!)

The DUP are hard Brexiteers. They don’t want the back stop sorted - they just don’t want it all and believe that neither the UK nor the EU would impose a hard border (they are probably wrong on that – the EU will make the Irish introduce border controls to protect their Single Market).

There is no chance that the DUP would support the current Labour leadership in a no confidence vote. Corbyn is a friend of the pIRA and the Republican cause. The support of the DUP might not even be crucial, however, as I think The Independent Group might well vote with the government in a no confidence vote – they have not exactly been treated in an adult fashion by the Labour Party, with threats of them being ‘crushed’ etc. and they are in no position to fight a General Election at the moment. I’m not entirely convinced that Labour should want a GE either – The Independent Group are being very successful at attracting moderate Left Labour voters, with the latest opinion polls showing support for TIG at 18% and that for Labour down to 23%.

If its actors you are after, you should ask raging.

[rolymiller]

What interesting and relevant questions Roly.

The position is this:

Parliament set a hard Brexit date of 29th March (see section 20(2) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018) and also authorised the government to trigger Article 50, which sees us exit on that date.

The cumulative effect of that is that the default position - and the only position that does not require the express approval of Parliament - is a no deal exit on 29th March.

Assuming that Parliament continues to block the May deal and ‘directs’ the government to seek an extension to Article 50, the ball moves into the EU’s court, as it would require the unanimous approval of the remaining 27 EU states to allow such an extension. If just one EU country says no, then extension doesn’t happen and the options would be for Parliament to either agree a deal in advance of 29th March or for us to leave on that date with no deal. The third option would be for the UK to unliterally revoke its Article 50 notification and remain in the EU, which, given the outcome of the Supreme Court case brought by Gina Miller, would require primary legislation which I don’t think the government has any intention of introducing (and which probably wouldn’t be passed, in any event).

There are no guarantees that the EU would approve an extension to Article 50 – the mood towards the UK in Brussels is not a particularly benign one at the moment. The countries that do a lot of trade with us and fish in our waters would be keen to extend, but there are countries that don’t have much of a relationship with us. In practice, Merkel might well whip those countries into line, however. It also has to be borne in mind that it would suit the EU for the UK to stay and the continued uncertainty that an extension would bring might also benefit them as it would probably result in companies switching investment to them and away from the UK.

A short extension is probably necessary now, given the raft of legislation that would be needed to support leaving with a deal, but a substantial extension simply kicks the current can down the road in a big way.

Thanks for that Mr Kerr. but correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't May said today that she has agreed that if there is a majority vote for it, that we won't have a no deal brexit now. Does that apply just to the 29th march only or to all future brexit deadlines should they be extended.

[KerrAvon]

Thanks for that Mr Kerr.

You are welcome.

I would add that Labour supporting a second referendum is probably a bit meaningless too. I don’t see how the relevant legislation would be introduced into Parliament (but who knows what is going on in Bercow’s head) and I think it far from clear that there would be a majority in support of it – a significant number of Labour MPs are likely to vote against it. I fear a series of extensions that would cause continuing economic damage.

[KerrAvon]

Thanks for that Mr Kerr. but correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't May said today that she has agreed that if there is a majority vote for it, that we won't have a no deal brexit now. Does that apply just to the 29th march only or to all future brexit deadlines should they be extended.

I've not really followed what has been said today, but that is not my understanding of the new position. As I understand it, Parliament is going to be given the option to vote for the May deal, no deal or delay. The problem with that third option is that it weakens our bargaining position with the EU, doesn't take us any further forward and allows the damaging uncertainty for business to continue. And as I have mentioned, if no deal is rejected by Parliament and an extension is refused by the EU - and the point has to be reached where it will be - then the views of Parliament become irrelevant and the no deal default kicks in.

Personally, I wonder whether the EU will refuse to extend beyond the European elections in May. If we are still members, I can see the UK returning large numbers of UKIP MEPs who would disrupt the European Parliament and generally act in boorish manner.

[rolymiller]

Govt defeated again. Summat has got to change now she can't keep flogging the same dead horse. But what next? Think if parliament votes not to have a no deal brexit tomoz there could be some unruliness outside rhe h of p.

My gut feeling is that there will be a watered down brexit now probably with a common market 2 type carry on. Failing that I think they could take the voteto the people. Think it would be a last resort though more likely May resigning or a general election.

Do you know what though. From day one I knew this would go to the wire.

Interesting political times.

[Exiletyke]

Govt defeated again. Summat has got to change now she can't keep flogging the same dead horse. But what next? Think if parliament votes not to have a no deal brexit tomoz there could be some unruliness outside rhe h of p.

My gut feeling is that there will be a watered down brexit now probably with a common market 2 type carry on. Failing that I think they could take the voteto the people. Think it would be a last resort though more likely May resigning or a general election.

Do you know what though. From day one I knew this would go to the wire.

Interesting political times.

Have a read Roly

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/0...ust-beginning/

[rolymiller]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47614074

Well it looks like she can't pedal the same old rubbish now and bully people into voting for her same old idiotic version of brexit.

Looks like either we will come out with no deal on the 29th or get a long extension to sort it all out. I would think the short extension would be ruled out now cos we ain't got a plan B in sight.

[mellowmiller]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47614074

Well it looks like she can't pedal the same old rubbish now and bully people into voting for her same old idiotic version of brexit.

Looks like either we will come out with no deal on the 29th or get a long extension to sort it all out. I would think the short extension would be ruled out now cos we ain't got a plan B in sight.

The amazing thing is that she didn't know about the rule, her advisers didn't know about the rule and the Opposition didn't know about the rule.
An absolute disgrace the lot of them 😡

[great_fire]

Strange how in 1975 we had made all these preparations in case people voted to leave yet this time they'd made hardly any preparations at all.

Almost like they never intended to honour the vote should Leave win.

[animallittle3]

The amazing thing is that she didn't know about the rule, her advisers didn't know about the rule and the Opposition didn't know about the rule.
An absolute disgrace the lot of them 😡

Not had to be used since 1920 apparently and it would be a big ask to think that the current collection of numb skulls who portray themselves as MP's and advisors would actually know anything about parliamentary procedure .

I think this current situation is known as a constitutional crisis .