O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[ragingpup]

I believe things will change next week when MV3 is voted down and the tories kick May out of number 10 .

This seems to me to be the way this deadlock will be broken and the only currency we have at this moment in time .

May will have to take the fall in the national interest as she is often quoted as saying .

Whilst the country is leaderless although you could make a case that we've not had a leader for 3 years then clearly this changes the narrative on both sides of this debacle .

Who becomes PM after May's departure is anyone's guess .

Tend to agree. I think it is clear that as long as there is change, the EU will push back time enough for a new idea to come forward from MPs. I don't think MPs are going to swallow the No Deal threat. Otherwise the EU would have said leave next week with no deal if May's deal doesn't pass.

The real threat is if the MPs still can't unite behind an alternative, with even still splits being between Common Market 2.0 and 2nd vote. This could still hinder a consensus - either could be even less popular than May;'s vote. Hence the real frustration that we didn't have indicative votes when we should have done. A failure of both of these options to gain a better consensus than May's shold have left to us reasonably leaving with May's deal. But we didn't so it's all ****ed up!

[wendun]

I have absolutely no idea if Brexit is a good or bad thing and no idea of what form of Brexit is most desirable. I suspect noone else does either. The certainties of so many in the face of so much obvious uncertainty is worrying but typical. I have never understood the antipathy of so many Brits towards the European Union. My own feeling is that when (if) we leave the UK's unity will not survive a decade. The Scots will go and the Catholics of NI are seething. The GFA was only possible because of the UK's membership of the EU which allowed Nationalists to see themselves effectively as dual citizens. Watch for it all kicking off again.

[mellowmiller]

I'll say from the outset that I'm not sure if I've got this right but I'll put it out there anyway.
As I understand it, the decision to leave the EU on 29th March 2019 was enshrined in law and it will now require a series of legal manoeuvres to allow the date to be delayed.
Is it not possible that a separate legal challenge could be raised to prevent the proposed delay from happening and what what would be the situation if this occurred?

[Exiletyke]

Tend to agree. I think it is clear that as long as there is change, the EU will push back time enough for a new idea to come forward from MPs. I don't think MPs are going to swallow the No Deal threat. Otherwise the EU would have said leave next week with no deal if May's deal doesn't pass.

The real threat is if the MPs still can't unite behind an alternative, with even still splits being between Common Market 2.0 and 2nd vote. This could still hinder a consensus - either could be even less popular than May;'s vote. Hence the real frustration that we didn't have indicative votes when we should have done. A failure of both of these options to gain a better consensus than May's shold have left to us reasonably leaving with May's deal. But we didn't so it's all ****ed up!

You seem to overlook the EUs desire to keep us in
No deal means no x billions & the burden to make up what we would no longer pay would fall mainly on Germany & France & Italy [Italy already up the creek without us leaving]
No deal was always the default position so why do you refer to it as a threat as it's not as though someone has recently made it up

[howdydoo]

It's the Millennium Bug Mark 2.

The world isn't going to end if we leave with No Deal or any sort of Brexit.


Same can't be said for democracy if we remain ........... If that really ever existed in the first place.

[caytonmiller]

I really struggle to work out why the negotiations are so complicated. Can someone correct my example if I'm wrong but as I see it
If we import a kg of cheese whilst were in the EU it 1 euro plus 5% tax/duty. Country's outside the EU pay 1 euro per kg plus 10% tax/duty. So does Britain want to pay 5% still or does the EU insist on us paying 10% ?

[ragingpup]

You seem to overlook the EUs desire to keep us in
No deal means no x billions & the burden to make up what we would no longer pay would fall mainly on Germany & France & Italy [Italy already up the creek without us leaving]
No deal was always the default position so why do you refer to it as a threat as it's not as though someone has recently made it up

I refer to it as a threat, as May is using it as a threat to force MPs to back her deal. It was a mistake to set up No Deal as a default position in my opinion – how the majority of MPs must regret how that decision was taken/worded now. But it isn’t inevitable – there is a majority against No Deal in the house, as there is in the country. We just have to find the approach to a deal that gains the most consensus and agree with the EU to work towards that. You’re very right that the EU will give us time for that as they would be financially reckless not to. But they won’t put up with May or any replacement maintaining a deal that cannot secure a consensus.

A way forward is to delay Brexit, put forward the indicative votes, see which one gains the biggest consensus and agree to leave with that. That may be May’s deal. I’d be happy with that.

[great_fire]

I have absolutely no idea if Brexit is a good or bad thing and no idea of what form of Brexit is most desirable. I suspect noone else does either. The certainties of so many in the face of so much obvious uncertainty is worrying but typical. I have never understood the antipathy of so many Brits towards the European Union. My own feeling is that when (if) we leave the UK's unity will not survive a decade. The Scots will go and the Catholics of NI are seething. The GFA was only possible because of the UK's membership of the EU which allowed Nationalists to see themselves effectively as dual citizens. Watch for it all kicking off again.

Young people are so conservative and wimpy now, scared to leave the EU "safe space", used to be older people who were conservative and didn't like change.

[Exiletyke]

I refer to it as a threat, as May is using it as a threat to force MPs to back her deal. It was a mistake to set up No Deal as a default position in my opinion – how the majority of MPs must regret how that decision was taken/worded now. But it isn’t inevitable – there is a majority against No Deal in the house, as there is in the country. We just have to find the approach to a deal that gains the most consensus and agree with the EU to work towards that. You’re very right that the EU will give us time for that as they would be financially reckless not to. But they won’t put up with May or any replacement maintaining a deal that cannot secure a consensus.

A way forward is to delay Brexit, put forward the indicative votes, see which one gains the biggest consensus and agree to leave with that. That may be May’s deal. I’d be happy with that.

How do you know there is a majority in the country against no deal?
At what point in the past 2 to 3 years did you conclude it was a mistake to set up no deal as a default position
I'll not press you for a link like some would do but would be happy to take your word as to when you reached epiphany

[wendun]

It's the Millennium Bug Mark 2.

The world isn't going to end if we leave with No Deal or any sort of Brexit.


Same can't be said for democracy if we remain ........... If that really ever existed in the first place.

This is what I meant in my comment about certainty. Noone has suggested the "world will end" but it is at least a realistic possibility that we will be poorer by an unspecified percentage which will in turn have ramifications for public spending etc. I must inhabit a different universe: 90% of my friends voted to Leave and yet they all now see merit in a reconsideration. Not one feels affronted and not one is about to take to the streets if Brexit is reversed. How giving the people another say can be considered the death of democracy escapes me.