Originally Posted by
KerrAvon
I've read and re-read your post, Tony and I can't work out which part of mine you think is daft.
It is lazy and simplistic to attribute the referendum to divisions within the Tory Party over Europe (but you are certainly not alone in doing it). The rise of the Referendum Party and it's successor, UKIP arose from a growing disquiet in the country over Europe. That had very little to do with the Tories and far more to do with the growing federalism within the EU and a measure of good old fashioned xenophobia after the influx of people from the Accession 8 countries in 2004.
The UK has repeatedly resisted EU federalism - you have the budget rebate, the opt out on various EU Treaties on issues like the Social Chapter, Schengen arrangements and most notably membership of the Euro - and the EU was becoming two speed in consequence of that. From a political point of view, something had to give and it did in 2011 when the EU effectively circumvented a British veto on a response to the financial crisis. From that point, the die was cast.
It is lazy and simplistic to talk about how similar the Johnson deal is to May’s (but you are certainly not alone in doing it). Of course it is – the vast majority of it is technical and non-controversial (that is one reason why the demands of Parliament for time to scrutinise the Johnson deal was a tad disingenuous – they had seen most of it almost a year ago).
I think you are right when you say that MPs are conflicted but I can't go as far as saying that they all are. There are numerous motives driving the actions of MPs. Barron is clearly doing what he thinks right, knowing that the boys from Momentum can’t do anything to him. Some will be doing what they think represents the wishes of their constituents. Others will simply be following their party whip for fear of damaging their careers.