O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[KerrAvon]

There are only two ways to leave the EU - with a deal or without one. At the risk of labouring the point, the first option requires the agreement of Parliament, whilst the second one doesn't.

Go figure on where we are now heading.

Most of the options discussed yesterday were about the future relationship and so related to the Political Declaration rather than the withdrawal deal.

Perhaps Parliament should agree the withdrawal deal and then argue about the future relationship during the transition period it creates for that very purpose?

[ragingpup]

So two options that Labour was whipping for came out on top.

There's a surprise.

Most popular doesn't matter. Unless there is a parliamentary majority for any option it will not be possible to get the necessary legislation through.

No deal is the default option and does not require a majority.

No deal was vastly voted down. It will not happen. Stop using it as a threat. It's gone. Won't happen. We don't want it, the EU don't want it.

[Exiletyke]

No deal was vastly voted down. It will not happen. Stop using it as a threat. It's gone. Won't happen. We don't want it, the EU don't want it.

Who doesn't want it?
It's not a threat it is the legal position

[KerrAvon]

No deal was vastly voted down. It will not happen. Stop using it as a threat. It's gone. Won't happen. We don't want it, the EU don't want it.

I'm not using anything as a threat. Why would I? As far as I am aware there are no MPs on here.

The position in EU law is that we leave on 12th April. The UK Parliament can 'vastly vote down' anything that it wants, but it has no jurisdiction over the EU.

You may be right and the EU writes the UK a blank cheque by granting a further extension. On the other hand, they may say that it's time to end the farce, take the no deal hit and get on with other business. If they do that, what are you suggesting? That we pretend that we are still members?

[Exiletyke]

I'm not using anything as a threat. Why would I? As far as I am aware there are no MPs on here.

The position in EU law is that we leave on 12th April. The UK Parliament can 'vastly vote down' anything that it wants, but it has no jurisdiction over the EU.

You may be right and the EU writes the UK a blank cheque by granting a further extension. On the other hand, they may say that it's time to end the farce, take the no deal hit and get on with other business. If they do that, what are you suggesting? That we pretend that we are still members?

. On the other hand, they may say that it's time to end the farce, take the no deal hit and get on with other business.[/quote]

Are you seriously suggesting that the EU would do that?

[KerrAvon]

They are the largest trading bloc in the world and are far better placed to take the buffeting of a no deal than us. They may also conclude that they would benefit from companies switching operations from the UK to mainland Europe in the aftermath of a no deal.

It only takes one of the 27 to say no and an extension doesn't happen. To that end, what the EU 'don't want' as per raging is irrelevant. There are a number of countries that don't do a lot of trade with us and so would be largely unaffected by any disruption.

So, yes.

[animallittle3]

If May gets her deal through then fine.

If not, then they will give us a longer extension to discuss our way towards a solution that looks as if it will be a re-negotiation along the lines of the current deal but with customs union arrangements and workers/consumer/environmental guarantees in it. Either that or legally binding additions to the PD that give us guarantees of this direction of travel. This is even more important now May is leaving and we have a chance of a more extreme Brexiter in charge of the next stage.

Those are the options. Let's see if May can get her deal through.

Still well short of the numbers needed raging according to the media , DUP ain't shifting their stance and many in the ERG haven't either .

I suspect a further extension from the EU may be granted to accommodate the Tory leadership situation , May might have to make way as early as next week should her deal be voted down yet again , that's if Bercow allows it at all that is .

[Exiletyke]

They are the largest trading bloc in the world and are far better placed to take the buffeting of a no deal than us. They may also conclude that they would benefit from companies switching operations from the UK to mainland Europe in the aftermath of a no deal.

It only takes one of the 27 to say no and an extension doesn't happen. To that end, what the EU 'don't want' as per raging is irrelevant. There are a number of countries that don't do a lot of trade with us and so would be largely unaffected by any disruption.

So, yes.

Pure speculation
It's the Germany & France types that run the show as you well know
What evidence is there that the lesser mortals in the EU have ever exerted themselves in this affair they will do as theyr'e told

[ragingpup]

Still well short of the numbers needed raging according to the media , DUP ain't shifting their stance and many in the ERG haven't either .

I suspect a further extension from the EU may be granted to accommodate the Tory leadership situation , May might have to make way as early as next week should her deal be voted down yet again , that's if Bercow allows it at all that is .

I think that the leadership situation is the biggest threat to leaving with a deal. If the EU see the election of a hard Brexiter to lead further negotiations, that might swing them to walk away?

[animallittle3]

I think that the leadership situation is the biggest threat to leaving with a deal. If the EU see the election of a hard Brexiter to lead further negotiations, that might swing them to walk away?

The only hard brexiter that would get on the ballot paper is Boris Johnson and even in these crazy times I doubt he'd get the gig .

Sajid Javid could be a possibility .