O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[ragingpup]

Where have I said that I am in favour of a 2nd referendum? My last line in the quote you reply to was "I'm personally happy to leave the EU but will argue to keep as close trade ties to the EU as possible". So please take that to mean that I am not supporting a 2nd referendum.

You then say "In my view, the country voted leave and leave we must. I’m happy to do it on the best terms possible, short of the Brexit in name only of deals like Norway has.". So are you convinced that May's deal is the best that we can get?

So what do you think we should do if this doesn't get through the commons? At this point do you want us to walk away with no deal? Or would you try to make an amendment to the deal and take it back to the EU? (if they allow us to)

If so, what amendments would you be willing to accept?

Kerr? Thoughts?

[Exiletyke]

That’s a great post animal, just got back from a w ankers conference 220 there at the genting club in Sheffield. Please don’t be scared of anyone who has the ececonomy at heart.

My view is simple, more high paid jobs, the UK being a high tech hub which we are with fintech. Leeds and Manchester is leading the way outside London....let’s bring it to South Yorkshire

Did you meet KA there?

[KerrAvon]

@ raging.

I tend to look at what people mean rather than what we say.

I think you are getting confused again and conflating May's deal with the future relationship. Do I think it is the best withdrawl deal we can get? That's a bit of a daft question as 'best' is necessarily coloured by the personal views of the person assessing it. You can see that in Parliament where Remainers are opposing it as they still hope for another referendum and hard Brexiteers are opposing it, because they want to walk away without a deal. Labour oppose it because they see political advantage in doing so.

I think May's is a flawed deal, because you don't need to see the AG's legal advice to know that we risk having the backstop being used against us as a bargaining chip. If you accept the premise that we are leaving, however and also accept that May would not choose to accept the backstop in its current form if there was any sign that the EU would shift on it then, yes, it's the best deal.

The backstop needs to be time limited, but the EU says that it won't shift on that. If defeated, I think May will go back and ask and we will then have some weeks of brinkmanship to see if the EU or Parliament blinks first.

The danger is that the May deal, an alternative deal or another referendum all require a parliamentary majority, whereas a no deal exit just requires that Parliament fails to agree before 29th March 2019.

What is Momentum telling you to think at the moment?

[bogsdollox]

She's got to go. A staunch Remainer she should never have been leading the Brexit process. She's listened to the London opinion, renegued on her election Brexit promises and let down the majority who voted to leave. If this "deal" goes through we will remain slaves to the corrupt capitalist EU and without a vote to boot. Can see an imminent election especially with the Labour Party's Brexit tactics being solely geared to bringing down the Government.

I must agree ,the only thing on the mad Labour radar is to get into power on the back of Brexit deadlock but wouldn't it be interesting if Labour won an election but the people then have a "peoples vote" (because last time people didn't vote it was cyber folk)
and the Leave vote was re-affirmed ,what the f**k would the lefties do then?

[KerrAvon]

Leavers are likely to be a bit cross with Labour over their political gaming. I think you would see a UKIP resurgence at Labour's expense.

[ragingpup]

@ raging.

I tend to look at what people mean rather than what we say.

I think you are getting confused again and conflating May's deal with the future relationship. Do I think it is the best withdrawl deal we can get? That's a bit of a daft question as 'best' is necessarily coloured by the personal views of the person assessing it. You can see that in Parliament where Remainers are opposing it as they still hope for another referendum and hard Brexiteers are opposing it, because they want to walk away without a deal. Labour oppose it because they see political advantage in doing so.

I think May's is a flawed deal, because you don't need to see the AG's legal advice to know that we risk having the backstop being used against us as a bargaining chip. If you accept the premise that we are leaving, however and also accept that May would not choose to accept the backstop in its current form if there was any sign that the EU would shift on it then, yes, it's the best deal.

The backstop needs to be time limited, but the EU says that it won't shift on that. If defeated, I think May will go back and ask and we will then have some weeks of brinkmanship to see if the EU or Parliament blinks first.

The danger is that the May deal, an alternative deal or another referendum all require a parliamentary majority, whereas a no deal exit just requires that Parliament fails to agree before 29th March 2019.

What is Momentum telling you to think at the moment?

Wooo. Claws are out!

Searching hard for your actual opinions. I see that I have just about extracted a grudging opinion that you think that May's deal is the best we can get.

But what I'm interested in is, if as is most likely,the deal is rejected, not what you think will actually happen but what you personally would like to happen? What would your preferred outcome be in this eventuality?

[KerrAvon]

How are the claws out? You Momentum boys are far too easily flustered and sensitive.

My opinion is clear, which is that you asked a daft question based upon a questionable premise.

If the deal is rejected, my view of what I would like is irrelevant given that I will have no real opportunity to influence what happens. The prospect of a no deal exit worries me, but if Parliament chooses to sleep walk into that then I will have to live with it just as everyone else will.

I hope this helps.

[ragingpup]

How are the claws out? You Momentum boys are far too easily flustered and sensitive.

My opinion is clear, which is that you asked a daft question based upon a questionable premise.

If the deal is rejected, my view of what I would like is irrelevant given that I will have no real opportunity to influence what happens. The prospect of a no deal exit worries me, but if Parliament chooses to sleep walk into that then I will have to live with it just as everyone else will.

I hope this helps.

Your opinion isn't irrelevant, you're just scared to give it. Very different thing.

If the deal is rejected we have, amongst others, the following possibilities:

1. No deal
2. Seek to renegotiate with softer Brexit, it appears some in cabinet as well as others have plan b along lines of Norway +. This will come at some compromise to fom and ecj as we've agreed
3. Seek to renegade with harder Brexit if the EU permits. If it does, most likely get improvement on exiting backstop but what would be the trade off?

Which of those options is most preferable to you at the moment?

[KerrAvon]

You are falling into the same trap as David Davis did in the negotiations with the EU and which many parliamentarians are now, which is failing to note the difference between what you want and what it is possible to get.

In my opinion, May's deal getting Parliamentary approval is more likely than a Norway deal or further referendum getting approved.

But keep asking daft questions for the sake of it if you wish. Is it a Momentum thing?

[ragingpup]

You are falling into the same trap as David Davis did in the negotiations with the EU and which many parliamentarians are now, which is failing to note the difference between what you want and what it is possible to get.

In my opinion, May's deal getting Parliamentary approval is more likely than a Norway deal or further referendum getting approved.

But keep asking daft questions for the sake of it if you wish. Is it a Momentum thing?

It's got nothing to do with Davis, or Momentum. The actual likely outcome isn't relevant to my question, which is about you. You're always the first to pull apart other opinions when they state their preferred outcomes; you've done it to me when I said that I would prefer to renegotiate to lose the backstop at the expense of a softer Brexit, to solve the NI issue. I accept that this will be a compromise to the FoM and some aspects of ECJ that we would have to renegotiate from. There, cards on table. That's what I would like to happen. Not so hard is it? My hope then would be that this would get the majority in the Commons to get the deal done and avoid the hard Brexit, or being caught in a terminal backstop with Macron holding the EU end of the agreement in one hand and a large fish in the other...

So, again, what would be your preferred outcome out of the options that are before us?


(for the record, I'm not a member of Momentum, nor am aware of their policy pushes on this. I think they're going for a 2nd referendum aren't they?). I'm just a Labour Party member. Just so we're clear. If you want further clarification on where Momentum and I might differ I could look them up and fill you in on the matter, in just the way that you can't in relation to yourself and the current conservative party policies! )